Developing this Weekend

Another spring blast is moving in this weekend, mainly Sunday. We'll have extra updates as it moves north.

Q & A with controversial "moon man" Ken Ring


Filed in:

TOP DEBATE:  Have your say...

He's a regular contributor to the comments section at WeatherWatch.co.nz and Ken Ring of www.predictweather.com often causes controversy when he talks of his predictions.

WeatherWatch.co.nz wanted to find out more about the man behind the moon....so presented him with 10 questions for him to answer for our readers.

1. What lead you to using the moon to predict weather patterns?

It was my experience living beside the sea for 10 years during the 1970s and noticing that the highest tides in the months where accompanied by storms. It happened so often it was obvious to me that there was some connection. I started keeping records and planning ahead to have perishables undercover when the next one arrived. Then I started noticing that the perigees, which created the highest tides, seemed also to be responsible for many increases in earthquake activity, droughts, floods, you name it. It took me about four years to come up with a reliable system.

 

2. How does the moon affect our weather?

As with all bodies in space, the moon has a gravitational effect on the earth and everything on the earth. That means it has an effect on movable bodies such as the mass of water, the flexible land, and the air, which alone has more than 10 times the amount of water in it than all the rivers of the world at any one time. The moon has no eyes nor brain so cannot sort out where the water is, nor land from water or from a heavy gas such as air, which weighs 5000 million million tons. The size of the atmosphere is incredible. On a hot afternoon the atmosphere can pick up water from a gulf at the rate of 5.5 billion tons an hour, hoist it up and carry it, later to release it as rain. A single small fluffy cloud can hold up to 1000 tons of potential moisture. A summer thunderstorm can unleash as much energy as a dozen Hiroshima-style bombs, and 45,000 thunderstorms are brewed around the earth every day. Yet one hurricane releases almost as much energy in one second. The atmosphere shelters us from the fierce heat of the sun and from the cold of space. The height of the air at any one time increases or decreases that shielding. Weather is what results. By its pull on the air, the moon daily changes the atmosphere's height and brings particular weather patterns to particular locations, varying as to the geographical nature of those locations, in the same way as the tide varies according to the shape of a coastline. It would be more weird if a huge planet that was between a third and a quarter the size of our own, at only 10x Earth circumferences away, did not have any affect. It is like a dwarf person running round and round you all day. If you do not think that would have an effect on you, ask the mother of a two-year-old.

 

3. What makes your forecasts different to "main stream" weather providers?

Mainstream forecasters can only see rain when it arrives on their radar. Their technology is designed to photograph the tops of clouds from satellites and to measure changes at sea and ground level, and at the height weather balloons float to. The assumption is that what is happening now may continue to happen over the next day or so. For half of the month that proves to be correct, which is when the moon's orbit is moving slowly relative to the Earth's orbit. But when the moon speeds up, weather systems also speed up and can change much more quickly. That is when forecasters are the most wrong, and these times are over new moon, perigee and lunar equinox. The difference between my work and that of the regular forecaster is like this: the regular person might stand in the water at the beach and shout Hey everyone, our instruments tell us it's the month's highest tide! Whereas I am the one staying at time who has worked out and published the tide tables that predicted that tide to be highest on that particular day. Simply, I have a long-range system, the others do not. I do not have the technology to say exactly what is going to happen and where over the next 24 hours, and they do not have any lunar programs that detect weather reliably beyond three days. In fact the New Zealand Metservice honestly claims that after three days a cyclonic system can be 1000 km out, and for every day after that this error factor doubles. Which makes the 5-day TV forecast a little suspect.

 

4. How accurate are you compared to main stream weather providers?

We all seem to claim about 80-85%. This is because weather is not an exact science. There is an overshoot factor with rain falling over a wide area. You will hear forecasters often give a single day’s report that stretches from Kaitaia to Taupo, taking in Taranaki and Hawkes Bay. Yet all these places will not have exactly the same weather at the same time. I aim for a window of trends that give a 1- 3 day potential of opportunity. For my almanacs, which are written two years previously to cater for publishers timetables, I figure 1-3 days from two years away should be acceptable.

