Weather Video: Cyclone Gita’s precise track to NZ still not locked in

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita is closing in on eastern New Caledonia then it will move out into the Tasman Sea this weekend before curving around to New Zealand next week.

The storm will likely bring rain heavy enough for flooding in the New Zealand area but the computer modelling still isn’t on the same page about timing, exact location and intensity.

Cyclone Gita currently Category 5, to likely make landfall in NZ next week

Updated: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita remains Category 5 status as of 4pm today over warm ocean waters 1800kms north of Auckland, New Zealand. The Fiji MetService confirmed this in their 3pm advisory, saying the air pressure is at 928hPa, tracking west at 9 knots.

Weather Video: Cyclone Gita likely to make landfall in NZ next week

The forecasters and computer models are increasingly lining up and in agreement that next week Cyclone Gita will make a direct hit on New Zealand as a wind and rain event bringing a risk of flooding and wind damage.

Northern NZ feels like the tropics + Cyclone Gita's possible future track (+10 maps)

The upper North Island is officially wetter than it should be for this time of the year (no kidding!) as humidity up to 100% along with heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms continues today and to a lesser degree on Wednesday.

Water vapour satellite maps show the exceptionally damp airflow connecting to the tropics and even around the area Cyclone Gita is in.

Powerful Gita crosses southern Tonga, now out to open waters and later the Tasman Sea

Powerful Cyclone Gita is now starting to move away from Tonga after a night of ferocious weather with winds estimated to be sustained at 230km/h and gusts to 280km/h at the centre of the storm and huge seas creating waves over 11 metres.

Weather Video: Severe Cyclone Gita aims for Tonga + NZ’s outlook to Saturday

Category 4 and possibly soon Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Gita is today and tonight heading to Tonga. It is expected to pass directly over the main island and capital, or at least brush the tiny island with the storm’s full force.

How much rain will you get this weekend? The latest rainfall estimates (+4 Maps)

The low this weekend north west of New Zealand is large but weak and it's tapping into moisture rich sub-tropical air. A blocking high pressure system to the east of the country is slowing down these rain bands.

Here's the latest outlook by our meteorologists at the Weather Company showing forecast rainfall accumulations in 12 hour segments for New Zealand.

Sub-tropics about to bring days of rain to some parts of New Zealand (+5 Maps)

Filed in:

A low just north west of New Zealand is slowly moving southward, bringing locally heavy rain to the country this weekend.

Northern parts of the North Island will be under the influence of the low pressure system for a number of days and rain accumulation will continue and increase through this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone to form north east of NZ, may drift our way (+2 Maps)

Filed in:

As many of you have been seeing for a number of days now in long range models a tropical cyclone is expected to form in the next day or so in the Fiji / Tonga area. According to reliable computer modelling the storm will intensify as it drifts westwards and may become 'severe' in the tropics - then starts to curve southwards by next Friday/Saturday (+/- a day).

Weekend low to bring rain & wind (+Maps)

Filed in:

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is expected to have migrated eastward, crossing over the South Island for the next two or three days.