A large high will this week hover over New Zealand while the first tropical cyclone of the season may be about to form near Fiji this coming weekend.
on 10/12/2012 1:23am
Thanks for that Phil you did spot that last week.
It will be very interesting to see what the low does, if it is a cyclone. What this one does may give us a pointer to what happens with future ones? I have noticed that they tend to follow very similar paths do you agree?
Maybe this is simply because the weather patterns around these systems is similar each year ?
on 10/12/2012 7:54am
Hi Dave – you know the saying ‘things come in threes’ – well the weather is very similar. Quite often we’ll have a series of events that are similar to each, perhaps lasting a few weeks. That’s because the highs and lows get into ‘ruts’ if you like – stuck in a holding pattern for a few weeks. That means if you have the right ingredients for a cyclone then one may form…then another behind it…and another…until the window for cyclone development closes – perhaps because a big high rolls in. Often when a cyclone forms – or any low north of NZ – there are a few others that start to spin and develop too within 1 to 10 days in a similar part of the region.
Our weather patterns can be changing daily, or stuck on a repeat cycle for days, weeks even months (months long events tend to be the ones that cause droughts, widespread floods etc). The patterns are forever changing but do tend to follow a similar pattern most years, until El Nino or La Nina comes in to spice things up a bit! But just like finger prints, no month or year is every exactly the same – that’s why this is a fun/stressful job!