Updated: 9.30am. A change to reflect the snow level in Canterbury being slightly lower then anticipated, a hint of warm advection going on in the atmosphere.
A low pressure system gradually moves closer to the west coast of the North Island during today, expect a front to move onto the west of the North Island this afternoon. There could be thundery falls associated with this front north of Auckland and about eastern Bay Of Plenty when it reaches there later in the evening or around midnight. The top half of the South Island sees rain with snow about the Canterbury high country.
Auckland & Northland
Cloud with increasing northerly winds, rain develops about Northland in the afternoon with heavy thundery falls possible as a front moves in from the west. Late afternoon rain moves into the Auckland area where thundery falls are possibly also however with a slightly lower associated risk. Heavy rain may still be an issue. As the front moves on heavy falls ease to showers.
Bay Of Plenty, Waikato & Central North Island
Northerly breezes with increasing cloudy areas, winds change northwest late afternoon with a period of rain then clearing later in the evening. About eastern Bay Of Plenty rain later in the evening may be heavy and thundery then easing after midnight.
Eastern North Island
Plenty of high cloud with sunny spells at times, light winds pick up from the north in the afternoon. A few brief spells of rain possible in the evening then clearing as winds tend northwest.
Western North Island
Cloudy spells with northeasterly breezes, rain develops in the morning about Taranaki then further south in the afternoon. Winds tend a little more northwest in the afternoon then change southerly overnight.
Cloudy with some rain developing in the morning, northerly winds. Winds change strong southerly later in the evening.
Marlborough & Nelson
Cloudy with rain developing in the morning, northeasterly winds. Rain heavy at times about Nelson and the surrounding area late morning and early afternoon. Rain eases to the odd shower later in the evening as southerlies freshen. Snow flurries overnight about southern and coastal Marlborough to 800m.
Rain with southeasterly winds tending southwest in the evening, snow to 500m this morning about Mid Canterbury, 600m about North Canterbury then lowering to 400m at night for most, possibly down to 300m at times. Rain and snow eases overnight. Rain during the day may be heavy at times especially about North Canterbury.
Morning rain easing to the odd shower in the afternoon and clearing, easterly winds tend gusty southeast after midday. Thick high cloud for the rest of the day from afternoon onwards.
Cloudy spells with south to southwesterly breezes, chance of a shower or two especially afternoon onwards and there may be a light snow flurry to about 500m but any flurries will be fairly minor and will likely not settle.
Mainly cloudy skies with light southeasterly breezes, a few showers move through from late afternoon then clear at night. There may be a light snow flurry or two to 500m.
Cloudy spells with west to southwest winds in the morning, winds tend more southerly by midday with a few showers moving through then clearing later in the evening. There may be a light snow flurry or two to 500m.
By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz
on 7/10/2013 9:04pm
Hi, what are the chances of thunderstorms in WBOP? Particularly around Tauranga? cheers!
on 7/10/2013 11:48pm
There is a risk for Tauranga, just not as high as eastern BOP. The way East Cape sticks out like that it catches these fronts and storms can often fire up there.
But yeah, in saying that Tauranga does have a chance near the coast, a moderate risk one would say. It may go off all guns blazing, I’m just predicting the most solid outcome, one would hope!