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Next Week: Yet another burst of severe weather possible for NZ

New Zealand is stuck in a severe weather rut and another low next week could see yet more severe weather warnings for wind, rain and snow – and once again it may be around Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. continues to partner with The Weather Company/IBM which through their global computer power is again forecasting another depression to cross New Zealand next week.

Using reliable global data from them and local knowledge here in New Zealand we’ve accurately picked three consecutive Thursdays of severe weather before the two tax funded New Zealand Government forecasters got around to it – and again this week we’re warning of another possible severe weather event next week.

“It’s far too early to lock it in but various reliable models that we trust, on top of the super computers at IBM/The Weather Company, are all suggesting another low next week is looking quite likely”.

The low next week brings the risk of heavy rain, strong winds and heavy snow – but being so far out the data can only go so far. “We can see there will be a developing low – one capable of producing some severe weather – but we need to wait a few more days to lock in where the severe weather potential will be and which parts of New Zealand may or may not be impacted”.

Long ranges models operate by taking the data today and then using it to look forward. So each update should improve on itself as you get closer to the date.  In the same way a torch beam loses intensity over distance so too do long range forecast accuracy, but they are a great general guide and especially helpful for those who work outdoors or travel. The low may only hit the North Island, or it may be a nationwide event – either way the early heads up can be very useful to those who are planning. says that only today have the models picked the low next week to be more nationwide, before that it was more North Island focused. “This means we need to still wait a bit more to lock this in. So in the meantime, considering how much wet weather New Zealand has had lately, we can continue to focus on the positive large high pressure system coming in for the nation this weekend and early next week bringing two or three days of mostly dry and calm weather!” says head forecaster Philip Duncan.

Our next update on this incoming possible low will be over the weekend.

PLEASE NOTE, in the last quarter of 2017 will be upgrading our 1500 forecasts from Wunderground to forecasts and data sourced directly from IBM/The Weather Company. (And we’ll still continue our detailed WeatherWatch forecasts in the 6 main centres). IBM/The Weather Company is the same company that owns Wunderground but recent buy-in from IBM means more data is now available in New Zealand and  

We share this news with you today on the same day that Minister Paul Goldsmith’s Office suggested the year-long Open Weather Data review that tax funded agency MBIE carried out may be totally ignored by Minister Goldsmith/Current Government = ie, keeping NIWA and MetService both using tax paid for data to commercially compete against each other while at the same time blocking ANY open access to this tax funded data. Also – no accountability into what they keep getting wrong. It’s a really bad public set up, no other country in the entire WESTERN world operates this way – but after a several year fight with the current Government we feel they are no longer interested or listening to us – and instead have their own agenda. believes weather for the public should be put before profits, as it is in every other western nation … with the exception of New Zealand.

– Image / Next Wednesday night sees another large low potentially affecting New Zealand. More updates this weekend.



Anthony on 27/07/2017 7:29pm

Well, we’ll just have to vote the current government out

Dave on 27/07/2017 6:34am

Hi Phil

I hear you but frankly I believe you better off going alone

The stuff you guys provide is better anyway so I suggest you forget about them they are a waste of space

Cheers Dave

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