Weather Forecast for Napier

Hi there, that's an easy one - no it will not :)

Cheers

WW

Hi there, looks like rain in the morning then improving into the afternoon and becoming mainly dry. Yes there is some chance Sunday's rain might come early (or Saturday's rain might run a little later before clearing) but for now it looks like Saturday afternoon and evening may be mainly dry. Keep an eye on the % of rain in the hourly forecasts we have for Apiti, it's the best guide: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Apiti

Have a good time :)
Cheers

WW

Hi there, we expect Saturday to be mostly dry but Sunday looks wet and windy.

Have a great time :)
Cheers

WW

Hi there, at this stage Kaikoura itself should be dry on Friday. Rain develops on Saturday PM and may become a little heavy for a time. Sunday sees some rain but latest thinking is that the heaviest falls will be in the eastern North Island, but if the low shifts a little further south that heavy rain may come down further. Hard to be too precise with such a big complex/developing low, but keep an eye on the % of rain in our local Kaikoura forecasts for more details. Below is the total rainfall accumulation map between now and Sunday night, showing up to 80mm possible - other modelling suggests half that amount due to thinking that rain may fall further up the country. Sorry we can't be more specific but it's a very large low that hasn't even formed yet - so a little hard to be too precise about where the fine line of heavy rain will be. All the best and thanks for your hard work with the rebuild - we've heard good things about how it's all coming along.

Cheers
Phil D

TOTAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE between Thursday PM and dawn Monday:

We've been in regular talks with them this week. A few showers on Friday and Saturday, but Sunday looks wet and windy. Not the best forecast but hopefully the first two days are ok. All the best and hope it's not cancelled.

Kind regards
WW

Hi there. It's looking quite wet unfortunately. With that set up I suspect this isnt looking all that likely to change.

Cheers, Aaron

Hi there, your option 2 is a possibility. We have seen some 5 day rainfall maps which show some very patchy set ups. There is definitely a possibility the high to our west may grow or push in faster, making that rain move faster away from NZ in the east (or pushing that northern rain further north off land). That's why we are still reserving our thoughts on rainfall totals this week, probably make some decision tomorrow on it. Certainly a complex set up with a number of moving parts!

Cheers

Phil D

Hi there, yes there is the potential for another tropical cyclone north of NZ at the start of March but high pressure in the New Zealand area looks very strong and should keep any tropical weather well away from us. Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on, but nothing major on the horizon at this stage in March.

Cheers
WW

Hi there, it's too far out to lock in at this stage but the general theme we see in early March is more big high pressure crossing NZ from the Tasman Sea. We don't expect it to be significantly cooler at this stage in Gisborne.

Cheers
WW

You are preaching to the converted here. Personally in this modern day and age the system set up last century no longer applies, instead it causes confusion. In our part of the world the categories are reached much easier - maybe because homes aren't built as well. Either way, we believe there now should be one international standard - but it's all political so who knows if the UN/WMO/MetService would ever support a common sense one high level international standard.

Here are all the different categories in each part of the world:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

Cheers
Phil D

Hi there, yes we are seeing GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS G (Australia) and UK Met Office all somewhat aligning. We're likely to make our first detailed call tomorrow on what we think will happen. It's likely Cyclone Oma will entirely miss NZ but it's looking likely it will help fuel a new larger low in the New Zealand area. The modelling was always confident of a new low forming, but GFS in particular was lagging and showing Oma still directly coming in. A lot of moving parts and if we do end up with a very large system it can sometimes create large areas of calm and dry too... so still a lot to fine tune in the days ahead.

Cheers

WW

Hi there, due to the complexity of the low this weekend (we don't think a direct hit from Oma is likely, but a new large low will form instead) we can't really answer with certainty. Your best best is to pay close attention to the 10 day forecasts we have for Paekakariki and in particular the HOURLY forecasts which will show you the % of rain, wind speed, temperature etc. There may be some large areas of dry Friday and weekend, so keep checking back with the forecasts - the later you can leave your decision the more likely the forecasts will be locked in.