 

5. If you think you're on to something accurate, why don't MetService and other forecasters subsribe to your beliefs?

There are many reasons for this, and it is not quite true to say that there are not forecasters who believe what I am saying is valid. Many of the old forecasters would admit they generally kept an eye on what the moon was doing. Brendon Horan, the previous TV1 weather anchor was a firm believer in the moon, coming as he did from a Maori background and mindful of what he already knew from his elders. Augie Auer and I did many trips together and he, although initially a sunspot cycle man, knew of weather cycles and was slowly coming around to lunar possibilities. The old nautical almanacs for Mariners mentioned the perigees as storm producers. In all non-Western countries the moon is still regarded as the harbinger of weather. So it is only the west that has gone a different route. They did this 150 years ago with the establishment of the British Meteorological Society, as a matter of politics and religion, because they wanted to rid themselves of lunar astrologers like one Lieutenant Saxby who were gaining high public profile issuing very correct advance storm warnings to mariners. But there are other reasons, too. Metservices depend on government funding, and this increases when metservices are less correct. This is not saying that they try to be incorrect, but if they keep getting things right all the time then there is no reason to throw large sums of money at them so they can update their computers and increase their staff. The upshot is that there is less emphasis on improving techniques, and more emphasis on finding ways to increase funding, whatever that takes. So the new research into different techniques is just not being done.

 

6. The weather is a mix of pattern in chaos - how do you predict chaos?

I do not believe that weather has any chaos in it. The weather knows what it is doing, and as with all the rest of nature is patterned, cyclic, and therefore somewhat predictable to us humans struggling to come up with workable measurable systems. The attitude of meteorologists is like saying, we can tell you what the tide is doing for today and tomorrow, but after that random takes over and the water comes in and out whenever it feels like it. Just because forecasters do not employ a long-range system, does not mean that there might be one if they wanted to look for it. By definition you cannot predict chaos, but I had this conversation some time ago with Bob McDavitt. He claimed that weather is 20% pattern and 80% Chaos. I asked him which 20% was pattern. He replied it is uncertain. I asked how uncertain? He said 100%. And that illustrates the circularity of that line of questioning. My understanding is that Chaos Theory actually came out of Princeton University in 1976, and originated as a way of fudging uncertainty in weather forecasting and went on to become its own branch of science.

 

7. What is our winter going to be like this year

I believe it's going to be a cold winter, perhaps on a par with 1939 which was one of the coldest we have recorded. However I think we are coming to the end of our cold run and that next year will see a change in pattern, especially for the South Island. This winter will probably extend later, into a cold wet and cloudy spring, which will affect the growers. This will mean that due to the need to import food to stock supermarket shelves, food prices may disproportionately increase over January 2011.

 

8. How is it you can predict earthquakes too?

The air tide matches the sea and land tide as well. The earthquake in Samoa that produced the tsunami occurred almost exactly on their high tide. Whatever is pulling the water is pulling everything else as well. Just look at the new moon of a day or two ago, producing the current king tides around our coasts, and the concurrent timings of yesterday’s Chinese earthquake and today’s Iceland volcano. Anyone who bothers to Google "earthquakes and Moscow research", will find a Russian study that has shown that full moons bring most earthquakes. Like full moon, new moon is exerting strong gravitational pull, especially when that new moon is at a northern or southernmost point, because it is pulling laterally, just as if you were standing to the side holding a rope attached to a full bucket of water and pulling on it. The moon is at its northernmost point in about two day’s time. Predicting earthquakes requires a lot of calculation, which I did a few years ago one month ahead for three earthquake events in this country. I informed Morning Report and TV3 beforehand and when they came about, it became a TV3 Nightline Item with Amanda Gillies and a small crew arriving at my home. Sean Plunkett also interviewed me after the event but called what I did a fluke. I guess you can't win 'em all. The point is, it is possible but it would require cooperation between geologists, astronomers, and probably astrologers, but I doubt that anybody would fund such an enterprise.

