As many know this large low in the Tasman Sea is with parts of New Zealand until about Monday. So what is happening over the next few days?

Today the rain bands will start to break up – but at the same time other areas will still flare up.

It’s a complicated set up but latest guidance shows rain off and on this morning, with a mix of ‘normal’ and heavy falls. The rain clouds break up further this afternoon and gradually clear tonight for many, but not all. You can thank a large high in the South Island for helping push this rain back out to sea later today or tonight.

However on Thursday the rain will be hovering just north of the North Island, possibly not clearing all of Northland or Coromandel Peninsula – then sliding back into the upper North Island across Thursday as the high and low pressure systems work together to create a ‘wet nor’easter’ from Waikato and BOP northwards.

This rain could again become heavy and is worth monitoring – especially Coromandel Peninsula.  However it may then clear yet again overnight for a time.

There is a real ‘hit and miss’ nature to this set up. Much of Northland and a big chunk of Auckland didn’t get flooding rains – but those parts of Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula that were hit by floods had over a months worth of rain in the past 24 hours or so.  These localised downpours are typical with a sub-tropical event like this.

More rain is expected in these regions on Friday, with heavy showers likely over the weekend. Gisborne and East Cape are likely to get heavy rain too this weekend.

Keep an eye on our rain maps for the latest movements on this forecast. It is changing a bit each day as is the nature of a big system like this.

Despite the deluge, many farmers and growers are very happy to have tanks full, gardens watered and farms greening up. However it’s been too much of a good thing for some farmers, as flood waters overtake their properties in some parts of the upper North Island.

– Image / Lunchtime Thursday shows rain sinking back over the upper North Island / weathermap, GFS

– WeatherWatch.co.nz