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Sub-tropics visit again Wednesday with torrential rain possible

Another large low is rolling in and this one will also be tapping into sub-tropical air, creating localised heavy downpours across northern New Zealand on Wednesday.

Most at risk is Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty, with perhaps Bay of Plenty having the highest risk for torrential rain into the afternoon and evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible as the warm sub-tropical northerlies mix with a late day/overnight southerly change.

The torrential downpours are hit and miss – use the rain maps we have to work out the highest risk areas in advance, then at the time use them along with the MetService rain radar to track the movements of these heaviest downpours.

Wednesday’s sub-tropical event is one of many so far this Autumn and Winter – with forecasting yet another low (a smaller one) coming in directly towards the upper North Island this Sunday, with hit and miss heavy downpours again and warmer than average air.

A cold change is coming!

If you’re wondering when the colder non-subtropical weather arrives then this might help – at this stage is forecasting a colder nationwide south to south west flow across the country from about July 5 to July 8, followed by a high. This could bring a return to frosts for some regions and some snow showers to ski fields in both islands.

Subtropics return mid-July
However, at the end of the high in July’s second week, it looks likely we’ll once again see a warm sub-tropical airflow return across some parts of the country with rain coming back to the north and west of both islands for a time.

– Rain map for 3pm Wednesday /




Guest on 28/06/2016 2:04am

I am surprised you do not mention the East Coast from Hawkes Bay to Wairarapa.

Weather models are picking up to 100mm, perhaps even 125mm of rain for these locations. With it being so dry along the East Coast at the moment, i would have thought the region would have been mentioned. 

WW Forecast Team on 28/06/2016 2:19am

Hi there, you should subscribe to CountryTV (Sky channel 081) as we have an indepth 10 day forecast every weeknight for rural viewers and we’ve been heavily focused on these regions, in particular coastal areas of Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay, over the past couple days (and last three months actually).

However the computer models have been very hit and miss with east coast rain lately (a week ago predicted a very wet Mon/Tues this week for Canterbury, instead it’s mostly dry).  We’re monitoring those areas incredibly closely, but our free news service here doesn’t cover every single moving part of every system especially when there’s so much change in various updates.  Hopefully this will bring much needed (overdue) rain to the lower North Island’s east coast, enough to properly reverse the bigger dry that has formed near the coastline.


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