Every new month we take the opportunity to look back at the last one – examine some of the most interesting weather features, and also look ahead – at what the next month has in store!
June was a dramatic month, with heavy snow falling above 300m in Otago and Southland.
Temps below -20 were reported through the South Island’s interior, and torrential rain flooded Dunedin, Hokitika and Wanganui.
We predicted June would be warm and wet to start with but we also accurately predicted the snow event.
We also predicted that Canterbury would get some rain – but not enough to end all of the big dry.
Temperatures for the first half of the month look to be above average in many regions, before leveling out in the second half.
Our latest guidance doesn’t show any signs of any “significant” polar blasts in the first few weeks of July.
July should start off wet in the west, dry in the east, and warmer than average for most places – overall July looks quite mild – with plenty of wind from the west, north and east .
*Update: Some models are showing a possible polar snap around July 8 – but it may fall as rain below 200m. We’ll update again on this early next week.
We’d be expecting a return to west to south west winds later in the month, which could help create another polar snap later in the month, or into August.
Northland & Auckland
It’s looking wet to start July, with rain and showers in the offing on Friday this week, after showers on the first and a mild feel for this time of year.
The second week should see a period of rain as a low crosses the country, accompanied by westerly quarter winds stretching into week 3.
There may be a sting in the tail of July for the north, with a cold, wet southerly system looking like impacting on this region to finish the month.
Waikato & The Bay of Plenty
Again, Friday is shaping up to be wet, with westerlies bringing showers and possible rain on both the 3rd and 6th of July, while week 2 also brings the risk of showers and rain.
The 3rd and 4th weeks look much drier, and mostly frost-free for these parts of the country, with northeasterlies and mild weather in the offing
Gisborne, the Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa
July starts as a bit of a mixed bag, with showers, rain and dry spells changing hands frequently during the first two weeks – while warm northwesterlies will keep things fairly calm and settled.
A few showers with the NE flow to kick off week 3 otherwise we expect more mild, dry, weather with the chance of a wet southerly again in Week 4.
Taranaki, the Manawatu, Wanganui and Horowhenua
Another region facing a wet start to July, as showers and steady rain dominate across the first two weeks – something to look out for given the recent flooding.
The middle of the month looks drier, though the changeable westerly airflow could turn unexpectedly – so we will be focusing on these regions through the early part of the month to keep our readers up to date with the latest models.
The month could well end wetter and colder – as our current models show bigger lows in the Southern Ocean heading towards the country – though this far out it’s very hard to predict where they will end up.
The West Coast
A very wet first 8 or 9 days (torrential rain picked for Friday) should then give way to a dry spell – before the second half of the month looks changeable.
The Southern Ocean lows may affect West Coast weather heading into the final week of the month, but at this stage it’s hard to tell for certain when and where anything will affect the country.
Canterbury & North Otago, (plus West Coast spillover into east coast waterways)
July starts off dry for these places, though the 8th and 9th may produce some consistent rainfall, as well as spillover from the West Coast into Otago waterways after their heavy rain at the end of the first week. If a southerly sneaks in around then we may get snow moving in for a time to lower levels – but too early to lock in this event.
The second half of the month is looking mostly dry, with the chance of cloud and drizzly showers to begin Week 3 (due to the NE wind flow).
Winds will turn more nor-west, then westerly later in the week – making for mainly dry weather.
There’s the chance of another cold southerly in Week 4, but nothing is locked in yet.
Southland & Central Otago
It’s a showery start to the month, with rain or showers in parts of both regions until the 8th or 9th – when a cold southerly arrives then a high rolls in. The cold southerly may produce snow – but the models are conflicted at the moment on this.
Week 3 kicks off ‘mild’ for late July, thanks to winds from the north.
We expect more average temps to return into Week 4, with plenty of westerlies coming in this month.
on 1/07/2015 12:17am
Hi guys, I like you monthly forecast though I see an Antarctic blast bringing a fair bit of snow to the nation after 8 July, what do you guys see? Check snowforecasts 9day forecast
on 1/07/2015 4:34am
Hi there – yes there is snow likely coming then, but nothing that today confirms a definite nationwide significant event – ie, heavy snow in Christchurch, maybe Wellington and all over central North Island highways and farms. WeatherWatch has always had a focus on populated areas (urban and rural) and the bulk of those areas are below 250m – that’s because Fonterra fund these long range forecasts and so they are dairy farm focused. So when we do long range forecasts we focus more on the general extremes in more populated areas. Short term we have more resources to look at less populated places higher up. We don’t generally forecast for higher altitude areas except for Central Plateau, Queenstown and inland Canterbury simply because we don’t have the resources – we currently leave these other areas for MetService to generally cover day to day as they have enormous tax funding to forecast for these more remote areas. In saying all of that – short term we definitely cover bigger snow events so we’ll have very detailed mountain to sea level snow forecasts if we do get a decent snow event around July 8.
P.S Have updated the forecast above to mention the possible cold change then.
on 1/07/2015 7:41am
Cheers. And thanks for clearing things up! 🙂