 

9. Why do you think moon forecasting is so controversial?

The moon has always been the symbol of paganism, because to the early Christian church it represented cycles and prediction, and the original edict was that only God was allowed to know what was going to happen. That meant that anybody who prophesised anything was classed as a heathen. It also explains why the West moved away from the lunar calendar, which is still effective in the East for predicting monsoons. There is also a gender issue involved, because women were the Keepers of the Faith, and the goddesses were feminine, but the early church was patriarchal and still is. Many women still think the moon is in their domain because of menstrual (which comes from the word moon) cycles and because of this gender-war history. The situation has been muddied by all the migration that has occurred over the last century or so. Weather-stories were taken out of their locations of applicability, which being location-specific sometimes did not work in the new locations. In this way some of the old adages were distrusted, disregarded and forgotten, and much was lost that was also of universal value. I guess not enough was known from a scientific viewpoint that could sort the wheat from the chaff.

 

10. Anything else you want to say?

Thanks for this opportunity, and I would like to think moon forecasting might be of help to those who are already making planning decisions for their farming or other operations, like when to book hay, shearing or building contractors, or weddings, and may as well consider weather conditions as part of the mix. I also would like to see others apply these methods for themselves. I would like to see the day when what I am doing gains more of a running parallel to what Phil and other forecasters are doing, because we are employing different systems that should not be compared. Although I do name particular days on which I expect weather events, they are more points of focus of within three-day windows, and should be more regarded as trends rather than certainties of outcome. I have a free 230-page book on the whole subject available from my website called Predicting Weather By The Moon, which explains the air tide article more fully and will get people started if they want to use the moon method for themselves. I realize many people will be hearing about all this for possibly the first time, but this is only because our education system has also distanced itself from anything lunar, largely because the first schools were run by the church, which had a vested interest in denying the moon as I have explained. The most important thing I would like people to consider is that the weather may be more predictable than they have been led to believe, and in the same way as the tides, to which weather is connected, a certain amount of measurability is not only possible but should be, to a nation that embraces the outdoors in almost everything we do, our ongoing national focus.


Have your say on this article - post a comment below!


Comments

Science facts

Isn't it already a science believe that gravifty affects the earth. The solar system planets are held in place by gavifty and there pull or push against other planets. The moon is held in place by gravifty. The tides happen due to the moons pull on the earth. The centre of the earth in liquid magma logically this would be affected? Wouldn't this movement put stress on the earths plates, clausing stress fractures (earthquakes). Seems some of this affect should be predictable. It wasn't that long ago people where burned at the stake for claiming the earth was round or the earth went around the sun. I think Ken's putting 1 and 1 together and getting much closer to 2 than the accepted systems. Good on you Ken your a brave man.

Moon man is a complete

Moon man is a complete tosser.

bullshit

correct. heis a toser. any loser could come up with a predic tion and say its true .

Moon man

Kia Ora! To all you HATERS out there......What's the problem with the moon man???? People should be thanking this man for his warnings!!! If you people are too STUPID to take the warnings on board, then that's your choice, but don't dog the man for trying to shed some light on recent events. I personally would like to thank you Ken for the hard work and effort you have put in, to get these warnings out to UNGREATFUL know it alls. You are a FOOL if you don't take note of these warnings and you are PREPARED if you do! After all does it hurt to be prepared!!!!!

the problem is

His claims are completely ridiculous as there is no scientific evidence to back up his foolish claims. All he has done is scared people and caused many to flee Christchurch this weekend. I am not sure how you can call the non-believers stupid because we take advice from people with real knowledge and qualifications in the area of earthquakes...Ken has done far more damage than help. Civil defence has been telling us to 'be prepared' for years, we don't need some idiot telling us all to pack up and leave because he thinks the moon can cause significant earthquakes-it is just ignorance.

