February is upon us and the final offical month of summer still has plenty of hot days – but there’s a lot of low pressure in the mix. Many of us imagine February as the hottest, most settled, month of the year – but NZ’s location on earth (halfway between the equator and Antarctica and partially in the Roaring Forties) means every single year is different…and it’s all down to the lay of air pressure at the time.

There is a remarkable lack of high pressure in the coming weeks for our side of the planet. Not to say we don’t have high pressure sticking over NZ at times, but when you zoom out there isn’t as much high pressure as you’d normally think for the ‘main’ part of summer around NZ, Australia and the South-West Pacific region.

The El Niño we have right now means windier westerlies are more likely in NZ – and we’ve certainly had that over summer in the South Island – but the increase in low pressure around us means it won’t always be a westerly, with easterlies continuing to brush northern NZ due to so much low pressure in the tropics.

You could argue the tropics look more like La Niña than El Niño right now – both atmospherically and marine-wise.

El Niño is still with us officially – but the sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea and north of NZ in the tropics is anything but El Niño. It has a strong La Niña look to it. Our local sea surface conditions are normal according to the Moana Project.

Also, the Tongan underwater eruption two years ago may also be partially to blame, with some studies suggesting it’s warmed the planet by 0.5c. If so, that would definitely increase the chance of rainy areas. It’s possible El Niño weather in our part of the world has been complicated by this eruption – and the marine heatwaves – and it’s all combining to make our weather go one step forwards and one step backwards. It might explain why so many people across NZ and Australia are saying it doesn’t feel worse than a “normal summer” despite a strong El Niño at play (and yes, it very much is still officially here even if you don’t have the EN weather pattern at your place).

Long range data – and the lack of high pressure – suggests rainmakers will continue around NZ and Australia for the rest of summer – but some stubborn narrow areas of high pressure are still in the mix, especially from Perth to Adelaide to Melbourne – and then potentially on to NZ. Think of NZ as a double bed and the incoming highs are single duvets only. So not everyone will get coverage – and that allows for changeable weather around the edges.

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