Weather Forecast for Kaitaia


Kaitaia Summary

Rain.

Forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Now

16°c

Observed at 1:17am from:
Coopers Beach W (IFARNORT5)

Rain (today)6.86mm
WindW 11km/h
Humidex (Beta)20°c
Humidity98%
Pressure1021.67hPa

Current conditions by The Weather Company

Today

19°c
Rain.
Rain (chance)80%
WindWNW 16km/h
UV Index3 (Moderate)
Sunrise6:55am
Sunset5:55pm

Computer generated forecast by The Weather Company

Tonight

12°c
Generally clear.
Rain (chance)20%
WindW 8km/h
Moonrise8:04pm
Moonset9:24am
Moon PhaseWaning Gibbous

Computer generated forecast by The Weather Company

Next 24 Hours

2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
8%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
39%
chance
of rain
61%
chance
of rain
70%
chance
of rain
75%
chance
of rain
76%
chance
of rain
79%
chance
of rain
77%
chance
of rain
73%
chance
of rain
72%
chance
of rain
65%
chance
of rain
56%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
22%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
NW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NNW
9km/hr
NW
7km/hr
NW
8km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NW
10km/hr
NW
12km/hr
WNW
13km/hr
WNW
15km/hr
WNW
16km/hr
WNW
15km/hr
WNW
15km/hr
W
13km/hr
W
13km/hr
W
12km/hr
W
10km/hr
WNW
9km/hr
W
8km/hr
WNW
8km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
7km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Next 9 Days