I live in Christchurch and am waiting for this quake but I am 100% sure it is not going to come since I have heard and read the facts before believing this nonsence Ken Ring is going on about.

Big suprise here....yea right

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10713721

still think its a load of rubbish??

You don't have to believe everything he says, but be careful about bashing people who have ideas different from your own. Just because you don't understand his science does not make it illegitimate. I think Mr. Ring deserves some apologies about now.

thank you,well said,i am glad

thank you,well said,i am glad to hear someone feels the same.=)

The Moon ... Marama

Reading your artical here about the moon prediction , Along time ago Maori's
Navigate the sea by the moon and stars , the moon will always be there warnings
Matariki is the Maori name for the group of stars also known as the Pleiades star cluster or The Seven Sisters; and what is referred to as the traditional Maori New Year. the new moon is rising , time to plant your crops etc.. Its good to no that theres some one out there reading the moon and stars , Sun etc ...The moon tells alot . Because those are what making things happen. So its a "BIG YES FOR ME MOON MAN I DO BELIEVE YOU" your predictions was right ..... you wasn't too far of on the days or months and the year when you said there was going to be another big earthquake somewhere ?

Thumbs up to Mr moon man

is it true .. ?

palmerston north .. 20 - 23 of march 2011 . Is it true that there is going to be a BIG earthquake in kapiti coast/manawatu region ? i live in palmerston north and honestly .. i am scared . im not sure what to beleive . i hope what you say is true ? i am a young chicken . had my 14th birthday this year . i am very worried about my family . i really hope it doe's not happen . could you PLEASE clear thing's up ? where is this earthquake predicted to occur in ? it would be nice to knoe and not have to have sleepless night's worrieing about my family / boyfriend / friend's . i have mucked up alot in my life and i dont want to see my family hurt even more . please help me . i ask not as a information hungry dork .. but as a fellow .. human . im sorry about all this . i just .. want to knoe . eh . thank you (; many thank's .. anonamous

Re: ..?is it true

Girl, you should worry more about your spelling and grammar than about these predictions which are a statistical certainty anyway.
Go back to school and study, then you need not be scared.
Calippo

Drilling on the moon a few years ago

I recall NASA ( I think it was them) announcing a few years back they had drilled into the moon and found water under the surface. It would have taken some years to get down that deep. Is it just a coincidence that there has been a big increase in wild weather and earthquakes these past 6 years? Could man's messing about on the moon have anything to do with its functioning and effect over earth? Maybe it does and nobody has any idea of the repercussions. Ken your opinion please?

earthquake

hi ken would like 2 no where u think the next earthquake will be on 20th march ? ive heard every1 sayn all diferent places. i have a young family an live in north canterbury is dat wher u reackon will b an how big is it meant 2 b ? cheers

Girl, you should worry more

Girl, you should worry more about your spelling and grammar than about these predictions which are a statistical certainty anyway.
Go back to school and study, then you need not be scared.
Calippo

Hi, im from christchurch nz

Hi, im from christchurch nz in new brighton, we got hit real hard this time I would like to no if possible how many earthquakes do you think we will have and how large I have a young child and want to keep her safe.

The Experts said the Earth was flat

Hang in there Ken.
It is not that long ago that the experts thought the earth was flat.
It took awhile to change their minds.
I have a friend that harvests hundreds of bales of hay each year.
She has been following your forecasts for the last few years and has not lost a bale due to the weather.
Thank you for explaining the science behind your forecast.

Hi Ken Ring is anything

Hi Ken Ring is anything predicted for Invercargill?

Cold winter ahead

Cold winter ahead

John Cambell Live

What an arrogant f...wit John was tonight!!!.
He will only let you speak if you have a high visiblity vest on and 3 support co-workers with certificates and the Person who pays Johns wages also pays the money wasting govt workers in the Hi vis. you should have walked out on the interview tonight mate. No point in sitting there being interveiwed by a dickhead that wont let you get a word in !!!
cheers

Hi I agree John Cambell was

Hi I agree John Cambell was more than arrogant, Ken Ring has saved lives !!!
People like John Cambell need to wake up.
If anyone does there homework on what Ken is saying it is 100% correct !!!

cheers

Cambell was arrogant and was

Cambell was arrogant and was not how an interview should be performed. Ring although may be charlatan, deserved a fair chance in the interview.
Fact - Ring has not saved lives.
Also Civil Defence has been providing information for public to be more prepared for many years, just people choose not to listen. Even after Sept 4, people did not get their survival kits. Education and common sense is required.