Cheers
WW

Hi there Bill,  Waikehe Island does have a different climate to Auckland, it tends to be drier in summer and often misses all the showers in winter that Auckland can get. Quite a few people believe the micro-climate there is quite different to Auckland. The island can be vulnerable to thunderstorms that form in the Harbour and Gulf, but often the city may be cloudy/overcast while Waikehe is sunny. NE winds would be cooler and a little cloudier, SW winds (predominant) are probably what give Waiheke it's drier/sunnier micro-climate as SWers in the city can be cool, cloudy and showery even in Summer sometimes.
Cheers

Philip D

Hi Rob, Cruises and Flights operate in similar ways. On the day of travel (or the night before) the pilot/captain and airline/cruise company will make the decision on whether to travel or not. At this stage it's hard to know what the shipping routes will be like, large ships are usually pretty good at tracking around the worse stuff. We don't know their thresholds for delays though. Hopefully you'll still set off on time, they will likely be trying to fine tune the forecast like we are trying to do right now too.

All the best!
Cheers
Phil D

Hi there

Might be a little changeable that far out, specifics may need to be tweaked but overall Chch and Darfield are both looking dry on Saturday. Darfield a tad warmer then Chch near the coast. Looks fairly cloudy going by the latest information, some sun possible later in the afternoon or evening. Winds from the northeast becoming a little blustery by evening.

Hope that helps!

Cheers
Aaron

Especially at the moment, then again too much could be no good. Will see what the coming weekend brings.

Aaron

Hi there, that is the name the owner of the station has given it we believe. This is the location it is showing as:

Hi there, please see our latest news story about Cyclone Oma and how it is making for changeable forecasts this weekend. We can't yet firmly answer your question sorry. Keep an eye on our forecasts written by WW for Auckland, also the hourly forecasts by TWC are updated hourly and cover % of rain and wind speeds. 

Latest news here: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/cyclone-omas-future-track-remains-uncertain-5050-chance-nz-has-severe-weather-19-maps

Cheers
WW

Hi there, we receive them from a combination of public and private stations all over the country. You can see the full network here: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/observations

If you have a reading that is wildly incorrect please give us the full Station ID and we can remove it.

Kind regards
WW Team

Hi there, you'll need to contact NIWA sorry, as we they don't allow us to freely share the tax funded data in an easy way, so you'll need to directly contact them with the request. Sorry we can't be of more help, the Government recently rejected opening this data up to be freely shared due to their own commercial priorities.
Kind regards

WW

Hi there, you'll need to keep up to date with this likely changeable forecast - it's changeable due to Cyclone Oma which will be to our north west then and while still a distance from NZ it may trigger a local area of low pressure. WeatherWatch uses the power of IBM (the most powerful super computer for weather in NZ), MetService has no super computer so we are unsure about their long range data sorry - we currently do not even monitor it. We should know by Monday next week a lot more about Feb 23. At this stage dry is winning more than rain most days, but check in again with us very early next week.

Cheers

WW

Good Morning Henry. We currently have more weather stations than any of the forecasters we must tax fund but some of this data has been switched off due to a couple of reasons. 1) Being delayed before being made public (ie, NIWA even though we all fund them, they delay sharing public weather obs by 24 hours and MetService up to 3 hours) so some have been removed from the Government side. 2) As for the private side, because we have so many stations to choose from not always the most local one is the most accurate one. We're working on a better observations lay out this year, one that will put the power in your hands to choose another local station should the one we automatically pick not be the one you want. Watch this space.

Kind regards

Phil D 

Hi there

Thankyou!

Perhaps early next week, but not all that cool, highs will still likely be in the early to mid twenties. Otherwise the warm weather continues :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, just looked into this and it certainly seems strange. We may do some further digging but first glance is this detailed local forecast may actually be picking a location on the mountain (it shows a 70% chance of an afternoon heat downpour there, even though it's not happening the risk is there). Could you use Tihoi or Bennydale? Both of those nearby locations are much more inline with your weather with dry skies and highs close to 30 :)

Cheers WW

Hi there

Phil wrote a very detailed reply just below to a question similar to yours, atleast it has the answers you need. Here it is! :)

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