Weather Forecast for Rotorua


Rotorua Summary

Generally clear.

Forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Now

9°c

Observed at 10:22am from:
GLENHOLME (IROTORUA23)

Rain (today)0mm
WindSSE 0km/h
Humidex (Beta)8°c
Humidity73%
Pressure1019.44hPa

Current conditions by The Weather Company

Today

12°c
Generally clear.
Rain (chance)0%
WindSW 7km/h
UV Index2 (Low)
Sunrise7:30am
Sunset5:01pm

Computer generated forecast by The Weather Company

Tonight

1°c
Generally clear.
Rain (chance)10%
WindSSE 8km/h
Moonrise5:47pm
Moonset7:53am
Moon PhaseFull

Computer generated forecast by The Weather Company

Next 24 Hours

11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
0%
chance
of rain
0%
chance
of rain
0%
chance
of rain
0%
chance
of rain
0%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
SW
8km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
7km/hr
SSW
7km/hr
SSW
7km/hr
SW
6km/hr
SW
5km/hr
SW
5km/hr
SSW
5km/hr
S
6km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Next 9 Days

Wed 19 Jun
12°c
0°c
Generally clear.
SE
7km/hr
10%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
2%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
1%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SE
7km/hr
SE
7km/hr
SE
6km/hr
ESE
6km/hr
ESE
6km/hr
E
5km/hr
E
4km/hr
E
4km/hr
ESE
4km/hr
ESE
5km/hr
ESE
5km/hr
ESE
5km/hr
ESE
5km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Thu 20 Jun
11°c
8°c
Afternoon showers.
ENE
13km/hr
60%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
8%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
43%
chance
of rain
50%
chance
of rain
60%
chance
of rain
70%
chance
of rain
75%
chance
of rain
77%
chance
of rain
75%
chance
of rain
78%
chance
of rain
SE
5km/hr
SE
5km/hr
SE
6km/hr
SE
5km/hr
SE
5km/hr
SE
5km/hr
SE
5km/hr
SE
5km/hr
ESE
5km/hr
ESE
6km/hr
E
7km/hr
ENE
10km/hr
ENE
12km/hr
NE
13km/hr
NE
13km/hr
NE
14km/hr
NE
12km/hr
NE
12km/hr
NE
12km/hr
NE
13km/hr
NE
13km/hr
NE
14km/hr
NE
14km/hr
NE
14km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Fri 21 Jun
14°c
5°c
Rain.
NW
11km/hr
80%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
85%
chance
of rain
87%
chance
of rain
86%
chance
of rain
89%
chance
of rain
85%
chance
of rain
77%
chance
of rain
78%
chance
of rain
77%
chance
of rain
68%
chance
of rain
59%
chance
of rain
61%
chance
of rain
50%
chance
of rain
50%
chance
of rain
49%
chance
of rain
45%
chance
of rain
35%
chance
of rain
36%
chance
of rain
38%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
33%
chance
of rain
23%
chance
of rain
23%
chance
of rain
23%
chance
of rain
NE
14km/hr
NNE
14km/hr
NNE
13km/hr
NNE
13km/hr
NNE
13km/hr
NNE
13km/hr
NNE
12km/hr
NNE
11km/hr
N
10km/hr
N
9km/hr
NNW
9km/hr
NNW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
NW
9km/hr
WNW
8km/hr
WNW
8km/hr
WNW
7km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
6km/hr
W
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Sat 22 Jun
13°c
6°c
Cloudy.
WSW
9km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
32%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
34%
chance
of rain
32%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
5km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
WSW
7km/hr
WSW
8km/hr
WSW
9km/hr
WSW
9km/hr
W
9km/hr
W
9km/hr
W
8km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
6km/hr
W
6km/hr
WNW
5km/hr
WNW
5km/hr
WNW
5km/hr
WNW
5km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Sun 23 Jun
11°c
4°c
Showers.
WSW
9km/hr
50%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
51%
chance
of rain
56%
chance
of rain
58%
chance
of rain
51%
chance
of rain
51%
chance
of rain
51%
chance
of rain
39%
chance
of rain
37%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
45%
chance
of rain
47%
chance
of rain
47%
chance
of rain
46%
chance
of rain
48%
chance
of rain
48%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
31%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
WNW
5km/hr
WNW
5km/hr
W
5km/hr
W
5km/hr
W
5km/hr
W
6km/hr
W
6km/hr
W
6km/hr
W
6km/hr
WSW
6km/hr
W
7km/hr
W
8km/hr
W
9km/hr
W
9km/hr
W
9km/hr
WSW
9km/hr
WSW
9km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SW
8km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Mon 24 Jun
10°c
2°c
Partly cloudy.
S
11km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
21%
chance
of rain
21%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
21%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
10%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
9%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
SSW
9km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
10km/hr
S
10km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
11km/hr
S
10km/hr
S
10km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
9km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Tue 25 Jun
11°c
2°c
Generally clear.
SSE
9km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
11%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
3%
chance
of rain
4%
chance
of rain
5%
chance
of rain
6%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
7%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
S
9km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
9km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
S
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
10km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
S
7km/hr
S
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Wed 26 Jun
10°c
3°c
Partly cloudy.
SSE
9km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
21%
chance
of rain
21%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
24%
chance
of rain
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company

