Weather Forecast for Kaikoura9m above sea level
Partly cloudy. Breezy Easterly winds.
Now
Today
Tonight
Next 24 Hours in Kaikoura
Next 9 Days in Kaikoura
Day
Night
18km/h
chance
of rain
32.7mm
Day
Night
10km/h
chance
of rain
0.9mm
Day
Night
11km/h
chance
of rain
trace
Day
Night
15km/h
chance
of rain
trace
Day
Night
21km/h
chance
of rain
trace
Day
Night
13km/h
chance
of rain
1.1mm
Day
Night
17km/h
chance
of rain
6.3mm
Day
Night
19km/h
chance
of rain
11.1mm
Day
Night
19km/h
chance
of rain
4.2mm
Comments
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Carla on 9/04/2026 10:45pm
Hi Phil, Can you explain why the windspeeds for the incoming cyclone differ considerably between your rural weather forecast and the Met office warnings?
I have looked at the Whangarei wind forecast for Saturday and Sunday and it is 39km/h with gusts of up to 71km/h max on Saturday and and 40km/h with gusts of 74km/h max on Sunday.
The Met office predicts from 11pm Sat, 11 Apr – 2pm Sun, 12 Apr: Severe gale southeasterlies changing to severe gale southwesterlies during Sunday afternoon, gusting 130km/h in exposed places. Moderate chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.
Since we overlook the sea we do get more rain and wind than Whangarei itself sometimes, so I looked up Taiharuru as well and there the wind is 47km/h with 78km/h gusts.
From past experience I know that they tend to try and cover all eventualities, however this seems to be a big gap this time.
Any ideas?
Reply
WW Forecast Team on 10/04/2026 1:27am
Hi Carla, the MetService warnings are for the region you are in, with highest wind speeds and rainfall quite often in more exposed places (mountains, ranges, islands, extreme coastal areas) – hence their higher numbers as warnings capture what is POSSIBLE as well as what is LIKELY. Our data tries to look at what is likely, but in any storm event you can double your wind gusts or rainfall to get an idea as to what more exposed areas might be getting.
Our data also updates each hour, which on the day itself can be very helpful – and also can see our own numbers lift as data gets more locked in.
– WW
Reply
Jo on 9/04/2026 9:25pm
Hi, is the wind for tomorrow afternoon in North Auckland likely to increase above predicted levels? Are you seeing the cyclone tracking faster than predicted? I see warnings got moved from early Sunday morning to 9pm Saturday.
Reply
WW Forecast Team on 10/04/2026 1:28am
Hi Jo, we haven’t seen much change in the forecast for this weekend with strong winds developing on Saturday and peaking going into Sunday. Check our latest video today for full details.
– WW
Reply
Jason on 9/04/2026 8:46pm
HI Phill, why are we not getting predicted wind speeds for the incoming storm. the forecasts are showing only 38km
Reply
Jacques on 9/04/2026 11:24pm
It’s a cyclone – no one can predict their path 100%. If it moves more east or west than predicted then your winds where you are go from 150km/h to 50km/h and they come from the opposite direction, or vice versa
Reply
josh on 31/03/2026 9:21pm
i just saw the rain accumulative maps for next week on your site and it says 100mm is possible for auckland next monday/tuesday!!!!
wheres el nino?
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