A ridge covers most of New Zealand on Monday however we do have what will be Ex Tropical Cyclone Hola sliding down the northeastern side of the upper North Island during the day, a southwesterly airflow then spreads over the country on Tuesday.
On Monday most of New Zealand (land mass) is looking quite good weather wise, some rain or showers affects Fiordland during the day. A few spits may make their way into Southland and Central Otago at times also, especially evening.
For the upper North Island we see a different picture. Rain about Northland, Auckland and across to East Cape spreads southwards into Hawkes Bay and the Central North Island by midday. Rain may be heavy with Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel looking like good targets in the morning then easing from afternoon. Rain becoming heavy about East Cape / Gisborne and gradually Hawkes Bay from afternoon before clearing away overnight.
There doesn’t look to be any overly heavy rain with this system but it’s not to say that some heavy rain wont fall. To refine the situation a little more, northeastern parts of Northland look to get the heaviest rain in the morning then East Cape in the afternoon / evening.
Image – 12th March 2018 10:00am Rain / MSLP map – weathermap.co.nz
Winds in general are strong from the southeast in the morning, changing to the south or southwest in the afternoon about Northland through to the Waikato. Southerlies becoming strong about Hawkes Bay and especially Gisborne / East Cape from afternoon then changing southwest there later in the evening. Winds will likely be up around gale force for many in the upper North Island tomorrow from Northland across to Gisborne.
To refine it down a little more it’s going to be northern / eastern Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel that will see the strongest winds with this system. This will be during Monday morning, as winds swing to the southwest in the afternoon they will still be strong then conditions will start to ease in the evening. Winds of 80 to 120 km/h are possible in these areas with gusts upwards of 150 km/h.
Image – 12th March 2018 7:00am Wind / MSLP map – weathermap.co.nz
Later in the evening / overnight this storm will have passed then we can look forward to Tuesday where we have a cooler southwesterly airflow over New Zealand. Most western regions can expect cloud and showers while it’s drier out east however a southwest change moves northwards along the South Islands East Coast bringing a few showers, reaching Christchurch around midday and Marlborough in the evening. The North Island’s East Coast does well on Tuesday with temperatures reaching into the mid to late twenties.
Please keep up to date with Metservices weather watches and warnings for Monday if you live in the upper North Island especially northeastern coastal fringes.