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Will a tropical low hit us at Easter?

A deepening tropical low north of New Zealand is continuing to appear in our long range weather maps but the exact path of this low is still not 100% certain says

Since late last week the low has been appearing in our weather data and as we head closer to the long weekend there still remains a question mark over whether it will affect the North Island with rain. is confident the low will be close enough to generate large waves off the Gisborne coast and also bring a strengthening southerly flow across the country, however as far as rainfall goes there is still no firm word.

“It looks unlikely that the low will make a direct hit on Northland unfortunately but there’s a heightened risk of showers for Bay of Plenty and certainly East Cape on Sunday or Monday” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

“This is probably a rare occasion when despite it being a long holiday weekend many people actually want it to rain”.

Mr Duncan says the most likely forecast is that a high will remain over the North Island this weekend while the sub-tropical low brushes East Cape on Sunday or Monday with cloudy but dry skies for many northern regions and showers about East Cape.’s current long range forecast for Auckland shows no rain for the next 10 days however Mr Duncan says the weather patterns are changing.  “Despite the dry forecast we are seeing more lows forming around New Zealand.  We’re finding more and more that our 10 day forecasts aren’t just “dry and sunny” and instead we’re having to closely monitor nearby lows.  It’s just a matter of time before one of those lows reaches our driest regions”.


sw on 30/03/2010 6:09pm

According to some models its now started to show a low for the western side of the NI signalling a change at the end of easter.

Dave on 30/03/2010 12:31am

Hi Phil

Hopefully that low will go far enough out to sea but it will make for dangerous seas on the east coast. The swell is already running at 2metres so it will be ugly at Easter. Big tides will also cause more surge so I would urge all boaties to be very careful.


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