Tue 23 Apr
20°c
13°c
Generally clear.
SW
22km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
13%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
30%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
W
7km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
8km/hr
W
8km/hr
W
7km/hr
WSW
7km/hr
WSW
7km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
7km/hr
WSW
10km/hr
SW
14km/hr
SW
17km/hr
SW
19km/hr
SW
22km/hr
SW
22km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
19km/hr
SW
16km/hr
SSW
14km/hr
SSW
12km/hr
SSW
11km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Wed 24 Apr
21°c
14°c
Partly cloudy.
SSW
25km/hr
10%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
SSW
8km/hr
SSW
8km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
10km/hr
SSW
11km/hr
SSW
12km/hr
SSW
13km/hr
SSW
15km/hr
SSW
17km/hr
SSW
20km/hr
SSW
23km/hr
SSW
24km/hr
SSW
25km/hr
SSW
25km/hr
SSW
24km/hr
SSW
23km/hr
SSW
20km/hr
SSW
18km/hr
SSW
16km/hr
SSW
15km/hr
SSW
13km/hr
SSW
12km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Thu 25 Apr
21°c
14°c
Partly cloudy.
SSW
20km/hr
10%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
SSW
11km/hr
SSW
11km/hr
SSW
10km/hr
SSW
10km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
11km/hr
SSW
12km/hr
SSW
14km/hr
SSW
15km/hr
SSW
18km/hr
SSW
19km/hr
SSW
20km/hr
SSW
19km/hr
SSW
19km/hr
SW
18km/hr
SW
16km/hr
SW
13km/hr
SW
11km/hr
SW
10km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
7km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Fri 26 Apr
22°c
13°c
Partly cloudy.
SW
14km/hr
10%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
SW
6km/hr
SW
7km/hr
SW
7km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
7km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
5km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
10km/hr
SW
12km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
15km/hr
SW
14km/hr
SW
13km/hr
SW
12km/hr
SW
9km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
5km/hr
WSW
3km/hr
W
2km/hr
W
1km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Sat 27 Apr
21°c
15°c
Partly cloudy.
NNW
15km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
21%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
WNW
0km/hr
NW
1km/hr
NW
1km/hr
NNW
1km/hr
NNW
1km/hr
NNW
2km/hr
NNW
2km/hr
NNW
3km/hr
NNW
3km/hr
NNW
5km/hr
NNW
7km/hr
NNW
10km/hr
NW
14km/hr
NW
15km/hr
NW
16km/hr
NW
15km/hr
NW
15km/hr
NW
15km/hr
NW
13km/hr
NW
11km/hr
NW
10km/hr
NNW
9km/hr
NNW
9km/hr
NNW
10km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Sun 28 Apr
20°c
14°c
Morning showers.
W
19km/hr
40%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
43%
chance
of rain
44%
chance
of rain
44%
chance
of rain
46%
chance
of rain
46%
chance
of rain
45%
chance
of rain
43%
chance
of rain
42%
chance
of rain
39%
chance
of rain
37%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
30%
chance
of rain
23%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
NNW
9km/hr
NW
10km/hr
NW
10km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
WNW
9km/hr
WNW
10km/hr
WNW
12km/hr
WNW
14km/hr
WNW
15km/hr
W
18km/hr
W
19km/hr
W
20km/hr
W
19km/hr
W
20km/hr
W
20km/hr
W
18km/hr
W
15km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
W
12km/hr
W
12km/hr
W
12km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Mon 29 Apr
20°c
14°c
Generally clear.
WSW
22km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
23%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
W
12km/hr
W
12km/hr
WSW
11km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
11km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
15km/hr
WSW
16km/hr
WSW
17km/hr
WSW
18km/hr
SW
19km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
22km/hr
WSW
23km/hr
WSW
22km/hr
WSW
22km/hr
WSW
21km/hr
WSW
19km/hr
WSW
18km/hr
WSW
16km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Tue 30 Apr
19°c
14°c
Morning showers.
WSW
21km/hr
60%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
12%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
52%
chance
of rain
52%
chance
of rain
51%
chance
of rain
48%
chance
of rain
48%
chance
of rain
48%
chance
of rain
32%
chance
of rain
32%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
30%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
WSW
13km/hr
WSW
13km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
15km/hr
WSW
17km/hr
WSW
18km/hr
WSW
19km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
22km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
21km/hr
SW
20km/hr
SW
18km/hr
WSW
16km/hr
SW
14km/hr
WSW
13km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
12km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Wed 1 May
19°c
14°c
Partly cloudy.
WSW
21km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
4%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
30%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
WSW
11km/hr
WSW
11km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
12km/hr
WSW
13km/hr
WSW
13km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
WSW
15km/hr
WSW
17km/hr
WSW
18km/hr
WSW
20km/hr
WSW
19km/hr
WSW
21km/hr
WSW
21km/hr
WSW
21km/hr
WSW
21km/hr
WSW
20km/hr
WSW
18km/hr
WSW
16km/hr
WSW
15km/hr
WSW
14km/hr
W
14km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company


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Comments

Cool - I will message again

Cool - I will message again in about a week to see if you have an update :) Thanks heaps for responding. Appreciate it.

Haha

“Sweet as bruh”...Indeed

It's fun to be relaxed with

It's fun to be relaxed with the forecasts when the weather is so awesome :)

- WW

Weather Reports

Hi there, Weatherwatch is my preferred weather site. You people are so accurate with your reporting, you don't scaremonger the public and are pretty much spot on should there be any drastic changes in the weather systems. Love watching Philip Duncan's video's, he explains the different weather patterns so well. In my opinion I think the Government is funding the wrong weather news authority! Keep up the great work Weatherwatch :) cheers JS

Hi JS Thanks very much for

Hi JS

Thanks very much for your kind feedback, we all really appreciate it. We are looking at making some big changes this year to improve our services even further. Appreciate your support, it really does go a long way.

Cheers!
- WW Team

Molesworth Station, Marlborough

Hi, what chances of Molesworth getting decent rain over 1/ next couple of days and 2/ next free weeks?

Tomorrow appears to be just a

Tomorrow appears to be just a few clearing showers. Beyond then it's quite dry looking, there may be a shower or two, perhaps a spot of rain etc as a front or two passes over during the next three weeks but nothing substantial on the way unfortunately.