Ken is just helping people be prepared, however he is also a greater disservice as some people panic based upon his predictions.

Hi can you please tell me are

Hi can you please tell me are we always going to have earth quakes for a while now in christchuch? Around the full moon i see there is going to be a big one March 20-23 2011.
and do you know what area as i live in north canterbury and not keen to stick around for it.
And am really keen to learn more.
Thank you Barbara

I herd you on radio live a

I herd you on radio live a bit after the sept 4 quake.
You were talking about quake clusters on or around the full moon. I think you said mostly just after. Gess what? has bin happining just like you said.
The problem is I said to some people on the afternoon of the 21 feb looks good full moon has passed the shaking may be coming to an end.

20 March be good to get one wrong.

I can't stop reading!

I could spend hours and hour reading your literature. Its amazing. I read some in amoungst everything that you had a 230 page free report. Im going to find it an print it off. I think you do amazing work and I believe in you totally!! I just want to learn more and more. Thanks so much Ken. Your amazing!

Snow for Christchurch

I hope Ken's prediction for snow in Christchurch this winter is correct. I'm not going to jinx it though!! :)

Snow For Christchurch

Well, Ken's prediction for the cold winter in 2010 certainly wasn't even close. You might as well flip a coin.

Maybe he missed the target at

Maybe he missed the target at he meant Invercargill

Hey mate i don't know where

Hey mate i don't know where you was last winter but it was on of the coldest and wetest here in north Canterbury for years

It was true in Southland. The

It was true in Southland. The snow and cold was true down here, just ask all the sheep farmers who lost up to 30% of their income in the September snow (did someone say snow?) storms, and also ask the people who are designing the new Stadium Southland after the old one collapsed due to snow (what, did someone say snow?) on it's roof.

Snow that has not been on the ground in Invercargill since I can remember, so that gets us back to 1974 anyway.

Maybe the Christchurch people should move out till after Anzac Day, just to be on the safe side (a month after March 20 ought to do it).

i remember snow in 1996 that

i remember snow in 1996 that was around for a week or so and have photos of my daughter standing in snow in 2005 it didnt stay but it definitely snowed some

We didn't get snow in chch

We didn't get snow in chch this year. There are many factors to consider when predicting weather and earthquakes. But when you take only a few factors such as the moon, sun planets, there is a fairly good chance of getting the prediction correct. The more factors involved, generally the better the prediction. We didn't have snow this winter in Christchurch because other factors were not considered.

In the NZ almanac Ken has got

In the NZ almanac Ken has got February and March weather very wrong. For February he has got
"The national average temperature to be the lowest for February in about a decade" and "From the 15th snow at Whakapapa Village is expected at 1100m"
No, February was warmer than usual, and no snow anywhere near Whakapapa, it was too warm. And for March, "El Nino southwesterlies resulting in the coldest March in over 50 years". No again, March was warmer than usual. In January Ken said "summer is all but over" but Northland and Auckland had one of the best warmest and longest summers, and it's still pretty good and it's the middle of April.

Ken Ring Q&A

I congratulate you on having a Q&A with Ken Ring and would like to see more of this from him in the future. Maybe you can get him to contribute a quarterly comment on what he thinks the weather will be.

I found it very interesting the discussion Ken had with old Bob of the NZ Metservice.

1939

Ok so this year is meant to be one of the coldest winters on record for New Zealand . Where an how is this accurate information , I mean how does he know that it will be the coldest winter? Please explain would love to know the answer to this thanks .

1939 is back about 4 cycles.

