Weather Forecast for Alexandra148m above sea level
Showers early. Light Southerly winds.
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Next 24 Hours in Alexandra
Next 9 Days in Alexandra
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11km/h
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35km/h
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16.1mm
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3.9mm
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Latest Video
Large low today, hit & miss downpours / thunderstorms + your weekend outlook
A large low pressure system is bringing unstable weather conditions to most of the North Island today, resulting in downpours,…
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Christopher Randal on 2/12/2025 10:52pm
75mm in 90 minutes, accompanied by severe thunderstorms and large hail. Waharoa, near Matamata.
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Rhian Price on 2/12/2025 9:30pm
Hey guys just wondered why the forecast for manly whangaparaoa has been SO wrong the last couple of weeks, I get it that mother nature changes her mind but its been really wrong.
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WW Forecast Team on 2/12/2025 9:51pm
Hi there, what specifically has been wrong? Also, do you watch Phil’s weather videos? If you do, he usually points out when the forecasts are likely to “break” – today is a good example of that actually. Our video will be out before noon.
– WW
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Chris on 1/12/2025 7:56pm
Hi Team. I am regularly mystified at how your Chch forecast (temp, wind, rain) can change from when I check it before I go to bed, to when I re-check it the following morning. This morn, the temp, wind and rain predictions are very different from last night’s forecast. It sometimes feels like instead of a forecast, you are providing an hourly update on what to expect for the following hour.
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WW Forecast Team on 1/12/2025 8:53pm
Hi Chris, within 24 hours the forecasts do update hourly and reflect that – this is capturing nearby rain events and trying to more accurately place them. If Niwa and MetService had open weather data in NZ then all forecasters would ingest that tax funded weather data into the forecasts (as we do in Australia, UK, USA, Canada, Japan etc) to make them even more consistent. What you’re seeing is the forecasts try to lock in something that is developing (in this case, a large area of low pressure is about to cross NZ with 360 degree wind shifts in some regions and rain, thunderstorms/instability. If you monitor the weather graphs at RuralWeather.co.nz you may find it more consistent and it’s more visual.
Hope that helps,
Cheers
WW
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WeatherObserver on 1/12/2025 8:28am
There is an increasing talk about above normal SSTs in NZ:
https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1993048544429871146?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Was that the cause of the intense downpours that hit Auckland last Sunday and caused some surface flooding with 40-60 mm in around an hour?
They also have suggested that the SSTs are similar to the summer of 2022 to 2023, do you agree with this?
Reply
WW Forecast Team on 1/12/2025 8:57pm
Hi there, the SST was over Antarctica and I don’t believe is the driver behind sea temperatures and air temperatures in northern NZ being warmer than usual at the moment – as that link talks about it is due to La Nina, which has formed in the central Pacific Ocean at the equator, but affects airflows into northern NZ and helps lift sea temperatures in the western Pacific. The SST may actually be contributing to the opposite – the polar blasts consistently hitting South-East Australia and brushing the very south of the South Island from time to time. There isn’t much data on SSTs and because Niwa/Earth Sciences NZ chooses to commercially compete with us rather then be a public science agency we can’t access NZ’s public/Government data in this area to share with you to make more sense of it.
One thing to note is that the more unsettled the Southern Ocean weather pattern is (due to the SST) the more likely NZ will have bursts of warmer than usual weather and colder than usual weather (spring like) as the polar vortex is very wavy at the moment (the blue polar line in our weather videos).
Hope that helps 🙂
– Phil D
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Thameemul Ansari on 2/12/2025 7:58am
So can I conclude that warmer than average sea surface temperatures around northern NZ due to la nina are contributing to above normal land temperatures as well as enhancing downpours and thunderstorms like we had last Sunday?
Also, could you please summarize how sea surface temperatures around NZ and sudden stratospheric warming around the South Pole affect the weather pattern?
Thank you
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