Weather Forecast for Rotorua

 Should dry out in Auckland for Fri and Sat... but then more warm rain.  Fingers crossed the westerly change we predicted for the second half of August eventuates.

- WW

somebody if i recall predicted drier weather towards end of August.

G'day

Next weekend at this stage looks like there is another low approaching but this time in the southern Tasman Sea and a building north to northwesterly airflow ahead of it. Should be dry and warm out in eastern areas, cloud in the west with generally speaking damp weather.

Wouldn't want to try and predict things to much this far out but to try and be a bit more accurate, showers on Saturday in the west turning to rain on Sunday, rain on Sunday more so on the South Island's West Coast.

Cheers
Aaron

Out now on the front page :)

Cheers Aaron

Most of the forecasting we do here at WeatherWatch involves the situation at the surface, for planes (i.e. higher up in the atmosphere) you would be recommended to view official aviation forecasts via the metflight service for TAF's and ARFOR's.

In general terms a trough has already passed over early this morning in the area you mention and another weaker one is due around midday.

Showers are likely to affect Northland for much of today clearing in the evening. 20 knot westerlies early this morning tending southwesterly 20 knots by midday easing to 10 to 15 knot winds this evening, mind you that's at the surface so add another 5 to 10 knots to that where I would imagine you would be flying and your gusting speeds will be 5 to 10 knots above that yet again.

I don't know the abilities of your aircraft and what you can handle in terms of the weather but more then likely I would say it's not the best day to be flying light aircraft up there. Friday morning would be a better bet.

Cheers
Aaron - WW

Hi there, our forecasts are updated constantly throughout the day.  For example we don't like having a forecast saying "Rain clearing tonight" when the rain has already cleared.  Or "Frosty and sunny" in a 'today forecast' at 11am.

For "Today's" weather we update most hours across the 24 hour day - sometimes a few times an hour if we're tracking a particular shower/band of rain (we might mention it's in Henderson, then the next update 20 mins later may say it's over Albany etc).  We are the only forecaster who does this type of micro-forecasting in our public forecasts.

We update Day 2 a few times a day and Days 3+ are updated around twice a day (as new international data only comes in a couple times a day).

We're trying to keep our site as simplistic as possible so have no plans to add timestamps for forecasts but as you can see the current forecast is being continuously monitored and updated.

Cheers
Phil

That's the trucky question.  We know the low will be there and we know a band of rain will come down later on Saturday - but as for when the showers will start and when the rain will start, that's much harder to pinpoint.  At this stage it's showing showers turning to rain in the afternoon.  Will have a better idea in another 24 to 36 hours.

Cheers
PD

Hi there

It would seem very unlikely that it was ash from Tongariro as the wind direction couldn't support ash going up that way. Thanks for your query! :)

Cheers Aaron WW

Hi there  -yes potential for heavy falls this afternoon, but may not be widespread.  Keep an eye on our updates late this morning for the very latest once the rain gets closer.

Cheers

WW

Im sure it wont be raining to much here in auckland we have being having lots of sunshine up here in auckland but we being having few spots of showers and rain but other wise its beiing mostly clear and sunny

Watching the rain radar all weekend Auckland was very close to having a wet past few days - we can thank the ranges to our north and east for stopping most of the rain!

- WW

today was pretty darned nice! :)

We have another low coming in this week (leave the car outside in the rain!) then possibly another behind it.  We're hoping that drier weather will move in towards week 3 of August - but only early days at this stage!

- WW

HI there - a bit too early to know for sure, so feel free to ask again in a few days time.  In the meantime, click on the Maps link at the top of the page to see what the current models are predicting rainwise for you.

Cheers

WW

All indicators are pointing towards El Nino - which tends to bring windier, drier, weather to Auckland - coupled with spring that further increases the chances of westerlies and less of these nor'easters.  We don't really have a lot of faith in forecasts beyond a month unless we have a strong weather pattern, which we dont at the moment, so for now we're predicting an increase in westerlies for the second half of August,

Cheers

WW

What a great way of describing it!  That's certainly what it felt like...a few showers which then spread and turned to rain.  Very odd weather pattern with these constant bands of showers and rain (and some of those showers, like last night, can catch up with each other and turn to rain) moving in from the north.  Id imagine that it will decrease on Friday but high risk again on Saturday for more rain, and 60% risk for Sunday.  Hard to know if it will be as intense...certainly has the potential but will come down to the luck of the draw on the day as to where the rain clouds organise themselves.  For example last nights heavy rain formed over northern Auckland then shifted south... a little further north it was mostly dry.

- Cheers

Phil

That seems weird as TVNZ and the Herald both use MetService data - so either MetService has different feeds for them or they update at different times.  All the mainstream media in NZ use MetService at this stage for their daily forecasts (although more and more are trusting us, which is evident through our Herald videos and quotes in news stories).  No other western nation in the world has a weather monopoly like NZ does with MetService, which is why we're working with the authorities and the Commerce Commission to right this wrong.

We have 9 as the low tonight.  It's been a funny week because if we have a prolonged clear spell in between the rain clouds the temperature could drop to 6...but if the winds and clouds/rain remain, it may hover around 12.  Quite a big difference and 100% dependent on the timing of those clouds/showers and clear spells.

Cheers
Philip Duncan

Yeah isn't it odd this is one train that always runs on time!?  There is some light at the end of the tunnel - but possibly not for another week I'm afraid

Phil

Haha, that can sometimes be the problem with a typo that's spelt correctly - it doesnt get caught up in the spell check.

The "train" should be arriving this afternoon at Platform Auckland.

:)

PD

At this stage a 60% chance of rain or showers.  This low is with us for another 8 days!

- PD

Hi there - no the weather shouldn't have any significant impact on international flights tomorrow.  It will be cloudy with showers and rain developing, brisk to gusty winds.  Nothing that should cause any flight problems for international jets.

Cheers

Philip Duncan