Hi 1939
To answer your question, the moon+sun combined cycle is 36-38 years. Extreme events seem to have an approx 36-yr repeat in the same area. Some examples:
2005 Cyclones Katrina /Rita = 1969 Hurricane Camille = 1933 Chesapeake Bay Disaster
2006: Cyclone Larry = 1970 Cyclone Ada
2006: Cyclone Monica = 1988 Cyclone Bola
2004: Asian tsunami quake = 1968 Huge earthquake 8.3mag Sumatra.
Skip to 36 years ago from 2010/11, to 1974/75, and read New Zealand Journal of Ecology 1; 81-83
“Winter 1974 was unusually wet, winter 1975 was the coldest for many years and summer 1975-76 was wet and unusually cold”.
Now skip back 36 years from 1975 to 1939. In 1939 they recorded snow in Kaitaia and Kaikohe.
I'm not saying this snow will exactly repeat, but only that the trend could be for a rather cold season, and this will vary region to region.

1939

hi ken , a big thankyou to you for your reply . I would be very intersted in knowing more about the winter of 1976 that had it snowing in wellington and in 1983, were they similiar weather events in relation to the moon? i found this the other day in a article on the net very intersting if this storm was to accur again . New Zealand’s worst 20th-century snowstorm
Late July 1939 saw widespread snow when a deep trough lay east of New Zealand, allowing cold south-westerlies to bring Antarctic air over the country. It snowed from Cape Maria van Diemen in the far north to Southland, where flooding occurred when the thaw set in. Dunedin was worst affected. There was snow a metre deep in some of the hill suburbs, which ran short of food. In Auckland on 27 July, 5 centimetres of snow fell on the summit of Mt Eden, and the Bombay Hills shone white for most of the morning.

In Gisborne, snow fell for nearly three hours, and in Masterton, the snow lay 15 centimetres deep. Snow fell to sea level at Castlepoint, and drifts in the hills closed the road inland.

Snow was not the only problem during the devastating cold snap. Overnight frosts caused water pipes to burst in Palmerston North and Hastings. At Paremata, just north of Wellington, eight hectares of the harbour froze over. Tidal waters also froze at Ōpōtiki, in the Bay of Plenty.

so like i was sayin very interesting event cant wait to see if it does accur . An if it does happen i think you should be highly reckonised for it . Is this event meant to happen in June , July or August . Many thanks Daniel

i brought Ken's almanac for

i brought Ken's almanac for 2010 and to date for Northland anyway, his predictions have been right, he has predicted that it will be dry right into June, and then turn cold as well, not a very promising outlook, but given that we are halfway through April and have had the driest 6 months for a long long time (as predicted) i think its time more notice was given to what Ken says

That all sounds wonderful

That all sounds wonderful Ken, apart from on unfortunate truth: it doesn't work. The only way you can keep up (in your own mind) this 85% is by qualifying your forecasts to the point of being meaningless. Days either side of the event, hundreds of kilometres out, not saying what the event is until after it happens. Whenever someone else does a critical analysis of your work, eg here http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.... you score less than climatology, the most basic of forecasts.
But I do actually understand how your method works. First, come up with some pseudoscience that seems plausible on the surface but doesn't stand up to any critical analysis. Second, shamelessly self promote on every medium possible, throw in a bit of conspiracy about the mainstream being against you. You don't need many believers, maybe 1%. 1% of the population of NZ is about 40000 potential sales. You won't sell to all of them, say 10% of that at $70 each is $280,000. Not enough money? Easy fixed, just expand into Australia and Ireland. Combined population of 32 million using the same strike rate gives sales of $2.24 million. If you don't earn that much Ken then I've obviously been very generous with the number of people who believe you. But from those numbers, I can see why you do it...and why you can never admit that it doesn't work.

Gary you are a doormat. Who

Gary you are a doormat. Who sponsors you.

Well done Gary. My thoughts

Well done Gary. My thoughts exactly.

