Weather Forecast for Taupo

Hi Paul

Actually this fog is being generated in exactly the same way! - very high humidity, high dewpoints (basically at the point where clouds form at ground level) and all in the centre of a large low.   In fact we're kicking ourselves for not having fog in the forecast as we were expecting it in Auckland and told one authority yesterday but failed to put it in our forecast yesterday for today - so apologies to our readers for that.  Was an oversight with so much focus on the heavy rain to the east and south of Auckland.

Basically the air is so saturated that we're seeing clouds forming (and rain drops forming) right down at ground level (that's why the rain is so fine/light).  However slightly heavier showers are expected this afternoon.

The fog we're more used to in the upper North Island is usually caused by large highs when the wind is calm.  But these lows over the past month have been huge - the same size as some highs - so the centres are very weak with very little wind.  Exactly what we're seeing today - and may see again next week (although the next big low is predicted to cross the South Island and not the upper North Island).

Cheers

Philip Duncan

Predicting the weather is not an exact science.  If it was a simple as applying the rules of physics, every forecast would be 100% accurate.

But you have to do deal with the factor of time as well.  Where is a particular weather maker going to be at a particular time.  What will that system look like.  Will it have the same amount of moisture to work with when it gets here, will it have the same amount of energy, etc

Every forecaster uses their education and experience when they look at the data to make up a forecast.  And yes, our data does come from different sources.

As far as which one to follow, well that's up to you.  You have to determine which of us is more accurate and more effective in providing the information you want.  It's just like us when we forecast.  We learn over time which model is more accurate and go with that one.

Cheers
Howard

 Yep, agree - we were counting on that wind to pick up a little more but it didnt quite get there, so warmer than last night but not as warm as earlier predicted...half way!

- WW

Hi there, at this stage passing clouds moving in a breezy nor'easter.  Cloudier weather moves in on Saturday so hopefully you'll be ok for Friday evening... 75% chance of clear spells tomorrow night.

Cheers

WW

At this stage we aren't expecting fog tomorrow thanks to an east to north east wind which will be building.  Check our site again this evening for our latest update but at this stage it's not in the forecast.

Kind regards
WW

Actually you'd be surprised how similar each part of Auckland is, unless we have a stuck weather pattern (like a low to the north that brings rain north of the harbour bridge).  When we say showers that can mean sunny spells in some suburbs, showers in others - fine tuning it to north, west, south etc - would make little difference in improving accuracy (we've trialled it a few times internally).   As then it would be showery in some parts of West Auckland but maybe not the suburb - or even street - you live in. 

What we are planning on doing is making a better temperature spread - as certainly West Auckland has more extremes than say the CBD.  We also make specific mention in particular regions (north, south, the bombays, north of whangaparoa etc) when the weather truly is different.   To get the level of detail you want you need to be active in watching the rain radars, the wind maps, the rain maps etc - as that will give you that personalised forecast specific to your place - on top of the forecasts we provide, which are already the most detailed forecasts around that aren't computer generated.

Kind regards

Philip Duncan

...for your kind words.  We appreciate it.

Next weekend is looking a bit unsettled at this point.  Plenty of clouds and some light showers are possible on Saturday.  Then a better chance for showers comes in for Sunday.  Daytime highs should be in the mid teens.

I don't have a whole lot of confidence in this forecast though.  We will have a huge area of high pressure sitting over us for much of the upcoming week.  If it doesn't move off as quick as expected, which highs certainly do sometimes, then next weekend could end up being a lot more settled.

Stay tuned...

HJ

Yep it does look a little empty doesn't it!  We've logged a ticket with Weathermap.co.nz so hopefully will be resolved soon.

Cheers

WW

Hi there - NIWA will be documenting all the lows, so you're best to go to the climate centre at www.niwa.co.nz to get all the info you need.  We dont keep historical data but we do archive our news stories.

Kind regards

Philip Duncan 

We agree - makes for warm nights but miserable days

- PD

Hi, yes i saw it too when i was driving home - completely buzzed me out. I managed to make it home in time for my family to witness it as well.

Nelson aprox 6.15 pm last night 10/07/2012

We saw a huge orange/red fireball plummet from the sky heading south and disapeared behind Mt Arthur, in the west. As it was descending there was a bright red flash across the sea from Ruby Bay to Tahunanui beach... It gave us such a fright that we phoned the police as we were concerned it may have been a plane on fire ! The police came and assured us no planes were missing off the radar ( thankfully!) and thought it was propobaly a meteor. They thanked us for our concern tho and said to always let them know about anything that could be of concern in the future. There had a been a few concerned people phoned them also that had seen the exact same thing. Crazy.

Wow - sounds like a meteor.  No other reports that we've heard of though

- WW

Hi there - at this stage a front wil be crossing the country with fairly breezy westerlies.  No fog in the forecast with that front expected.

Regards

WW

Yeah,

I’m wondering that too? I'm guessing that is for rural Auckland.

Hi there!

It looks like it will be settled during the first half of the day.  Winds will increase and rain will become likely toward sunset.

Keep in mind though, that's a week off.  That's a very preliminary forecast.

Cheers, WW

Hi there - please see comments just below!
Cheers

WW

Could be close but probably not too likely - some sheltered valleys may receive a very light one with lows dropping down to around 3 degrees.

Cheers

WW