WeatherWatch.co.nz is today predicting an increased likelihood of unsettled weather coming towards New Zealand in the coming 10 days – and it’s somewhat related to the Queensland floods.
The warmer than average sea temperatures off eastern Australia – all part of La Nina’s effect in our part of the world – are responsible for producing a number of major rain makers in the Australia state – causing flooding not seen before in the region.
This coming week high air pressure – which acts as a wall blocking rainmakers – will clear New Zealand to the east, allowing a path of low resistance for fronts and lows coming out of the northern Tasman Sea/Coral Sea area.
WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts that by the end of this week high humidity, cloud and nor’easters will return to many parts of New Zealand – especially the upper North Island.
At this early stage it’s too hard to know if we’ll get rain, or simply thick cloud and a little drizzle. Either way, this link up to the weather in Queensland could result in much needed rain moving back into Northland, Waikato and other fairly dry regions in the coming weeks.
But as we’ve seen in Queensland, too much rain can cause serious problems.
Winds from the easterly quarter will affect Auckland, Coromandel and the Bay of Islands for at least a week, starting from this Wednesday. The wind can be unpleasant for campers along the east coast, bringing lower daytime highs, more cloud cover and choppier seas.
WeatherWatch.co.nz will closely monitor this new shift in our weather pattern and will bring you more updates throughout the coming week.
In the meantime – make the most of the sunny, hot, calm weather which is forecast to stick around until at least Wednesday.
– Homepage image / File, Franz Krippner
on 2/01/2011 7:35pm
thats a big call to make!
I dont think the models have quite decided yet how close the trough/low/front will come to northland, and if it will weaken and the high persist, yet…
would be great to get follow up rain though for farmers/growers!
on 2/01/2011 11:28pm
Hi – yep that was a bit of a call. I still think we are more vulnerable over the next 10 to 14 days but my predictions remains that the first two weeks of January will be drier than average for most regions. La Nina’s certainly a tricky one to forecast – but that spices up our jobs a lot more!
The models have backed off a little today (as I thought they might do)…so tonight and tomorrow morning will be important. To me it’s more about the lack of high air pressure in the Tasman to protect NZ more than anything else – so the potential for a sub-tropical low is therefore increased. And yes – we definitely need more rain for farmers… (although I won’t feel guilty about enjoying a rare almost cloud-free day in Auckland today!).
on 3/01/2011 12:03am
The latest ECMWF model run does show a nice looking compact low from the tasman to cross central NZ relatively quickly this thursday with a likely associated rain band to cross the NI….
looks a likely outcome now I think, as this sat animation
show the low is getting more organised and is moving relatively quickly S and will be captured by a front in the SW tasman and that will steer it onto central NZ
as you say, La Nina favours this sort of thing (lows from the north tasman/sub tropics moving onto NZ)
on 2/01/2011 7:22pm
Happy New Year Everyone…..
Queensland got there flood from Cyclone Tasha So i hope that means something like that could be born and head towards us…..
I still believe we overdue for another Bola which hasen’t happened since 1988
There supposed to happen every 7 years and we haven’t had much Hurricane activity since Bola…..
on 2/01/2011 11:51pm
Drena and Furgus were the last TC’s to directly affect NZ…back in dec 1998 I think?
so, yes, overdue ….been saying it each summer…maybe this summer…LOL
on 3/01/2011 12:54am
Summer of 96/97 was when they both hit – actually doing a story about being overdue for cyclones right this minute!
on 3/01/2011 3:09am
Thanks Phil I cant wait to read it……
Can you also post that Article as a Facebook article also so i can send it to some of my friends overseas……
The tropics look as though they are getting organised to the North West……
on 3/01/2011 4:26am
Absolutely – it will be on Facebook around 6 to 6:30am