Aaron

Auckland weather

Why is it so cold in Auckland right now and can we expect any improvement. It felt like the summer has been complete rubbish this year.

We had 26+ days of no rain

We had 26+ days of no rain and high temps in Auckland until last weekend and you think summer has been complete rubbish? You're hard to please...

First decent southerly system

First decent southerly system in a while, that's why I would say. Improvement is coming this coming week, check out our Auckland forecasts which have very recently been updated.

Hope that helps! :)

Cheers
Aaron

El Nino

Are we in an El Nino period? If not, when is the next one expected? Thanks

temperature

has summer ended? the temps feel cooler. i know that heatwave is gone now

We'll still get warm days for

We'll still get warm days for sure, especially into March but naturally as time moves along you can't stop the seasons from happening. Fairly simple really. Perhaps we have had our hottest weather for this summer though you may be right.

Cheers
Aaron

rain

will there be some rain for aucklanx tommorow

Showers, see our forecasts

Showers, see our forecasts and News feed for maps and details.
- WW

thanks

thanks

Chance of rain

Hi guys. I'm trying to understand how your chance of rain forecasts are calculated. Dunedin's Saturday forecast has no mention of rain in the text description, however there's a 25% chance next to this, and then a 59% chance at 5pm in the hourly forecasts. Can you provide some insight? Thanks, Dave.

Hi Dave, good question and we

Hi Dave, good question and we are working to improve the difference. The chance for rain increases in the evening, but our day time forecast is generally for 5am to 5pm where we think it will be mainly dry. Chance of rain increases into the evening. Other forecasters are much more general and just put a rain cloud up - we try to give daytime and night time two distinct sections and ensure the % of rain and icon are as accurate as possible. We don't always nail it perfectly but it's the goal to be better than just slapping a rain icon up each time there is just a general risk of some wet weather at some point in that 24 hour period. So the WW forecast is the main guide, the hourly forecasts help you fine tune it to make it as accurate as possible. This is unique to WW.

Hope that makes sense - happy to follow up if still not making sense, because as we say we want to make improvements in the very near future (next 2 months) so any tips to make this easier to understand will be very welcome by you and any others reading our reply here :) 

Cheers

Phil D

Thanks

Thanks for your answer Phil. I agree that giving the percentage chance of rain is much better than just saying wet or dry. I'm guessing the hourly predictions are all from computer models and the daily forecasts have human input? My only other suggestion would be that perhaps some of the granularity (i.e. hourly forecasts) could be removed for the 6-10 day forecasts as I imagine it's very hard to get these right! Keep up the good work. Dave.

NZ Herald off the deep end

NZ Herald off the deep end again with a hyped up headline. According to them, "MetService is predicting Cyclone Oma will slide past the country". I thought it was coming nowhere near us and staying off the Queensland coast for a few days. Hardly "sliding past". Thankfully you offer us a voice of reason.

Cyclone

Will Cambridge get the cyclone

Hi there, that's an easy one

Hi there, that's an easy one - no it will not :)

Cheers

WW

Feilding

We have a wedding in Apiti Saturday 4pm, what's the weather looking like? Any chance the rain forecast for Sunday comes early?

Hi there, looks like rain in

Hi there, looks like rain in the morning then improving into the afternoon and becoming mainly dry. Yes there is some chance Sunday's rain might come early (or Saturday's rain might run a little later before clearing) but for now it looks like Saturday afternoon and evening may be mainly dry. Keep an eye on the % of rain in the hourly forecasts we have for Apiti, it's the best guide: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Apiti

Have a good time :)
Cheers

WW

Weekend

Hi, How much rain can we expect this weekend at splore festival at tapapakanga national park?

Hi there, we expect Saturday

Hi there, we expect Saturday to be mostly dry but Sunday looks wet and windy.

