Weather Forecast for Alexandra

Hi there, yes we are seeing GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS G (Australia) and UK Met Office all somewhat aligning. We're likely to make our first detailed call tomorrow on what we think will happen. It's likely Cyclone Oma will entirely miss NZ but it's looking likely it will help fuel a new larger low in the New Zealand area. The modelling was always confident of a new low forming, but GFS in particular was lagging and showing Oma still directly coming in. A lot of moving parts and if we do end up with a very large system it can sometimes create large areas of calm and dry too... so still a lot to fine tune in the days ahead.

Cheers

WW

Hi there, due to the complexity of the low this weekend (we don't think a direct hit from Oma is likely, but a new large low will form instead) we can't really answer with certainty. Your best best is to pay close attention to the 10 day forecasts we have for Paekakariki and in particular the HOURLY forecasts which will show you the % of rain, wind speed, temperature etc. There may be some large areas of dry Friday and weekend, so keep checking back with the forecasts - the later you can leave your decision the more likely the forecasts will be locked in.

Cheers
WW

Hi there Bill,  Waikehe Island does have a different climate to Auckland, it tends to be drier in summer and often misses all the showers in winter that Auckland can get. Quite a few people believe the micro-climate there is quite different to Auckland. The island can be vulnerable to thunderstorms that form in the Harbour and Gulf, but often the city may be cloudy/overcast while Waikehe is sunny. NE winds would be cooler and a little cloudier, SW winds (predominant) are probably what give Waiheke it's drier/sunnier micro-climate as SWers in the city can be cool, cloudy and showery even in Summer sometimes.
Cheers

Philip D

Hi Rob, Cruises and Flights operate in similar ways. On the day of travel (or the night before) the pilot/captain and airline/cruise company will make the decision on whether to travel or not. At this stage it's hard to know what the shipping routes will be like, large ships are usually pretty good at tracking around the worse stuff. We don't know their thresholds for delays though. Hopefully you'll still set off on time, they will likely be trying to fine tune the forecast like we are trying to do right now too.

All the best!
Cheers
Phil D

Hi there

Might be a little changeable that far out, specifics may need to be tweaked but overall Chch and Darfield are both looking dry on Saturday. Darfield a tad warmer then Chch near the coast. Looks fairly cloudy going by the latest information, some sun possible later in the afternoon or evening. Winds from the northeast becoming a little blustery by evening.

Hope that helps!

Cheers
Aaron

Especially at the moment, then again too much could be no good. Will see what the coming weekend brings.

Aaron

Hi there, that is the name the owner of the station has given it we believe. This is the location it is showing as:

Hi there, please see our latest news story about Cyclone Oma and how it is making for changeable forecasts this weekend. We can't yet firmly answer your question sorry. Keep an eye on our forecasts written by WW for Auckland, also the hourly forecasts by TWC are updated hourly and cover % of rain and wind speeds. 

Latest news here: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/cyclone-omas-future-track-remains-uncertain-5050-chance-nz-has-severe-weather-19-maps

Cheers
WW

Hi there, we receive them from a combination of public and private stations all over the country. You can see the full network here: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/observations

If you have a reading that is wildly incorrect please give us the full Station ID and we can remove it.

Kind regards
WW Team

Hi there, you'll need to contact NIWA sorry, as we they don't allow us to freely share the tax funded data in an easy way, so you'll need to directly contact them with the request. Sorry we can't be of more help, the Government recently rejected opening this data up to be freely shared due to their own commercial priorities.
Kind regards

WW

Hi there, you'll need to keep up to date with this likely changeable forecast - it's changeable due to Cyclone Oma which will be to our north west then and while still a distance from NZ it may trigger a local area of low pressure. WeatherWatch uses the power of IBM (the most powerful super computer for weather in NZ), MetService has no super computer so we are unsure about their long range data sorry - we currently do not even monitor it. We should know by Monday next week a lot more about Feb 23. At this stage dry is winning more than rain most days, but check in again with us very early next week.

Cheers

WW

Good Morning Henry. We currently have more weather stations than any of the forecasters we must tax fund but some of this data has been switched off due to a couple of reasons. 1) Being delayed before being made public (ie, NIWA even though we all fund them, they delay sharing public weather obs by 24 hours and MetService up to 3 hours) so some have been removed from the Government side. 2) As for the private side, because we have so many stations to choose from not always the most local one is the most accurate one. We're working on a better observations lay out this year, one that will put the power in your hands to choose another local station should the one we automatically pick not be the one you want. Watch this space.

