Weather Forecast for Alexandra

Hi there, we still have a cold southerly next week but it may not be a major event. It looks weak to begin with then peaks around Wednesday at this stage. We'll have more details in our weather video out around noon on Friday.

- WW

Hi there

Wednesday next week is quite far away at this point in time but currently I'm seeing a reasonable chance of showers during the day, meaning wet weather. I won't put a percentage figure on it but I'll say a medium to good chance of showers looking at the situation currently.

Come back and ask closer to time if you like otherwise have a good trip.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

It should be dry for most of today then the odd light shower starts to move in during the evening, rain moves in overnight. Thursday looks to be the next mainly dry day, later in the evening a few showers move in however.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

Not sure what you mean by stars storm exactly. But Tuesday looks like there will be occasional showers, more so from afternoon then rain develops in the evening. Rain eases to showers again overnight as breezy northwesterly winds change southwest, showers gradually ease during Wednesday with long dry spells developing in the evening. Winds fresh from the southwest on Wednesday. Winds overall are not too bad on Tuesday then in the evening they start to become quite blustery and this continues for much of Wednesday.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, the current pattern is encouraging wetter weather in the west and drier in the east (a typical early spring pattern to be honest). With sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea cooling a lot more now (cooler than average in some areas after the marine heat wave that encouraged all those cyclones earlier this year) so this bodes better for a drier pattern around NZ. With the arrival of westerlies already and a warmer than average pattern it's perhaps a safe bet that Sept will see a continuation of August - driest in the east, wettest in the west (and wettest weather the further south you go on the western coastline, ie Fiordland, South Westland).

Cheers
Philip Duncan

Hi there, thanks for the question. On Monday night and Tuesday morning there is a cold front moving up the West Coast and into the North Island with some heavy rain. Pukaki is amongst this and probably explains why you're seeing a bit of a split forecast - technically rain in the area but it's moving away on Tuesday morning and becomes patchy over the day with clouds breaking up later too. As we head into Wednesday it turns into more of a showery SW flow which usually clears the skies a lot more inland and to the west. Monday night looks cloudy, Tuesday night should be improving with perhaps the best sky conditions early on Wednesday morning at this stage. It's a bit of a messy forecast.
All the best!
WW

Hi there

There shouldn't be any low or mid level cloud, it's mainly thick high cloud that is the issue here. So I would expect high cloud to thicken up in the morning and hang around for much of the day. There may be breaks in the high cloud at times but for the most part it's looking fairly widespread. It looks to be a dry day.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there. Within the global scientific community there appears to be growing confidence of a developing El Nino but for now we have a neutral pattern (anything can come at us). Recent cooling in the Tasman Sea indicates a *possible* slightly drier pattern developing for New Zealand in the months ahead, but I wouldn't bet on that just yet. The pattern around New Zealand seems incredibly chaotic at the moment with a definitely lean to frequent westerly flows. El Nino may enchance this pattern towards summer IF it develops and even if it does develop it would need to be a moderate to strong one, thankfully at this stage that does not appear to be the consensus. So, most likely the chaotic pattern will continue (currently bringing a warmer than normal pattern). Will know more about any possible summer trends that may be developing some time in September/October.

Cheers
Philip Duncan

Hi there

You'll be fine, no fog in the forecast :) Hope you have a good day!

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, interesting question! We currently are trialling the Humidex (although to be fair it's not really relevant in winter), but in summer this gives us the similar values as "real feel". Wind chill is another feature we're looking to add in the future. In NZ the 'feels like' temperature can be quite dramatic from region to region. In summer Auckland can have 28 degrees as an air temp but high humidity creates a 'feels like' temp in the mid 30s, while Canterbury at the same time can have an actual air temperature in the mid 30s but the feels like temp isn't any higher due to very low humidity. So it is a great guide for NZ and our various regions.  We hope to expand this at some point in 2019.

