TROPICAL STORM DEEPENS

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TROPICAL STORM DEEPENS

20/02/2008 11:00am

Where Will The Rain Fall?

PLUS: West Coast Beach Danger

A deep low in the northern Tasman Sea is gathering strength as it moves closer to New Zealand today but the question on many peoples lips is where will the rain fall. Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says with each day the rain fall predictions seem to be getting worse for farmers. “Every computer model we use is predicting something different making this very hard to forecast, but at this stage it appears the large high currently over New Zealand wont be getting out of the way fast enough for decent rain clouds over Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty”. Instead Duncan says strong winds will be the main feature for most people with this system. “Gales are possible in coastal parts of Auckland tomorrow or Saturday morning with easterly gales in eastern Waikato regions. The gales will then shift to eastern areas south of Canterbury during the weekend”.

Further South and Nelson may be the first dry area to get some decent rain. MetService has a severe weather watch for heavy rain this Saturday in the Nelson region saying there’s a “moderate risk”. Heavy rain is likely over the South Island’s west coast but it’s still too early too see how much will spill over into dry farms in Otago and Southland. “I think high catchment areas might receive some good rain but lower areas still may only see gales and showers. It’s a bit of a broken record but we’ll still need to wait another day or so to have the clearest picture for the far south”.

The storm is expected to merge with another two lows in the Southern Ocean creating what Duncan describes as a ‘super low’ and he says this could make beaches extremely dangerous. “West coast beaches from Auckland to Fiordland will see a big increase in powerful waves and dangerous rips over the next day or two. Experienced surfers may find conditions excellent in places like Piha and Raglan with big waves and strong easterlies”.

Huge waves are also expected this weekend and into next week for the Southland coast. “Boaties in Southland should be aware that swells could be several metres high by Sunday or early next week” He says all boaties from Auckland to Southland on both coasts should pay extra attention to the Government’s marine forecasts over the next few days.

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