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Will a weak low bring rain to northern NZ this weekend?

Computer models for this weekend are picking a small area of low pressure to the north of Northland – and while there’s disagreement about how deep the low will get (and how much rain it will produce) there does seem to be some agreement that rain or showers are possible in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Waikato this Sunday.

Just like last Sunday the rain is mostly out at sea, but is skirting the narrow northern New Zealand coastline. This means there’s a very fine line between dry weather and wetter weather and so the forecasts may change a bit as we continue to fine tune the data.

On Sunday the risk for rain is the greatest as the area with rain/showers dips south-eastwards. Winds may also become brisk from the east to north east for a time on Saturday or Sunday.

Don’t plan on a wet weekend just yet – the “wet” forecast for some places on Sunday only has moderate confidence at this stage with plenty of dry conditions in the area too. It’s a tug of war between high and dry and wet and cloudy.

In the South Island a weak front will try to head north, bringing a few showers to the southern half of the island this weekend – but falls apart on Sunday as it heads north.

Generally speaking many regions will have a dry weekend this weekend – but like last weekend we’re in a “high pressure sandwich” with rain or showers top and bottom and mostly high pressure through the middle of the country.

Check out our daily weekday weather videos for more details on this Weekend!


– Image / Noon Sunday, GFS rain and wind map / WEATHERMAP




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