A sub-tropical low is expected to develop in the next 24 hours and deepen rapidly as it moves into the Tasman Sea, but a large high over New Zealand leaves a question mark as to whether or not significant rain will make it into the Waikato region.
“The high we have over us is like a summer high, it’s very large and very strong but it is expected to slide away to the South East over the next 48 hours. That means a brilliant weekend in the South Island and lower North Island, while conditions will deteriorate over northern New Zealand”.
“Basically the faster the high moves away the better the chances are that rain will spread down over the north. It’s a wait and see game”.
Duncan says easterlies will pick up and become gusty over Northland on Sunday, with showers developing and spreading southwards towards Auckland and Waikato by Monday and Tuesday. “Confidence is only around 40 to 60% for rainfall in Waikato so not too high at this stage. There could be some heavy showers next week as warm air mixes with the cold air currently over us”.