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New sub-tropical low should bring heavier rain than Zelia

A band of rain is slowly creeping closer to the upper North Island Friday afternoon as the sub-tropics once again start to move southwards, but says a newly forming low further north is one to keep a closer eye on.

The publicly owned rain radar network shows rain moving in from the north east, and although light it is bringing some rain to areas on the east coast from Whangarei to Coromandel Peninsula and near Waiheke Island, in the Hauraki Gulf.

However it’s the incoming low on Sunday and Monday that is likely to bring a drenching to some areas. has upgraded their Auckland forecast to include “heavy rain” on Sunday as this developing low moves south east towards Bay of Plenty and East Cape.

The weather news authority says it’s been monitoring the models closely and believes that this new low will likely bring wetter conditions than that of ex-tropical cyclone Zelia for residents in the upper North Island.

Zelia tracked a little too far west of the upper North Island to deliver much needed rain earlier this week in places like Waikato, Northland and Bay of Plenty.

It appears Sunday and Monday will see heavy rain falling across northern and north eastern parts of the North Island, including Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne.  Waikato is expected to again be on the borderline of the heaviest rain but is confident some parts will get healthy rainfall totals.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says conditions look more promising for substantial rain this weekend than they did before Zelia moved in.  “We think this new low will bring in more rain than the system earlier this week because this one is just starting to develop into a new low pressure system – it’s healthy and placed well.  Zelia was old, tired and falling apart by the time she reached us”.

However Mr Duncan says unlike Zelia this system won’t bring heavy rain to the West Coast of the South Island – where a sunny weekend is forecast.  Clouds and drizzle may affect the east coast of the South Island however with a much cooler easterly wind.

The MetService says they have “high confidence” of heavy rain falling across a number of North Island regions and people are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings. will closely monitor this incoming low and will provide extra updates across the weekend.


didi on 22/01/2011 12:35am

we want rain but how much will be the question dont want flooding do you think we will get flooding in kerikeri

WW Forecast Team on 22/01/2011 1:32am

Hi Didi.

Yes there is a risk of flooding around Kerikeri – definitely keep up to date with the latest weather warnings if you live in a flood prone area.

– WeatherWatch

Kelly on 21/01/2011 8:44am

Have u seen the latest computer generated images on Taranaki is gunna be devestated i have never ever seen a blob that big hit the area that i live in yet we only have a weather watch but looking at sunday to tuesday OMG we will experience flooding BIG time i have never seen a blob that big ever the cyclone we had in July 07 was nothing compared to this scroll down to 7am monday and all i can say is OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!

Diana on 21/01/2011 7:49am

Well we did not get any from the last lot “Zelda”, can’t see us getting any from this lot
Ground is cracked, grass is dead, winds are annoying.. fire danger is far too high.. Manawatu/Rangitikei needs some please

Brendan Pratt on 21/01/2011 5:51am

Hi there, so there could be a bit of rain Saturday night and Sunday? I note that the Met Service has a server weather watch inforce. What do you think? heavy rain or like what it was earlyer in the week?


WW Forecast Team on 21/01/2011 6:30am

Hi Brendan,

Your’re definitely more likely to get rain this weekend/Monday from this new sub-tropical low.  Zelia was never going to bring a lot of rain to you but this low will be tracking right into the Bay from the north west.  Wait for rain warnings.

– WeatherWatch

Paul on 21/01/2011 3:02am

At Lower Puhipuhi eastern Northland, we have been in cloud all day with 15mls since first light on top of the 28mls from Zelia, maybe a flood looming on Monday!

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