If I wanted to be rich I'd do something else

Hi Gary
Quite honestly if I put in the time into any other endeavour that I put into this work I would be well on the way to a luxury lifestyle. I'm not, and I drive a 1988 vehicle. You forget that farmers, the most cynical group in the country when it comes to buying something, are my main support. They call a spade a spade and would be the last ones on earth to swallow pseudoscience. They don't mess around, and I learn heaps from them, which I add to the method.
As to the link you gave, that anti-me blog is choc-full of untruths. There seems to be an element in this country that is intolerant of alternative viewpoints. It would be sad if you put yourself in his category.
Appreciate your thoughts.

Which farmers are those?

We are farmers and don't know of any other farmers that rely on your weather predictions.

While I don't have the raw

While I don't have the raw data for that analysis, as a mathematician myself I can't fault it. Comparing your forecast to the average and the actual weather is exactly the way it's supposed to be done. But I understand you prefer the more anecdotal method of forecast verification. So if it's anecdotes you like then how about this: On 29 January when asked when the dry spell in Perth would end (yes that's where I live now), you said this http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/no-rain-until-midfebruary-20100128-n0d....
"thunderstorms in the metropolitan area between February 17 and 20 and "a whole lot" more at the end of the month." Here is the evidence that this did not happen http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201002/html/IDCJDW6111.201002.shtml. Unless "a whole lot more" referred to very high evaporation rates. The real end to the dry spell was the big storms of the 22 March, which you later claimed to have forecast. Why, when you were specifically asked, did you not mention the storms of 22 March on the radio? You get away with this Ken only because of lazy journalism, 6PR should have followed up on it.
Now I'm prepared to leave you alone Ken, I think I've done enough buyer beware community service announcements. But I want you to do one thing for me. Admit you got the Perth forecast wrong. It's not hard, just cut and paste this "I got the Perth forecast wrong".

Evidence says storms

Well, I still don't know if I did, and you haven't put up anything that says no thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are mostly noise with very little actual rain. So I suggest it's not proof putting up rain stats. Now I just looked up what I could. Seems there WERE thunderstorms between 17-20. On 17 Feb, on Laurier Williams' site, Australian Weather News, you can read "..WA: Thunderstorms signal end of the Dry". And for the 26th, on the ABC News website, "Patchy cloud over southeastern and western parts of WA, in trough, is generating isolated showers and storms." and on the 27th "Perth: windy". Thunderstorms mentioned further north, however don't know if exactly in Perth, but definitely seem to have been in the region. (Remember thunderstorms cover a very wide area).
As for March, I see I had storms in Perth on 19th, (p62 of my Australian almanac), and on 24th (p134). These seem to be in the time frame you suggest.
Thank you for your posts.

You really do struggle with

You really do struggle with reality don't you Ken. There's so much wrong with what you said I don't know where to start. Perhaps with your childish attempt to make up a headline. Here is the summary for Feb 2010 http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2010/00news2010headlines.shtml
The only WA mention is "WA: Pilbara bushfire continues". But thanks for the site, here is the State rainfall for 24 hours to 9am on 18th
http://www.australianweathernews.com/archives/rainfall/totals/day/201002...
Anyone interested can check 19th and 20th too. Nothing anywhere near Perth.
But the original question posed to you from the radio station was about the end of the dry spell in Perth. That's rain hitting the ground in Perth, not thunderstorms 1000+km away. You said 17-20 Feb, didn't happen, not even close. Therefore you are wrong.
As for the 22 March, you chose pretty much every day except the one it occurred on. And how many missed attempts were there before that? Useless for anyone doing forward planning.
I think my original assertion that you can never admit that you are wrong is correct. Why don't you just say you get it 100% correct, it's just as believable as the 85% fairytale.

