Hi Chris, within 24 hours the forecasts do update hourly and reflect that – this is capturing nearby rain events and trying to more accurately place them. If Niwa and MetService had open weather data in NZ then all forecasters would ingest that tax funded weather data into the forecasts (as we do in Australia, UK, USA, Canada, Japan etc) to make them even more consistent. What you’re seeing is the forecasts try to lock in something that is developing (in this case, a large area of low pressure is about to cross NZ with 360 degree wind shifts in some regions and rain, thunderstorms/instability. If you monitor the weather graphs at RuralWeather.co.nz you may find it more consistent and it’s more visual.

Hope that helps,
Cheers
WW

Hi there, the SST was over Antarctica and is not the reason sea temperatures and air temperatures north of NZ are warmer than usual at the moment – as that link talks about it’s due to La Nina, which has formed in the central Pacific Ocean at the equator, but affects airflows into northern NZ and helps lift sea temperatures in the western Pacific. The SST is likely contributing to the opposite – the polar blasts consistently hitting South-East Australia and brushing the very south of the South Island from time to time. There isn’t much data on SSTs and because Niwa/Earth Sciences NZ chooses to commercially compete with us rather then behave like a public science agency we can’t access NZ’s public/Government data in this area to share with you to make more sense of it sadly.

Hope that helps 🙂
– Phil D

Hi Stewart – they need open data. Basically that means MetService and Niwa don’t get to commercially control publicly/tax funded data (like observations and radar). Open data is how it’s done in all other modern nations, but in NZ we tax fund data so commercial Government agencies can control any competition and limit it – and as a result NZ has less accurate weather forecasts than in Australia where open data is standard. This is done by design to keep Niwa and MetService commercially relevant rather than looking at what is best for NZ Inc.

Sadly this won’t likely change in NZ as the political process is severely corrupted (by that we mean the discussions within Government about public weather data use are private and decided by unelected officials, and often involve the actual CEO’s of MetService and Niwa – who personally profit from holding this data back from the public).
Phil D

Hi Pam, not sure what the wording was when you checked, but it currently says scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and downpours have formed in Marlborough but not over Blenheim as of writing this – but you should be tracking on rain radar today due to this.

The lack of rain radar data from the NZ Government means all forecasters in NZ can’t fine tune these downpours into the forecast once they develop on the day (and track them automatically in real time via your forecast). We’re working hard and investing a lot with MetService to improve in this area, but New Zealand is behind other nations and it limits the accuracy specifically around afternoon downpours that suddenly form. It’s a big issue for a small company to take on but we’re doing our best.

The MetService thunderstorm outlook has a moderate risk today for Blenheim: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps-radars/lightning/thunderstorm-outlook in your area.

If you watch our week day weather videos you should be able to get better context about any “rain” that is in your local forecast – and if you use the other tools on our site (thunderstorm outlooks, rain radar, chance of rain etc) it should also help you plan better and have fewer surprises/frustrations.

Kind regards,
– WW