It’s starting to become clear that summer this year for New Zealand will not go down in history as one of our best, for holidaymakers anyway.

The cold snap over the past 24 hours is even more proof that summer this year has failed to kick start – and WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says don’t expect any dramatic changes anytime soon.

“Our lack of decent holiday weather this summer isn’t due to La Nina – it’s due to the weakness of the highs over New Zealand which have failed to not only deliver lengthy dry spells for most regions but have also failed to remain in one location for more than a few days at a time”.

Image / The rain map for February 5th – all areas of colour indicate rain – and as you can see, there isn’t a lack of it in the south west Pacific.  Click the map to see rain map predictions for the next 14 days.

Mr Duncan says while that is great news for dairy farmers, who have had bumper grass growth across many regions this season, it has meant a wetter, cloudier, windier and cooler summer for many trying to get a decent summer break.

And the forecast for February may not be the silver bullet to the unsettled weather many were hoping for.

February is traditionally a time for hot, dry weather, and while that weather is still expected – it will be more of an “on and off” function.

“We can’t see how February will end, nor can we see what March will shape up like, but we can see that the first half of February sees the mixed bag of weather continuing – with two reliable models showing a return to wetter – but possibly warmer – weather towards the end of the first week” says Mr Duncan.

“For true settled summer weather we need a high to not just past over us, but to drop anchors over us and last a good week or two”.

Bur WeatherWatch.co.nz says no modelling suggest that will happen over the next two or three weeks.

Short term maps show a risk of rain again this Friday, with cooler south west winds spreading back over the country, then quickly easing on Saturday with settled weather returning to most places during Saturday or Sunday.

The next rain risk zone looks likely to be towards the end of the first week of February as sub-tropical rain clouds gather.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz