Weather Forecast for Invercargill

Hi there, yes you've been in a bit of a shadow for the big rain. Too far south to get the northern downpours and during Fehi the rain bands again missed your area (from South Taranaki to Kapiti) - this was mostly due to the South Island ranges getting in the way. It's really just been bad luck. It looks a little more positive for you in the coming days, so fingers crossed!

Cheers
WW

HI there, we are upgrading the PWS live obs page in the near future as we continue to migrate over to IBM's new Weather Company. This is an expense for us so is taking time. In the meantime we're displaying the WU network which is very handy but has about 10% of weather stations that aren't too reliable (so always pays to look at surrounding stations to get a good idea). We're also looking forward to the New Zealand Government making the weather stations we all collectively fund at NIWA and MetService open and available at some point time - NZ is the only country in the western world to delay this data for people to use simply for the commercial profits of Government Agencies.

Cheers

WW

At this stage probably not however there is certainly a chance things could dry out for a time in some areas (especially eastern areas). A fine line between heavy sub-tropical rain and just drizzle and dry spells. A very hard forecast to perfectly nail due to this fine line. That's probably not a helpful reply!
Cheers
WW

It's what happens when you live on an island in the South Pacific :) 

- WW

Hi Lee, thank you for kind comments. We always get attacked by them for advanced stories and they never credit us ever when we are right. We wrote the story today due to demand from the public including Government Agencies. MetService is a COMMERCIAL agency, not a public department. They see us as a competitor. We, however, see them as our big brother - instead they behave like a bit of a bully time and time again for their own commercial gains. It's why MBIE has provided an official review to the Government saying the NZ set up is the worst in the world due to this commercial focus.

We're not perfect, we make mistakes - but we're in the private sector and it's wrong for a Government agency in a free society to attack us this way. In fact we always say during storms to keep up with MetService warnings also. We're very pleased that just this afternoon Minister Woods' Office has invited us to meet with them face to face at the Beehive to discuss the issues with the current weather industry set up.

Kind regards
Philip DUncan

Hi there

With the way the weather is at the moment I wouldn't like to say too much as those dates are a fair way out, at the moment the tropics seem quite active and there is even the potential for ex tropical cyclones comes down onto the upper North Island around mid February. It could all clear by the time your holiday comes around but still it's a bit hard for me to say that right now. Maybe if you come back and ask 5 to 6 days out things may have narrowed down a tad more?

If we don't hear back from you have a great holiday anyway, thanks for writing in!

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there - looks like there will be some rain around. Take a look at our latest weather video as it very much focuses on these areas.
Cheers
WW

Hey Dave - yes we're well aware of a likely tropical cyclone next week but the modelling isn't on the same page about this one and where it will track. Either way it looks like a significant storm though! But too much conflicting data to really be detailed about it just yet and if it will even reach New Zealand. I do mention it in my weather video later this morning too, but we're just waiting another day or so to get more confident with the data.

Cheers
Phil

Hi Kelly, there is a tropical low moving in this weekend bringing periods of rain to northern New Zealand. Once you get above that 70% mark it tends to indicate rain at times (but sometimes the front can break up a bit with dry spells). It's a bit of a complicated set up this time around but it does appear to be a wet day - however the reason why the % of rain is fluctuating a bit is because the bulk of the rain looks to be just west of Auckland with an easterly blowing through (helping to push it west). There's a fairly fine line between dry weather and wet weather once you get to your area so keep checking the forecasts as each day it's being fine tuned. Sorry we can't be any more specific than that just yet!
Cheers
Philip D

Hi there, there is a tropical low moving in this weekend bringing periods of rain to northern New Zealand. It's a bit of a complicated set up this time around but it does appear to be a wet day - however the reason why the % of rain is fluctuating a bit is because the bulk of the rain looks to be just west of Auckland with an easterly blowing through (helping to push it west). There's a fairly fine line between dry weather and wet weather but currently it looks like it will affect Auckland off and on. We'll have a much clearer idea by tomorrow. It's not a very straightforward set up as the low is fairly weak - but has plenty of rain around it.

Cheers
WW

Depends where you are, got to 24 in Auckland today which is pretty good.

There has been a cool spell recently but that's fine and normal, will be warmer weather on the board again soon however tropical lows may mean it's looking a bit wet.

WW

Hi Dale, yes we have a couple of tropical lows to deal with over the next 10 days but after that it looks like another big high will be rolling back in across the country from the Tasman Sea. Tropics very active now so may be the dominant force heading into March.
Cheers
WW

Hi Dee

Was just chatting to Phil about this, we see no evidence of an early winter. Just a SW flick at the moment then a return to warmer weather later this week / next week.

In saying that it will come eventually, might be cheaper to get some wood now then when winter hits?

Thanks for writing in!

Aaron

Hi there, when you say the weather forecast keeps changing how much is the % of rain specifically changing? That's the key one to work out if we're trending towards a wetter day or a drier one.  The reason the forecasts are changing is due to a tropical low expected to brush northern New Zealand across the end of this week - not like last week's low that came to us directly, this one is swiping us from east to west. It's a tricky set up - keep focused on the % of rain. Anything above 60% means wet weather is likely but by Saturday the low may be far enough away to only generate a few showers in the Auckland region. If winds tilt ESE then Coromandel Peninsula blocks most of the wet weather - if winds swing ENE then rain can come in. 

The most important piece of long range forecasting isn't the text or the weather icon - it's that percentage of rainfall + wind direction.

Cheers

WW

Hi there

It's not a totally straight forward day. Generally speaking a few morning showers clear then it could be sunny spells and some cloud for the rest of the day. But once again, not that straight forward, there is an area of instability forming late morning especially about southern parts of Auckland (more into the Waikato and across to the Bay Of Plenty) that could bring an isolated downpour or two late morning till mid afternoon then any should clear away as a west to southwest breeze starts to become a little more dominant. Isolated showers by nature are just that, you can get them and other times you may remain completely dry.

Hopefully that answers your question in some way. If it showers or rains, just find some cover for a bit :D

Have a great day!

Cheers
Aaron

Hey there! Definitely much cooler now that this small low that started near Haast on the South Island's West Coast after the excyclone has just reached Auckland! It's come in a couple of hours sooner which may be the reason for the lower temperature. Some parts of Auckland may still have sunny spells today though - so 21 to 24 is still possible with peak heat not for another four or so hours. But definitely a cool down!! :) Quite refreshing :)

- WW

Hi there, just a couple things. Firstly we're an entirely free service, you pay for MetService in your taxes (Also Niwa, another Government forecaster). Not sure about you, but I normally complain about things I pay for rather than free things. Secondly, the The Weather Company forecasts are updated every 15 minutes from IBM's global Super Computer and have bee proven to be more accurate overall (independently by IBM) than either of the NZ Government forecasters. They aren't perfect though - no forecaster is. While the icons don't always match the forecast (something we are working on but is harder than you might think to improve) the general data (winds, temps etc) is quite reliable. Showers by nature can be hit and miss - what you want to look for is the % chance of those showers. If under 60% then there's a high chance you will have a mostly or completely dry day. The hourly data gives you risks for weather to help you better understand the set up around you - sometimes there can be an 80% chance of a shower but it hits just down the road. We're giving you more tools/data to see what the weather is doing than any other forecaster - and your taxes fund two others - we do this for you for free. The Weather Company owns Wunderground - which we used to have before this upgrade, so this is a step up from that data which we had for the previous three years. If we didn't have these extra forecasts we'd only have 6 cities in NZ with WeatherWatch written forecasts and we'd have to use MetService for the rest...that would then also limit how many people had a forecast specific to their location.
Cheers
WW

Hello there

Thanks for that! :)

Saturday night, it's a hard one, some models suggest rain hanging around in the evening while others suggest rain easing to showers late afternoon. Either way I think there will be some form of precipitation about, hopefully it will have eased to showers by the time the concert comes along as with showers you tend to get dry spells at times.

Have a good night!

Cheers
Aaron