Have a great time :)
Cheers

WW

Kaikoura Sunday Rainfall

Hi there working on the road rebuilds in Kaikoura,we usually use your site for our weather.Working in a high rockfall area and are just wondering if we should move all our heavy machinery on Friday if the rain is going to be torrential as we can't seem to get an answer from our higher ups.Being a sub contractor we can't afford to lose gear.Any guess on rainfall amounts.

Hi there, at this stage

Hi there, at this stage Kaikoura itself should be dry on Friday. Rain develops on Saturday PM and may become a little heavy for a time. Sunday sees some rain but latest thinking is that the heaviest falls will be in the eastern North Island, but if the low shifts a little further south that heavy rain may come down further. Hard to be too precise with such a big complex/developing low, but keep an eye on the % of rain in our local Kaikoura forecasts for more details. Below is the total rainfall accumulation map between now and Sunday night, showing up to 80mm possible - other modelling suggests half that amount due to thinking that rain may fall further up the country. Sorry we can't be more specific but it's a very large low that hasn't even formed yet - so a little hard to be too precise about where the fine line of heavy rain will be. All the best and thanks for your hard work with the rebuild - we've heard good things about how it's all coming along.

Cheers
Phil D

TOTAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE between Thursday PM and dawn Monday:

 

WAIRARAPA AIR SHOW 22.23.24TH FEB

AS I Live North of Auckland And will be towing a Caravan to the Air show ( Nine hours drive), what are the percentage chances of rain in the Wairarapa or, low cloud ceiling enough to cancel air show? Long way to go if the show is cancelled.

We've been in regular talks

We've been in regular talks with them this week. A few showers on Friday and Saturday, but Sunday looks wet and windy. Not the best forecast but hopefully the first two days are ok. All the best and hope it's not cancelled.

Kind regards
WW

Te Horo - Wellington

Hi there, Are you able to kindly provide an insight into the likely weather on Friday around 3pm at Te Horo Wellington please together with any possibility of this changing? Thank you.

Hi there. It's looking quite

Hi there. It's looking quite wet unfortunately. With that set up I suspect this isnt looking all that likely to change.

Cheers, Aaron

From Doom and Gloom to Warmth and Sunshine?

What are the chances that the high to the East of NZ pushes back on the low / stormy weather front giving us a dry weekend? Or option 2 the High coming across from Australia pushes through any scattered rain faster than expected until midnight Friday, an then sitting over NZ for the weekend.

Hi there, your option 2 is a

Hi there, your option 2 is a possibility. We have seen some 5 day rainfall maps which show some very patchy set ups. There is definitely a possibility the high to our west may grow or push in faster, making that rain move faster away from NZ in the east (or pushing that northern rain further north off land). That's why we are still reserving our thoughts on rainfall totals this week, probably make some decision tomorrow on it. Certainly a complex set up with a number of moving parts!

Cheers

Phil D

Are there any

Are there any more tropical storms that would affect New Zealand over the month of march

Hi there, yes there is the

Hi there, yes there is the potential for another tropical cyclone north of NZ at the start of March but high pressure in the New Zealand area looks very strong and should keep any tropical weather well away from us. Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on, but nothing major on the horizon at this stage in March.

Cheers
WW

Gisborne in march

Hi there, Can you predict anything fo Gisborne between 7th-25th march? Is it mainly rain, cloud or sun and quite a bit cooler?? Thanks

Hi there, it's too far out to

Hi there, it's too far out to lock in at this stage but the general theme we see in early March is more big high pressure crossing NZ from the Tasman Sea. We don't expect it to be significantly cooler at this stage in Gisborne.

Cheers
WW

Pacific Vs Atlantic cyclone categories

Hi there, just wondering why the Pacific and Atlantic cyclone categories are different? Was quite impressed to hear that Oma was a cat 3 then found out that's cat 1 equivalent in the Atlantic. (Just moved from the Caribbean where a Cat 3 would seem not to exist in the Pacific?)

You are preaching to the

You are preaching to the converted here. Personally in this modern day and age the system set up last century no longer applies, instead it causes confusion. In our part of the world the categories are reached much easier - maybe because homes aren't built as well. Either way, we believe there now should be one international standard - but it's all political so who knows if the UN/WMO/MetService would ever support a common sense one high level international standard.

