Updated 3:05pm — Heavy showers are developing and drifting eastwards slowly across two thirds of the North Island this afternoon.
As we pass through the warmest part of the day a number of big showers have formed over the North Island – and Northland in particular.
Between Kaitaia and Whangarei, especially in the Bay of Islands area, there some very heavy downpours right now.
Auckland region is mostly dry but a couple of big isolated showers are affecting a few areas to the north east and south east of the city.
The general flow since this morning has been from west to east and that is the same movement of the showers this afternoon.
Big showers are moving into Coromandel Peninsula, Thames, Waikato and dotted across various parts of the North Island’s interior as far south as Manawatu/Hawkes Bay area.
Forecasting this type of weather is a bit tricky – pinpointing where a big shower cloud might form and then precisely drift in a light breeze.
Many of you have noticed the chopping and changing of forecasts for some northern areas today. This is due to a small but intense areas of showers – and not much wind to blow them around.
Latest guidance for the upper North Island today shows a high chance of rain or showers – but plenty of long dry spells in the mix too. It’s a day that’s mainly dry but with a high risk of a downpour. As we go through this afternoon that is exactly what we are seeing.
Showers will continue to build this afternoon under warm conditions – and many showers will drift east, but a few may simply grow where they first formed – then fade out in the same spot towards evening.
Elsewhere in NZ a mainly dry day is expected.
Most showers will ease this evening – but a few may pop up agan tomorrow afternoon in the Upper North Island, although possibly more isolated than today.