A low pressure system fires in an easterly quarter airflow over the South Island on Monday meanwhile most of the North Island has northwesterlies. Unsettled weather for the majority to follow.

Most of the North Island has a northwesterly airflow on Monday, expect areas of cloud and showers at times. Gisborne and perhaps Hawkes Bay have a dry start however with warm temperatures developing. In the afternoon showers ramp up with isolated heavy falls and some thunder possible, this includes Hawkes Bay and Gisborne (Gisborne more so about the ranges). These heavy downpours will likely form on convergence zones (areas where winds meet).

Sometimes these zones can be a little hard to place so often a broad area is included in outlooks as to where downpours / thunder could occur but at the end of the day some may see them some may not. At this stage southern Northland, Auckland, eastern Waikato and Bay Of Plenty sees a higher risk of these downpours in the afternoon. Also Taranaki across to Hawkes Bay and about Gisborne.

Wairarapa and Wellington sees rain with heavy falls possible, this rain slinks a little southwards as the day moves along easing from the north. Southern Wairarapa and Wellington (especially eastern Wellington) sees heavy rain for much of the day. Winds from the southeast.

Marlborough and Nelson has a rainy day, heavy falls at times especially for Marlborough and the northwest Nelson area. Conditions dry up about Nelson overnight. Canterbury has areas of rain for much of the day, inland areas will see more persistent falls while nearer the coast conditions will be a bit more patchy with dry spells now and then. Winds from the east or southeast. Otago has cloudy skies near the coast, the odd shower or drizzle patch at times especially Otago Peninsula northwards. Central Otago has longer dry spells with perhaps even some sun breaking through, but a shower now and then can’t be ruled out either. Southland and Fiordland, on average associated with inclement weather (especially Fiordland) will by quite dry with areas of sun and warm temperatures. Coastal Southland sees breezy easterlies. A slight disclaimer, Fiordland may see an isolated shower or two about the ranges late afternoon / evening.

For North Westland, expect areas of cloud with a shower or two possible, showers become more likely when you head into Buller. South Westland is mainly sunny with some high cloud. Winds from the southeast. Once you go into the ranges up in the main divide you will likely head into shower actiivty however moving in from the eastern side of the South Island.

High’s in the low to mid twenties for the upper North Island, mid to high teens for the lower North Island. Temperatures in the low to mid teens for the eastern and upper South Island then returning to the high teens or perhaps early twenties for the Southland and along the West Coast.

Image: Monday 26th November 2018 4:00pm MSLP / Rain map – weathermap.co.nz

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz