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Easter weather hinges on the big low.

Over the last few weeks we’ve had a lot of people asking about a forecast for Easter.

Now that we are getting a bit closer, it should be a bit easier to produce a forecast that we can have some confidence in.

Note the phrase “should be” in the preceding sentence.

Here’s the problem; the big low that could produce some very stormy weather for the North Island during the week next week will have a big effect on Easter’s weather as well if it shows up.

But, since the formation, track and timing of this low are very much in question right now, it makes an Easter forecast pretty tough.

But, I will give it a shot.

And keep in mind, this is all based on the current scenario which has about a 40% chance of panning out.

At this point, it looks like the low will pass just to our east, moving very slowly southward.  That would mean we would start to feel the effects on Tuesday with increasing winds on the North Island.  On Wednesday, rain would arrive on the North Island.  Late Thursday into Friday, the rain and wind would start to affect the South Island.

Now, by Friday the low will really start die out.  On Saturday, it will weaken even more but will still be just off our eastern coasts.

By Easter Sunday, the low will continue to weaken, however the remnants of it will still be the major player in our weather.

What this boils down to is; Easter Sunday is looking wet for about a third of the country.

Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato are looking like they could be dry.  Much of the South Island also looks like it could be dry with the exception of Marlborough and Canterbury.

Temperatures are likely to be rather cool.  Daytime highs could struggle to reach the upper teens in most areas.  Lower teens are likely for the deep south of the South Island, especially the coastal sections.

So there you go.  There is your Easter forecast as it stands right now.

However, given that it all hinges on what this low does, my confidence in it is not real high.

Stay tuned…

Photo by NOAA

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph


sw on 28/03/2012 8:13pm

The latest models off ecmwf has rain starting monday next week and mostly confined to the top 1/3 all week them moves back into the tasman sometime over easter.

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