Thu 27 Jun
11°c
4°c
Partly cloudy.
SSE
11km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
The Weather Company
View hourly forecast ▼
12:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:00
PM
11:00
PM
19%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
20%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
12%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
13%
chance
of rain
14%
chance
of rain
15%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
16%
chance
of rain
17%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
18%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
19%
chance
of rain
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
7km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
8km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SSE
10km/hr
SSE
10km/hr
SSE
11km/hr
SSE
11km/hr
SSE
11km/hr
SSE
10km/hr
SSE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SE
9km/hr
SSE
10km/hr

Hourly forecast analysed and prepared by The Weather Company


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Comments

Historical analysis

It would be very interesting to see some analysis on how much more accruate the WW forecasts are compared with Metservice. Is this data being compiled?

did you get it wrong?

the weather looks beautiful today in Pukekohe.

Our forecast is totally

Our forecast is totally accurate so far!  High clouds thickening, winds building, risk of a late shower.

- WW

strong wind?

we are in east auckland and were hoping to be able to put the gazebo have xmas lunch outside. any idea on how bad the wind is going to be? gazebo or no gazebo? cheers

I would be going with no

I would be going with no gazebo personally. Winds will be a bit brisk from the north or northeast.

20 to 25 knot winds which is 37 to 46 kph, gusting 55 kph at times. Of course winds will not be gusty all the time and it may drop out now and then, that's the nature of weather though. No doubt it would spring up fairly quickly again though.

Cheers
Aaron
 

Winds are SE today.

Winds are SE today.

Correct. Person above was

Correct.

Person above was asking about xmas day.

Cheers
Aaron

flying from auckland to aussie on monday (christmas eve)

My parents have a flight booked to Australia on christmas eve, from the auckland airport. My daughter will be flying over with them. What is your opinion on international flights from auckland with cyclone evan looming? I understand that Airports have the final say on flights whatever the conditions, but I would rather know what advice they have gotten or are likely to get from an actual weather forecaster. hope that makes sense?

oh and merry christmas! :) I love that your page is interactive, I've been looking up weather forecasts all night, and I find your page to be the most accurate and user friendly I've come across so far. thanks for that :)

They don't get that

They don't get that information from us. They would be getting it from Metservice's aviation forecasting division.

Either way even though it will be a bit windy with gusty easterlies things should be operating as normal I would imagine. Just a windy day. And this system is no longer a tropical cyclone, just a tropical low.

Thanks for the comments and merry xmas to yourself also! :D

Cheers
WW

Its an extra tropical low now

Its an extra tropical low now,also a cutoff low.

