Issued at 7:44am 14/05/2024

Valid from 7:44am 14/05/2024 to Midnight 14/05/2024

A low and associated rain-band with embedded thunderstorms in the north Tasman Sea will move towards the North Island today, with rain spreading onto Northland tonight. There a moderate risk that a few thunderstorms embedded within the rain-band will move into the Cape Reinga area late tonight, and a low risk elsewhere over the Far North as indicated on the chart. Any thunderstorms that develop will bring localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/h. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand today.

Issued at 8:55pm 14/05/2024

Valid from Midnight 14/05/2024 to Midday 15/05/2024

A low should lie west of central New Zealand on Wednesday morning, with an associated rain-band and embedded thunderstorms spreading southwards over northern and central New Zealand. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain about Northland through to mid or late morning, then spreading further south to affect Auckland from about dawn, and Coromandel Peninsula, northern Waikato and coastal Waitomo during the morning, then North Taranaki and western Bay of Plenty towards midday. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms affecting other central North Island areas from late morning as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain, mainly in the 10-25mm/h range, however for Northland there is a moderate risk of localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h, while for the Hauraki Gulf and Coromandel Peninsula the risk of downpours is low. If downpours do occur, they could cause surface flooding and make driving conditions hazardous. The thunderstorms may also bring wind gusts of 80-90km/h, and there is a low risk of one or two small tornadoes about coastal areas. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Wednesday morning.

Issued at 9:52am 14/05/2024

Valid from Midday 15/05/2024 to Midnight 15/05/2024

The low remains slow-moving west of central New Zealand during the second half of Wednesday, while the front and rain-band moves southeastwards across central New Zealand. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain about Bay of Plenty and Rotorua through the afternoon, and about far eastern Bay of Plenty and the far north of Gisborne/Tarawhiti through to the evening. There is also a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms about North Taranaki and coastal Waitomo into the early afternoon. A low risk covers many other North Island areas in the afternoon or early evening as indicated on the chart. Then, there is a further low risk of a few thunderstorms about the west coast from Auckland to North Taranaki late at night. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/h. In Bay of Plenty, the thunderstorms may also bring wind gusts of 80km/h, and a low risk of one or two small tornadoes (mainly near the coast). No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.