Weather Forecast for Wellington

Hi Vicky

Aaron here.

Your asking about something that in the weather world is a really long way into the future, I have no doubt the forecast changed as that far out most things become unreliable.

Currently long distance models show some cold air on the 26th and showers, this could lead to a few flurries, but I stress just a few at this stage. It doesn't look like snowmaggedon.

From then onwards temperatures look too warm for snow.

Have a great trip either way! And remember, this is a fair way into the future so things can change! :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi Des, we have a few showers by the looks of it - mainly morning - nothing too serious though and generally mild. ALl the best! (by the way, Thursday and Friday look even better!)

Cheers

WW Team

Hi there

Next Thursday is quite far away, current indications are for an anticyclone to hover over the North Island then bringing mainly settled / sunny weather. Temperatures look to be in the low teens, 13 degrees etc for Auckland. This could change though as once again it's quite far into the future. but there you go.

Cheers
Aaron

There is quite a tight and complex low moving in with a narrow but heavy rain band emedded within it, we have just updated to our latest outlook but there may be further changes to come. This will be a challenge to forecast.

WW

Hi Matt, we don't currently provide marine forecasts but generally speaking a deepening but very small low is moving towards the upper North Island over Monday and Tuesday. It contains a small area of heavy rain and strong winds but mostly isn't a major. Calmer conditions with rain towards the tropics. 
Cheers and all the best
Phil D

Hi there

I'm not sure sorry. Anyone out there see this question who lives in that area can let us know?

Cheers, Aaron

Given enough time, it'll eventually happen again. When exactly? I have no idea, winter sometime within the next 5 years :)

Cheers
Aaron

Not cold enough :)

No, it's not as cold as 2011 or anywhere near as big as that event. If you need more Chch specific info see our Chch forecasts.

- WW

Hi Matt, at this stage June 11th looks a bit rough towards the North Island with that low you mentioned. It will be deepening on the 11th but dropping southwards (also doubling in size as it grows). It's likely to create some heavy rain up towards Raoul Island with strengthening west to north west winds between Auckland/Northland and Raoul. Keep an eye on those maps and track that low, it will chop and change a bit in the days to come as the data is fine tuned.

Cheers and all the best!
- WW

Hi there, please check out our Christchurch forecasts. Just doesn't look cold enough.

Cheers
Aaron

Showers / areas of rain may be heavy at times then easing overnight, that's what we have pegged down for Auckland currently.

Cheers
Aaron

It looks like it may be frosty very early on in the night but then by dawn an approaching front starts to stir the atmosphere up a little and temperatures may start to lift above zero. Still, I would be keeping an eye on the roads and be catious anyway.

WW

Tuesday overnight perhaps and Wednesday yes there may be low level snow (200 to 100m), snow in Christchurch might be pushing it, it's on that fine line where it's probably just not cold enough for sea level snow but if temperatures drop any more then it may be more likely. But the reverse is true also, if temperatures rise by a degree or two then sea level snow in Chch will not be likely. We'll be doing a string of updates tonight for Christchurch on this issue.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, we do actually have this data but so far we aren't showing it because we're still monitoring the accuracy. The biggest problem in NZ is actually fine tuning the forecasts and too many times we see "Heavy rain" or "thunderstorms" only to find nothing happened (or it happened just up the road instead). Yesterday, for example, there was a high (90%+) chance of rain in Auckland yet it was mainly dry but pouring just up in Northland - the forecast wasn't wildly wrong it's just NZ is tricky due to being so skinny, mountainous and surrounded by sea. So we don't want to be forecasting "Heavy rain" only to find you had a bit of drizzle. We hope to be adding details about rain TOTALS and INTENSITY specific to your location in the fairly near future as we continue to fine tune the data as best as we can to reduce false alarms. Our biggest pet peeve is false alarms around heavy rain or thunder and so we're always trying to do better in this area.

Cheers for the feedback!
WW Team

Haha, thanks for the update Dave! Dunedin is a tricky place to forecast for but our rain data is generally pretty good at seeing trends developing. Still work to be done to fine tune it but definitely good to get updates like this to support what we do! Look forward to your next complaint! :) 

Cheers
Phil D

Hi there

Unsettled but not overly stormy.

Check out our Auckland forecasts.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

No idea, based on probabilities probably not but I guess you never know. We deal with the next 5 to 10 days of weather max mostly, anything beyond that becomes guess work apart from the obvious (it's colder in winter than summer etc).

Thanks for writing in!

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

No snow for Chch in the city at the moment.

Eventually it will snow again like it did in 2011, whether it's this winter or sometime in the next 5 years I'm not sure but eventually it will happen again :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there. We don't expect a lot of snow to those levels but certainly the risk of flurries here and there. As for settling at 200M, seems less likely as still a bit too mild, along with soil temps.  Always a very fine line between snow and no snow in set ups like this.

Kind regards
WW

Hi John

Tonight I would expect cool southwesterly winds, cloudy areas and the risk of a shower or two. Hopefully most of the big beefy showers that are moving through today will have cleared by late afternoon / early evening then it boils down to the risk of a shower through the night with many dry spells.

Tomorrow sees morning cloud, still the risk of a shower but showers are more likely to be nearer the coast. Becoming mostly sunny into the afternoon with cool southwesterelies easing. Sunday is dry in the morning with some high cloud then showers develop in the afternoon with a southwest change, likely to be early afternoon. Becoming drier in the evening with showers easing / perhaps clearing away.

An overnight low tonight of 4 degrees, perhaps 3. Highs on Sat and Sun of between 10 to 12 degrees.

Hope that helps, have a great weekend!

Cheers
Aaron

Hi Dave - looks to be a large low forming around then but the models are yet to work out precisely where (ie, Tasman Sea or just north of NZ). Should all start to allign this weekend we'd imagine, or early next week at the latest.

Cheers :)
WW