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A steady flow of lows means more rain for an already wet January

We just can’t seem to catch a break this month.

It’s like a conveyor at your favourite grocery store.  The pattern we are in keeps tapping into tropical moisture and storms systems (lows) and bringing it all from the trolley (Coral Sea) to the cashier (New Zealand).

Unfortunately, there aren’t too many of those little things you put in between the orders giving us an extended round of summer weather either.

So, is this weekend a washout?  What about the rest of the month?

This Weekend-

It looks like this low headed for New Zealand this weekend won’t bring as much widespread rain to the country as last weekend’s did.  Another positive point is it looks like Nelson will be spared from the worst.  However, it still needs to be watched.  WeatherWatch Head Analyst Philip Duncan compares forecasting tropical lows to balancing a tennis ball on your pointing finger with the finger being Northland.  He says “The ball (low) can drop down either side, and that’s why tropical lows are always one to watch.”

But, Duncan adds, “…the latest models seems to insist this will track down the eastern side of Northland and straight into Bay of Plenty and East Cape – possibly even a little further east than that (fingers crossed).”

The rain is expected to peak between Sunday and Tuesday.

The South Island may see some rain on Saturday.

The rest of the month-

After this weekend’s low clears us on Tuesday, models are pointing to another low coming in late next week, probably Thursday the 12th.  That would then move into the North Island on Friday the 13th (how appropriate) and then move out on Sunday the 15th.

Just in time for the next low.

No, I’m not kidding.

The super long range models try to bring yet another low in around the Wednesday the 18th and keep us wet into the weekend of the 21st and 22nd.

Now, keep in mind.  That’s a long way off.  There is a lot that can change between now and then.  However, the last few weeks in January may be just as wet as the first few weeks of January if the pattern doesn’t change.  If the conveyor doesn’t get pointed to a different cashier.

As of now, we don’t see that happening anytime soon.

From Weather Watch Analyst Howard Joseph with Head Analyst Philip Duncan


Guest on 4/01/2012 8:04pm

Such a bad summer so far, it is enough to make you want to move to Australia.

Peter of Dunedin on 4/01/2012 8:49am

I disagree with your feature statement – please amend it to ” an already wet North Island/Northern half of the South Island but more of the same dry for most of the South Island”

West South on 4/01/2012 7:20am

What about Southland we seem to be at other end of scale, we norm get 150mm month but have only had 30m since 24th Nov. Massive drought for us and starting to bite. Very strange weather pattern at the moment is it not?

Geordie Eade on 4/01/2012 7:17am

What about Southland we seem to be at other end of scale, we norm get 150mm month but have only had 30m since 24th Nov. Massive drought for us and starting to bite. Very strange weather pattern at the moment is it not?

Guest on 4/01/2012 6:22pm

Very dry in the south at the moment. But the rain up north is more news worthy for the Auckland based and biased media. A ‘wet new years’ they said across the country. Little or no mention of the fine and hot celebrations over half the country. I am sure the over that period if most of the North Island was fine and the South had the rain, the focus would have been about the ‘glorious Coromandel’ and the ‘drought stricken north’. Northland is now known however as the winterless and summerless north.

deepsouthweather on 4/01/2012 6:40am

I havnt seen much rain in Southland!!!! Dont see alot coming!! Talking draught if it continues much longer, See this article in Southland times today

Zelda Wynn on 4/01/2012 5:07am

Great SW wind just started blowing in New Lynn North. Very dark clouds SE of us. Been a great sunny day!

sw on 4/01/2012 4:05am

They must be paying the cashier monopoly money or using sand to pay with,in a real supermarket the conveyor wont keep delivering goods.

RW on 4/01/2012 2:39am

I can only hope you’re wrong! Coming after our second cloudiest year in 3 decades, and relatively cloudy Dec-Jan already for 09/10 and 10/11, locally we’re lining up another Dec-Jan for the same fate! The last time either of these 2 months with our longest days had a decent sunshine surplus from stable summer weather was January 2008…

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