Getting rain out of the clouds this summer has been like getting blood out of a stone with four medium scale droughts still in force and several neighbouring regions suffering from a ‘big dry’.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say this week is not only the first week of Autumn, but the first week of Autumnal weather.  “We have several fronts approaching New Zealand this week, most of them fall apart over us but most also bring varying amounts of relief to dry parts of the country” says head weather analsyst Philip Duncan.

Rain isn’t so likely for northern areas – last week a sub-tropical development pointed towards a 50/50 chance of rain sliding past northern New Zealand early in the week, but we’re backing away from that and focusing more on the Southern Ocean, where front after front will push north this week bringing rain to the West Coast and some spillover into the dry east.

By Thursday, Friday and Saturday these weakened rain bands and showers will push into the western and northern North Island, bringing some areas of relief.

Long range and week 2 of March is looking dry as large highs roll back in from the west. 

Risk of a Tropical Cyclone?

However WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters are also keeping a very close eye on a potential severe tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea in two weeks time.  One to watch due to its proximity to New Zealand but far too early to lock in any direct hit possibilities. “Predicting a cyclone weeks in advance for New Zealand is a bit like predicting which side of the roof the balanced egg will roll. It could go down either coastline, or not reach us at all – but the area it is going to form in does certainly put New Zealand in a potential track”

Overall the rain this week will be useful for those lucky enough to get it – however our four drought zones look likely to be some of the driest regions this week.

The four regions are North Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough and Wairarapa.  North Otago has the best chances of wetter weather in the next six days, while Marlborough may well be the driest of the four.  

– WeatherWatch.co.nz