Here are all the different categories in each part of the world:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

Cheers
Phil D

Nelson Tasman

Hard to wait it's so dry water being turned off to businesses in less than 2 weeks around some parts of Tasman area the impact of this will be huge for people. Can you send some rain this way please : )

The latest GFS model looks to

The latest GFS model looks to have aligned with the ECMWF model. Your thoughts?

Hi there, yes we are seeing

Hi there, yes we are seeing GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS G (Australia) and UK Met Office all somewhat aligning. We're likely to make our first detailed call tomorrow on what we think will happen. It's likely Cyclone Oma will entirely miss NZ but it's looking likely it will help fuel a new larger low in the New Zealand area. The modelling was always confident of a new low forming, but GFS in particular was lagging and showing Oma still directly coming in. A lot of moving parts and if we do end up with a very large system it can sometimes create large areas of calm and dry too... so still a lot to fine tune in the days ahead.

Cheers

WW

Weather on Sunday 24/2/2019

Hi there We have a community picnic scheduled for Sunday 24/2/2019 out at Queen Elizabeth Park in Paekakariki. Do you think cyclone oma will impact on this ? At this stage we are looking to call a postponement on Friday if necessary . Your thoughts ?

Hi there, due to the

Hi there, due to the complexity of the low this weekend (we don't think a direct hit from Oma is likely, but a new large low will form instead) we can't really answer with certainty. Your best best is to pay close attention to the 10 day forecasts we have for Paekakariki and in particular the HOURLY forecasts which will show you the % of rain, wind speed, temperature etc. There may be some large areas of dry Friday and weekend, so keep checking back with the forecasts - the later you can leave your decision the more likely the forecasts will be locked in.

Cheers
WW

Waiheke Island

Thanks for all your services and comments, your data and forecasts are much appreciated. My question: there are many conventional wisdoms about weather on Waiheke Island and how different it is from Auckland city or West Coast Auckland. Do you have any general feel for what these differences might be in general terms? Slightly dryer and slightly warmer is the received wisdom, but I'm not so sure--it seems to depend on whether we are getting SW or NE predominant winds. Any thoughts appreciated. Bill

Hi there Bill,  Waikehe

Hi there Bill,  Waikehe Island does have a different climate to Auckland, it tends to be drier in summer and often misses all the showers in winter that Auckland can get. Quite a few people believe the micro-climate there is quite different to Auckland. The island can be vulnerable to thunderstorms that form in the Harbour and Gulf, but often the city may be cloudy/overcast while Waikehe is sunny. NE winds would be cooler and a little cloudier, SW winds (predominant) are probably what give Waiheke it's drier/sunnier micro-climate as SWers in the city can be cool, cloudy and showery even in Summer sometimes.
Cheers

Philip D

Cruise to Norfolk Island

Hi , we are on the Seabourn Encore departing Auckland Sat 23rd, Opua 24th then at sea 25th en route to Norfolk Island. Departs 6pm 26th to Milford Sound. Based on your forecast it seems like we will have a lumpy trip . At what point do Cruiselines change the itinerary for Passengers safety? Cheers Rob

Hi Rob, Cruises and Flights

Hi Rob, Cruises and Flights operate in similar ways. On the day of travel (or the night before) the pilot/captain and airline/cruise company will make the decision on whether to travel or not. At this stage it's hard to know what the shipping routes will be like, large ships are usually pretty good at tracking around the worse stuff. We don't know their thresholds for delays though. Hopefully you'll still set off on time, they will likely be trying to fine tune the forecast like we are trying to do right now too.

All the best!
Cheers
Phil D

Weather for 23rd Feb in Darfield

Hi there, I have had a look at your forecast for Christchurch, but wanted to know your prediction for Darfield, with the northerly winds Im thinking Darfield will be a little different.