Cheers

WW

Hi there

Well someone will be right and someone wrong, and there's more time to go till the weekend arrives so forecasts may still change a little between now and then. I guess it's a bit like there being 3 or 4 major supermarket brands, after a while you tend to gravitate to one perhaps as it may suit your needs more so it's a similar story here. You'll have to follow us all perhaps then come to a conclusion over time as to what suits your needs or is more accurate in your eyes then you'll know who to follow :)

WW

G'day there

Aslong as an asteroid doesn't strike the area then yes it should be ok :)

For roading information check out this site https://www.aa.co.nz/travel/roadwatch/

Appears to be all clear.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there

Should be all good, might be wet at times but snow looks to be a bit higher up in the mountains.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi Abi, we have commercial historical data that we sell but sadly at the moment the NZ Government makes sharing tax paid free historical data tricky for us. You'll need to contact NIWA or MetService directly to get this information. We are meeting with the Minister of Science in September after she invited us to talk to her about the unfair restrictions placed on sharing tax funded data, so we hope in the future we can share that free service also with more user friendly ways of searching.

Kind regards and all the best with your project,
WW

Hi Des

Waitomo looks dry in the morning tomorrow then expect occasional showers from afternoon, winds from the west.

Saturday and Sunday in Ohakune looks a bit showery at times although of the two days Saturday will have long dry spells. Sunday has a higher chance of showers / rain.

If you want to keep on top of the situation feel free to use the search function on our home page and type in your locations. You can see rainfall percentages hour by hour on these pages.

Here is Waitomo http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Waitomo
And here is Ohakune http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/location/Ohakune

Hope you have a good time!

Cheers
Aaron

I would think so, yes :)

WW

Hi Fiona

Looks like early rain then the odd shower for the rest of the day, westerlies tending more southwest in the afternoon. Snow flurries down to about 1000m but may lower to 800m in the evening. Nothing heavy, just a few flurries.

That's how it looks currently :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, yes we do expect some snow on the Lewis Pass but unsure about specific totals on the road itself or if authorities will grade it or close the road. But we do expect some snow - here's our public 10 day Lewis Pass forecast. All the best.

Cheers
Philip Duncan

Hi there, thanks for the great update in your area. At this  stage we're in a neutral season (ie, no El Nino or La Nina) but expert global scientists (and some in NZ) think a late El Nino is likely (more westerlies). We shall see! As for now, yes, NZ is experiencing an average to warmer than average winter once again for the most part, and WeatherWatch is the only forecaster with this honest narrative. To answer your last question - yes, lately we have been. Of course this might change but the north of NZ is actually the most sensitive to cold (which some mock, but scientifically it's quite a real thing ... if the north stops getting frosts then something is definitely warming up and changing). Of course NZ might enter a cold spell next year .... our location on earth makes it tricky to be an accurate guide for the climate. We're in one of the most chaotic parts of the world! For now though, we expect an average to warmer than average winter to continue.

Cheers
WW

Current indications are it may be fairly calm around then due to anticyclones near by, but you are talking about something that is 8 to 10 days away and that could change by then. Keep an eye on our Wellington forecasts as the day approaches :)

Cheers
Aaron

The latest models indicate it may hold off a little now, still, it won't be a great day. Mainly cloudy with the odd patchy shower from late afternoon. Better then heavy downpours though! Winds fresh from the east or northeast and high's in the mid teens. I will say though don't count your chickens just yet, sometimes models that far out have a habit of flip flopping at times, the closer to the time in question is when they become more accurate.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, I think it came from a MetService story as we've been asked about it a lot on social media. WeatherWatch.co.nz's general outlook for winter is that a 'colder than average winter' isn't so likely for most (as that would take a significant effort when globally the world is warming...you can have colder than average periods but for the whole winter to be colder than average it would take a lot of significant very cold nationwide southerly events). In saying that, we have had a lot more southerlies this year compared to previous years, so it certainly is cooler than those years were. The past 4 or 5 winters have been milder than average so even a 'normal' winter would feel cold. We imagine while some pockets may be experiencing a colder than average winter this year, many regions are likely to have an average to milder than average winter. We are likely to have sub-tropical northerlies one week from today and potentially milder than usual weather continuing the following week (especially in the upper and eastern North Island). Hope that's of some help, just some opinions :) 

Cheers
Philip Duncan