A sub-tropical low predicted to deepen significantly this coming weekend may just miss New Zealand according to the modelling over the past 48 hours.
However WeatherWatch.co.nz says those in the upper North Island should still be aware of it’s presence next early next week, in case forecasters and modelling shift it closer to New Zealand.
The low, which will be coming from the Coral Sea/New Caledonia area will is part of a recent strengthening of La Nina conditions.
It’s likely to track in a south east direction from New Zealand’s north west – putting it on a trajectory that can easily hit us or completely miss us. It’s the most difficult angle to predict due to the shape of the upper North Island says WeatherWatch.co.nz.
The low’s track will heavily depend on the location and strength of various belts of high pressure over and surrounding New Zealand, which will help block and guide the low.
However despite the tracking of this particular low the models are showing an even larger low likely to push in from the Tasman Sea around Wednesday next week. Lows from the west have a much greater chance of hitting us due to our very long western coastline and we’ll keep you posted on this future development.