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An update on our potential for a late week storm…

On Saturday, I talked about the chance for seeing a potent low come in off the Tasman and bring us some rough weather for this coming Friday.

Now it looks like that may be delayed a few days.

We are still looking at a mid-week cold front to unsettle the weather across both Islands on Wednesday into Thursday.  Some showers are likely to leak onto the North Island, but it looks like the South Island will catch the brunt of this.  Now, it doesn’t look like widespread heavy rain will be associated with this disturbance.  However, a few heavier showers and a couple of thunderstorms are possible.  Gusty winds will also likely be an issue.

The low that was originally expected to arrive on Friday now looks like it may wait until Sunday to get here.

But, this set up still looks to be a very wet one.  Heavy falls and gusty winds are possible with this low.  The areas at most risk for this are Nelson, Marlborough and Wellington.  Showers could develop as early as Sunday afternoon with the heavier stuff pushing in for Sunday night into next Monday.

The news for the first full week of March is not all bad, however.

The models are indicating that large high pressure is going to build in right after this low moves out.  That would mean several days in a row of pleasant weather.

That means the way it looks now, starting on Tuesday the 6th, we could be looking at 4 to 5 days of dry and quiet weather.

Stay tuned…

Photo by Mark Lucas

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph


ben g on 27/02/2012 4:57am

lightening over rangi, seen from belmont. few nice thunder storms prowling round the city. 5.56pm mon. now intense rain

Andrew on 27/02/2012 2:19am

Hey Phil. Please tell me Rotorua on Sunday is going to be fine. Got a off road half marathon to do down in the forest. Cheers

WW Forecast Team on 27/02/2012 2:31am

Actually at this stage Rotorua may be a great place to be – especially if we have a southerly.  Means the nights may be cold but the days should be mostly sunny.

Feel free to check in again with us closer to the weekend

Cheers – and have a great time!

– WW

Dale on 27/02/2012 12:26am

I get married in Kumeu this Thursday, any chance of it staying dry late afternoon/early evening?

WW Forecast Team on 27/02/2012 2:33am

Some models do show conditions improving into the afternoon and evening – but if the timing is out by a few hours then that makes the difference between it being wet or dry as Thursday pm is on the edge of the rain band.

Check in with our forecasts on Wednesday evening for the most accurate update.

Cheers – and all the best for your very important day 🙂

– From WW


Dale on 27/02/2012 2:41am

Thanks guys, I will check in again on Wednesday.

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