On Thursday we have a moderate to strong northwesterly airflow over much of the country, while a ridge lies over the northern part of the North Island.

A low pressure system and associated front moves onto Southland & Otago (and Fiordland) during the morning, and is fairly slow moving – it’s not till later in the evening that we see it start to move north.

That means it’s sunny in Auckland, Northland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, with westerly winds.
Some cloud increases in the afternoon, about the Waikato and Bay of Plenty, while it stays sunny along the East Coast, with light winds.
Northwesterlies pick up from afternoon about the Wairarapa.
The rest of the west of the North Island looks mostly cloudy during the morning, along with west to northwesterly winds.

In the South Island, sunny areas and increasing high cloud dominate out east, while northwest winds build inland, and may spread to the coast in the evening.
Overnight, winds change southwest and pick up strength in Banks Peninsula, bringing showers, while the southwest change doesn’t reach Marlborough till dawn on Friday.

It’s looking cloudy on the West Coast, with the odd shower, and heavy rain about Fiordland – spreading northwards later in the evening.
Rain for Southland from morning too, becoming heavy at times in the afternoon and into evening.
Otago sees thick high cloud, and the odd spot of rain, but it’s not till late afternoon or evening that rain moves in, as winds change southwest.

– Aaron Wilkinson & Drew Chappell, WeatherWatch.co.nz