I ventured out today on to my lawn in Auckland…a blustery but warm nor’wester blowing in my face.  The sun poking through the clouds that were quickly jetting by.  I stepped out on to my lawn, my feet squished down in the grass and liquid soil squirted out around my toes.  I walked right across the lawn to capture this above image.  It is the only flower on my property at the moment.  A bright , happy, little daisy basking in the temporarily dry, sunny weather.  A small beacon of hope that spring is inching closer. 

I have been fascinated by the photos sent in over the past week.  Remarkable photos of Mother Nature throwing a real tanty.  But I felt I needed to put something more positive out there today.  End the week on a high note.  Unfortunately that photo will probably have to do…as the actual weather forecast isn’t too flash.   But, like any good story, there’s some good news and some bad news.  Because most people want to end on a positive note, I’ll start with the bad news.

A new low is forming today in the Tasman Sea (and there could be another one by late next week) and it will merge with the large area of low pressure currently centred over the South Island.   This means yet another weekend ruined by rain or showers – especially over the North Island and especially in the west.    Late thunderstorms are possible tomorrow with isolated squalls that could cause some isolated areas of damage, especially if this fast moving warm front/cold front combo creates isolated tornadoes, which is a possibility. 

Things will go down hill rapidly Saturday afternoon – the ground at Eden Park will be wet with heavy showers likely around or throughout the match.

On top of this rain the government’s forecaster, MetService, has several weather warnings out for central and western parts of the North Island – mainly the high country – saying further heavy downpours will meet warning criteria during Saturday afternoon and night – and that will put even greater pressure on the rivers and streams around the region. 

SO…I talked about some positive news to go out on?  Well, animated satellite images available at weatherwatch.co.nz clearly shows rain clouds easing along the Canterbury coastline.  It appears that the worst is now over.  The system has ripped itself apart now and only fragments of rain bands remain.  The storm will gradually fall apart, weaken and move away into the South Ocean. 

The other piece of good news is that at this stage – and I emphasise “at this stage” – lighter winds and sunnier skies are in the forecast for some of next week.  I realise this is like going through the garbage to find scraps of nice food, but there will be patches of sunny skies and light winds next week, mainly over the North Island.   And to completely end on a positive note, we are officially two thirds through winter.  In a few weeks, Spring officially begins…and I saw lambs and daffodils yesterday across the Waikato and they both looked oblivious to flood waters lapping along the fence at the bottom of the paddock.  A beacon of hope that Spring is just around the corner.

Blog, by head weather analyst Philip Duncan.  Post a comment on this story by clicking below.