Kind regards

Phil D 

Hi there

Thankyou!

Perhaps early next week, but not all that cool, highs will still likely be in the early to mid twenties. Otherwise the warm weather continues :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, just looked into this and it certainly seems strange. We may do some further digging but first glance is this detailed local forecast may actually be picking a location on the mountain (it shows a 70% chance of an afternoon heat downpour there, even though it's not happening the risk is there). Could you use Tihoi or Bennydale? Both of those nearby locations are much more inline with your weather with dry skies and highs close to 30 :)

Cheers WW

Hi there

Phil wrote a very detailed reply just below to a question similar to yours, atleast it has the answers you need. Here it is! :)

"

May be an isolated heavy shower on Tuesday next week (19th). On the same note there is a chance it could be fairly dry, it just depends where showers form in the afternoon.

Otherwise it's looking quite dry out till the last day of February which is as far as I can see.

Cheers
Aaron

:) "Chance" would maybe be better!

- WW

Hi there, take a look at this news story - it has the latest on the storm and future possible tracking. We also have details in our latest weather video on the right hand side of the page.

Cheers

WW

Hey there, thanks so much for your message, we love getting ones like this one that drill down. Firstly, we're hugely disappointed Labour Minister Megan Woods said to us in a Beehive meeting in October that MetService/NIWA making profits for them to spend was much more important than making data (we all collective tax fund) being freely available. Personally, I was gutted by that as she is supposed to be the Minister for "Innovation" and "science". 

NZ is the only country in the western world to be like Russia/China in the weather world where the people are taxed to create a weather observations they cannot then openly use.

That aside, we are very grateful to the hundreds of hard working tax paying Kiwis who have uploaded their data. However you're slightly wrong that it's all amateur - yes there is definitely a majority of private weather stations run by 'amateurs' but we also have Govt airport data in the mix and professional private vineyard stations too. The truly "amateur" ones are sometimes quite obvious - they tend to be different to the many around them. We have no support from NZ Government - in fact 2 (of 3) Government run commercial competitors (NIWA, MetService) have been trying hard (including sending us legal threats from tax-funded-lawyers for daring to use public tax funded data and weather observations) to stop us. We have made complaints to the Commerce Commission which they are currently now investigating. So we're doing our best to share more data - and our advice to those who see incorrect readings is to take a look at the totality of stations around them and see the average.

It was WeatherWatch directly that made the changes to the Weather Company stations and we're working hard to improve our services this year, including adding some (delayed sadly) Government/tax payer owned data.

Hope that helps :)
Cheers and thanks again for the message and support.
Phil Duncan

PS - If you see a weather station you think is consistently or extremely out of touch, simply give us the full STATION ID (in the app and website in the "NOW" section) or from the Observations page directly - and we will block it until they reach the right standards. 

Hi there

Not sure on March 4th, that's too far beyond any crystal ball I have unfortunately. Hopefully it is settled for you!

As for the 16th to 23rd, there are hints of tropical activity around then bringing in easterly quarter winds. There doesn't look to be any direct hits from lows at this stage but there may be a few periods of rain / showers. But there appears to be days of dry with sun / cloud also. It's probably going to be more dry then it is wet but prepare for a few wet periods I would say. Keep an eye on this if you like: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Russell

Hope that helps, have a great time away! :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, at this stage there may be a cold front moving up the country around Feb 21 and 22 bringing a south to south west change and showers to Kapiti. Not locked in being so very far out but that's the latest.  In a few days time we'll have a better idea. 
All the best :)
- Aaron

At some point in the future, sure there will probably be a risk of some sort. In the near future? Doesn't seem to be any big risks at the moment. Tropical activity seems to be staying to the north at this stage.

Use these maps here: http://weathermap.co.nz/forecast-maps

Click on "Rain", you can scroll through the next couple of weeks using those maps. As you'll see, no tropical cyclones coming down near NZ at this stage.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

When you click on those beach locations a box will pop up and it does have tide information. :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

The later in the day you can book that cruise the better from what I can see. Looks quite wet in the morning and for a fair amount of the afternoon to be honest, there is a chance it could break in the afternoon perhaps so you never know.

Have a great day either way! :)

WW