Weather Forecast for Kaitaia

It's fun to be relaxed with the forecasts when the weather is so awesome :)

- WW

Hi JS

Thanks very much for your kind feedback, we all really appreciate it. We are looking at making some big changes this year to improve our services even further. Appreciate your support, it really does go a long way.

Cheers!
- WW Team

Tomorrow appears to be just a few clearing showers. Beyond then it's quite dry looking, there may be a shower or two, perhaps a spot of rain etc as a front or two passes over during the next three weeks but nothing substantial on the way unfortunately.

Aaron

First decent southerly system in a while, that's why I would say. Improvement is coming this coming week, check out our Auckland forecasts which have very recently been updated.

Hope that helps! :)

Cheers
Aaron

We'll still get warm days for sure, especially into March but naturally as time moves along you can't stop the seasons from happening. Fairly simple really. Perhaps we have had our hottest weather for this summer though you may be right.

Cheers
Aaron

Showers, see our forecasts and News feed for maps and details.
- WW

Hi Dave, good question and we are working to improve the difference. The chance for rain increases in the evening, but our day time forecast is generally for 5am to 5pm where we think it will be mainly dry. Chance of rain increases into the evening. Other forecasters are much more general and just put a rain cloud up - we try to give daytime and night time two distinct sections and ensure the % of rain and icon are as accurate as possible. We don't always nail it perfectly but it's the goal to be better than just slapping a rain icon up each time there is just a general risk of some wet weather at some point in that 24 hour period. So the WW forecast is the main guide, the hourly forecasts help you fine tune it to make it as accurate as possible. This is unique to WW.

Hope that makes sense - happy to follow up if still not making sense, because as we say we want to make improvements in the very near future (next 2 months) so any tips to make this easier to understand will be very welcome by you and any others reading our reply here :) 

Cheers

Phil D

Hi there, that's an easy one - no it will not :)

Cheers

WW

Hi there, looks like rain in the morning then improving into the afternoon and becoming mainly dry. Yes there is some chance Sunday's rain might come early (or Saturday's rain might run a little later before clearing) but for now it looks like Saturday afternoon and evening may be mainly dry. Keep an eye on the % of rain in the hourly forecasts we have for Apiti, it's the best guide: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Apiti

Have a good time :)
Cheers

WW

Hi there, we expect Saturday to be mostly dry but Sunday looks wet and windy.

Have a great time :)
Cheers

WW

Hi there, at this stage Kaikoura itself should be dry on Friday. Rain develops on Saturday PM and may become a little heavy for a time. Sunday sees some rain but latest thinking is that the heaviest falls will be in the eastern North Island, but if the low shifts a little further south that heavy rain may come down further. Hard to be too precise with such a big complex/developing low, but keep an eye on the % of rain in our local Kaikoura forecasts for more details. Below is the total rainfall accumulation map between now and Sunday night, showing up to 80mm possible - other modelling suggests half that amount due to thinking that rain may fall further up the country. Sorry we can't be more specific but it's a very large low that hasn't even formed yet - so a little hard to be too precise about where the fine line of heavy rain will be. All the best and thanks for your hard work with the rebuild - we've heard good things about how it's all coming along.

Cheers
Phil D

TOTAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE between Thursday PM and dawn Monday:

We've been in regular talks with them this week. A few showers on Friday and Saturday, but Sunday looks wet and windy. Not the best forecast but hopefully the first two days are ok. All the best and hope it's not cancelled.

Kind regards
WW

Hi there. It's looking quite wet unfortunately. With that set up I suspect this isnt looking all that likely to change.

Cheers, Aaron

Hi there, your option 2 is a possibility. We have seen some 5 day rainfall maps which show some very patchy set ups. There is definitely a possibility the high to our west may grow or push in faster, making that rain move faster away from NZ in the east (or pushing that northern rain further north off land). That's why we are still reserving our thoughts on rainfall totals this week, probably make some decision tomorrow on it. Certainly a complex set up with a number of moving parts!

Cheers

Phil D

Hi there, yes there is the potential for another tropical cyclone north of NZ at the start of March but high pressure in the New Zealand area looks very strong and should keep any tropical weather well away from us. Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on, but nothing major on the horizon at this stage in March.

Cheers
WW

Hi there, it's too far out to lock in at this stage but the general theme we see in early March is more big high pressure crossing NZ from the Tasman Sea. We don't expect it to be significantly cooler at this stage in Gisborne.

Cheers
WW

You are preaching to the converted here. Personally in this modern day and age the system set up last century no longer applies, instead it causes confusion. In our part of the world the categories are reached much easier - maybe because homes aren't built as well. Either way, we believe there now should be one international standard - but it's all political so who knows if the UN/WMO/MetService would ever support a common sense one high level international standard.

Here are all the different categories in each part of the world:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

Cheers
Phil D

Hi there, yes we are seeing GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS G (Australia) and UK Met Office all somewhat aligning. We're likely to make our first detailed call tomorrow on what we think will happen. It's likely Cyclone Oma will entirely miss NZ but it's looking likely it will help fuel a new larger low in the New Zealand area. The modelling was always confident of a new low forming, but GFS in particular was lagging and showing Oma still directly coming in. A lot of moving parts and if we do end up with a very large system it can sometimes create large areas of calm and dry too... so still a lot to fine tune in the days ahead.

Cheers

WW

Hi there, due to the complexity of the low this weekend (we don't think a direct hit from Oma is likely, but a new large low will form instead) we can't really answer with certainty. Your best best is to pay close attention to the 10 day forecasts we have for Paekakariki and in particular the HOURLY forecasts which will show you the % of rain, wind speed, temperature etc. There may be some large areas of dry Friday and weekend, so keep checking back with the forecasts - the later you can leave your decision the more likely the forecasts will be locked in.

Cheers
WW

Hi there Bill,  Waikehe Island does have a different climate to Auckland, it tends to be drier in summer and often misses all the showers in winter that Auckland can get. Quite a few people believe the micro-climate there is quite different to Auckland. The island can be vulnerable to thunderstorms that form in the Harbour and Gulf, but often the city may be cloudy/overcast while Waikehe is sunny. NE winds would be cooler and a little cloudier, SW winds (predominant) are probably what give Waiheke it's drier/sunnier micro-climate as SWers in the city can be cool, cloudy and showery even in Summer sometimes.
Cheers

Philip D

Hi Rob, Cruises and Flights operate in similar ways. On the day of travel (or the night before) the pilot/captain and airline/cruise company will make the decision on whether to travel or not. At this stage it's hard to know what the shipping routes will be like, large ships are usually pretty good at tracking around the worse stuff. We don't know their thresholds for delays though. Hopefully you'll still set off on time, they will likely be trying to fine tune the forecast like we are trying to do right now too.

All the best!
Cheers
Phil D