It’s becoming increasingly likely that a storm is going to move down from the sub-tropics and affect much of the North Island next week, reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.
In Thursday’s severe weather outlook MetService now has ‘moderate’ confidence of “extensive heavy rain and potentially damaging east or south east gales” for northern and north eastern parts of the North Island on Monday or Tuesday. That same low may also bring heavy rain to the North Island’s east coast and damaging gales to Wellington and Marlborough.
WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the door to the subtropics has been left wide open following last weeks low pressure system. “The previous low hung around for 12 days and left the door wide open for other systems. The low that we are predicting next week looks large and nasty and may well be the first ‘storm’ of 2010 for the North Island”.
Mr Duncan says residents in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Wellington should especially be aware of the latest forecasts, weather warnings and weather news.
“We may well be seeing droughts turn into floods” says Philip Duncan. “This is absolutely the last thing farmers were wanting when they asked for rain”.
Other North Island and upper South Island residents should also be aware of the severe weather threat next week.
on 21/05/2010 9:30pm
So how much rain and wind are we looking at. Are we looking at damaging winds as you know winds from the NE,E,SE can be quite strong and damaging in Te Aroha .Or is it still to early to predict.
Thanks keep us updated.
on 21/05/2010 8:27pm
I am surprised the media are not paying more attention to this developing system
on 21/05/2010 9:09am
Ill be keeping watch for this, make sure you keep it updated Phil. Been waiting for a Te Aroha late autumn soaking
on 21/05/2010 3:28am
Bring it on! looking forward to some rough weather, hopefully some will reach Canterbury. Just hope its not too severe for those up North though.
on 21/05/2010 1:23am
Yes it seems to all come at once.. 82mm since midnight.. and still raining steadily..
Mr. Duncan, if you could please spread the rain out a bit more evenly it would be very helpful 🙂
Not sure we really need that low coming early next week either..
on 20/05/2010 11:49pm
We have had 91mls since yesterday at Matakana and still raining steadily. Might even stand the cows in the barns tonight. Talk about extremes!!!
on 20/05/2010 10:49pm
Model runs on all GFS servers have this low swinging down the east coast of the South Island to about North Otago with strong winds and some heavy rain on late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This is the biggest low system i have seen so far this year and beats our previous one which has just departed off the country, possibly deepening to around 980hpa as it crosses the top half of the North Island.
Its going to be a rough ride for most of the country, a taste of winter only roughly 10 days away now.
on 20/05/2010 9:15pm
The rain has eased here at Puhipuhi to a cold drizzle from the south west, only a couple of hectares of ponding from a twenty four hour rainfall total of 67 mls.Most should drain away before the big event next week which is a concern because the soil is now unbelievably saturated here.
on 20/05/2010 8:20pm
Wow, blew like crazy here at South Head last night and still raining very heavy with some pretty good wind gusts. Thought this was supposed to move off to the east, looking at the metservice rain radar it seems to be stuck.
on 20/05/2010 7:04pm
We have real stormy weather today,this last low (last week) was like an anticyclone compared to this.