Weather in the North Island is expected to remain clear and dry till the end of the month – but be prepared for a muggy summer.
Anticyclones stalling over the North Island are responsible for the early arrival of summer weather, says MetService ambassador Bob McDavitt.
But the anticyclones are about to move to the South Island, taking with them the clear skies and low rainfall the North Island has experienced over the last six weeks.
“They are going down to Otago; we won’t see them again till April,” said Mr McDavitt.
He predicts warm weather will continue, but Auckland and the upper North Island will get rain next month.
“By Christmas the weather will be great for the mosquitoes.”
Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said Auckland and the upper North Island had experienced a dry spell over the past six weeks.
Auckland had only had 16ml of rain in the first nine days of this month – one-fifth of the average rainfall for this time of year.
But a moderate to strong La Nina weather pattern was expected to bring normal or above normal rainfall during the summer months.
The La Nina pattern also increased the risk of tropical cyclones.
“We expect La Nina to wetten up the North Island,” said Ms Griffiths.
Auckland could expect fine weather with cloudy periods and isolated showers over the next week.
– NZHERALD.CO.NZ – By Katherine Irvine
Homepage image / Gloomy Auckland day with drizzle
on 11/11/2010 7:15am
I have to say that this sort of blind prognostication from the MetService really annoys me.
Suddenly there will not be one anticyclone over the top of the North Island until April.
Sorry this is just rubbish and is just sensationist stuff.
on 11/11/2010 10:30am
He is saying the persistent ridging will move off the North Island until about April. This does not exclude anticyclones from crossing the NI, however they are not expected to persist as they are doing at the moment.
I do think it should have been worded better to reflect what was really meant.
on 11/11/2010 3:10am
So does the fact that there is an increased risk of tropical cyclones mean that theres an increased risk of an actual cyclone hitting NZ or an ex-tropical cyclone hitting NZ?
on 11/11/2010 3:50am
Well any ‘cyclone’ that hits us is technically no longer a tropical cyclone – purely due to our location. But semantics aside I’d say we’re more at a risk of sub-tropical storms/lows.
Niwa says that we are actually at increased risks during neutral years. Of course if La Nina fades out in early 2011 then that is a possibility. We’re certainly well overdue to an ex-tropical cyclone down our way. It’s been about 14 years now.
on 11/11/2010 3:04am
This was in the herald with it making reference to the el nino pattern!
on 11/11/2010 3:47am
You’re correct, they had a typo which was fixed in the online version shortly after publication this morning. Not the first time someone has been confused by El Nino / La Nina – including myself, accidentally, in an interview once – very embarrassing!
on 11/11/2010 1:15am
when is the next decent amount of rain going to hit manawatu the water tank is getting rather low
on 11/11/2010 2:33am
Hi – thanks for the update and the question – fingers are crossed for Sunday at this stage – we have 60% confidence of rain coming in from the west. Keep us up to date with conditions in your area!