You can't argue with evidence

I had a radio prediction for chances of rain in the SW of WA on the 17-19th, and I was quoting from p115 of my almanac. I see it fell around the Jerramungup around 17th. See for yourself
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/daily/colour/hist...
(Geographical error is always about 100m radius).
In March I said Perth would get no rain until 21st (p142 of almanac). And in fact it was bone dry until the 23rd. Given my 1-3 day error that was a 100% accurate. See for yourself
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201003/html/IDCJDW6111.201003.shtml
That's the reality, you can't argue with the evidence!
But I really must query your sense of balance? Do you write similar letters to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology? You should - on March 11 they said "Relief is on the way however with significant rainfall forecast for the Perth region. A cold front will approach over the coming days with a cool change predicted to deliver much wanted rain for the Perth region late on Saturday(13th)". That came and went. Here it is
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/daily/colour/hist...
Guess what - bone dry. Perth's first March rain was within 2 days of when I predicted. And it was a whopping 40mm. Yet the BoM didn't see it coming even 5 days away! I saw it coming two years away. Two days before that 40mm fall they said "10 to 15mm could fall over the next few days"(reporter Martin Palmer). They've got all the gear, the multimillion dollar satellites and all. Is that all they could come up with? But you won't be writing to them any time soon because it's easier to pick on the little guy.

Read your radio interview

Read your radio interview again http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/no-rain-until-midfebruary-20100128-n0d.... "Thunderstorms IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA between February 17 and 20 and "a whole lot" more at the end of the month". Didn't happen, it's wrong. Jerramungup is 197 nautical miles southeast of Perth. (197 is a bigger number than 100).
We're talking about your forecasts not BoM's. I know this is typical of your technique, when caught with an obviously wrong forecast you try and deflect criticism onto someone else. Never mind them, you were wrong.
If you can't admit to being wrong even on this occasion when you are so so far off, how can anyone trust you when you claim to get 85% correct.

who cares?

who cares if ken is wrong or right? im a 22 year old mum, i watch the weather forecast on the news at night, and its not always right! some people just want to argue with anything that is different to them,i think thats an immature and rather sad outlook on life, if you dont agree with something just ignore it, u dont need to butt in and upset everyone! anyway, thanks for the FREE book Ken, i know alot of people found it very interesting!!

Again you're not being fair.

Again you're not being fair. Yes, the rain fell further east than Perth for the 17th than I calculated, but it was still in the SW. I should at least get a point for that. But the March prediction for Perth was glaringly precise, from two years away, vs that of the BoM who missed it from 5 days away. I not only got the dry spell for the first 20 days of March, and then the rain date, but I nailed it to within 2 days! How come you ignore that? If you look for fault you'll always find it somewhere.
You seem to forget that longrange forecasting is about trends, to within a week or so, and to a general area, quite wide geographically. Trying to focus me into the same preciseness as the BoM does, down to the wire, is futile as I do not have their technology. Often they can't even do it themselves as I have demonstrated, they underestimate or miss it completely. So what? At least they give it a good go. Perhaps also you need to be aware that weather is not an exact science. What forecasters (and I) do is offer opinions about outcomes and expectancies. Anyone else is free to come up with another opinion. I never claim to 100%, as about 80-85% is what others seem to give my method. So that's two months less correct per year. All I am trying to supply is something useful overall. Of course there will be dates I don't get occasionally.

"Yes, the rain fell further

"Yes, the rain fell further east than Perth for the 17th than I calculated..." yay!! I'll take that an admission of an incorrect forecast, well done Ken. See that didn't hurt did it? Now if you could just apply that same critical eye to the rest of your forecasts, you may see what the rest of us see. I'll tell you what, I'll give you credit for being a prolific forecaster, if not a particularly accurate one.
Good luck Ken.

Gary, you need to just pull your head in

Seriously. You're trying to be specific to discredit for the sake of discrediting, to be pompous and try to prove superiority.
When you think about it, Ken's NEVER had to claim 100% accuracy, and not tried from what I can see. And I've never had 100% accurate weather from a Metservice either, whom we're supposed to trust.
Methinks you are what we in IT arenas call a "troll", and a waste of everyone's time. Arguing a non-existant point to try and prove your non-existant superiority just makes you look more the fool.