Rain

If the rain radars are right there is a decent amount coming for auckland and northland

Perhaps for eastern areas

Perhaps for eastern areas like the Coromandel and eastern Northland, Auckland may remain largely dry with perhaps a few scattered areas of rain later today. The low still isn't close enough yet really. Monday should see some good rain in Northland with Auckland getting some too but not as bad.

Cheers
Aaron

Daylight

What time does it become light before sunrise?

I'm not sure exactly, sort've

I'm not sure exactly, sort've like twilight I guess your reffering to?

Here's some reading for you! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight

Seems it could vary depending where you are in the world, I'm not sure how long it would be for Auckland or here in Chch for that matter, I'm never up early enough to find out :D

Cheers
Aaron

 

Just Wondering

Hi there :)
I was just wondering, why isn't Evan a tropical cyclone still? Isn't it generally as a cyclone moves over warmer waters, it gains energy and becomes stronger? Is the water between New Zealand and Fiji not warm enough?

Anyway Merry Christmas. I find your weather forecasts very accurate.

Correct. The water between

Correct. The water between Fiji and NZ is still too cool at this time of year to support it as a TC all the way from Fiji to the tip of NZ so it loses strength and is now a tropical low.

Merry xmas to yourself also and thankyou very much!

Cheers
WW

Auckland

Wow weatherwatch changes the forecasts so often at the moment.why is this?find it hard to plan

Hi there.  As we've been

Hi there.  As we've been saying in every single news update and interview for the past 2 weeks almost, any tropical storm adds massive amounts of uncertainty to a forecast - especially an ex-cyclone that is fizzling out right over the top of us.  The computer models are flip flopping wildly and it's our job to try and find the middle ground or most likely ground - and we have all been working extra hours (and a lot of extra stress!) just trying to keep on top of the massive uncertainty around this low.

I don't believe our forecasts have changed a great deal - the icons may have but the forecasts have been fairly consistent for a few days now that Monday had the highest rain risks and that Tuesday will be very humid with only moderate rain/shower risks.  The following days have barely changed.   You need to appreciate the huge difficulty of predicting tropical storms, if you think our forecasts have changed you should take a look at the numerous other weather websites for NZ - they have gone from sun to rain back to sun back to rain every 6 to 12 hours!  Others are predicting rain almost nonstop all next week.

Add to that the recent data updates in the past half hour now show almost no rain for Auckland on Tuesday and only moderate risks on Monday. 

Understand the frustration, but it's the reality of having an ex-tropical cyclone in the picture and forecasters even at the Weather Channel in the US have the exact same problems with tropical storms - and that's with billions of dollars of research!

- PD

A tough job!!!!

What can one say..... Ya job ain't easy. I have been watching very close all the forecasts that the different agencies put on the table and I think weather watch is the closest to the mark.

In my humble opinion my thoughts for Xmas day are ( and I'm hosting 20 family members on the 25th- indoors will be cosy, outdoors is what I'm hoping for).

- Fine weather in the Auckland region, or the Mayans got it wrong by 4 days.....

Seriously, humid, overcast, but fortunately not bucking down with rain, so I can entertain outdoors on Xmas day.

merry Xmas to all, and to you guys at weather watch. ( you need some kind of App for 2013)......

I like Christmas day... 50%

I like Christmas day... 50% chance of a chance!!

I know it's really early but how is the week after next shaping up for the Upper North Island - off caravanning in Mangawhai and hoping for better weather than last year!!

An annoying typo that popped

An annoying typo that popped up yesterday too - gone now, for GOOD!  Sorry about that :)

As for next week, still a bit of uncertainty - your best bet is to keep an eye on our rain maps (top of the site) as they go out 2 weeks and give you a much better understanding of the rain risks (ie, you can see if any predicted rain is related to a big storm or just a low shower risk).  Think there will be some great camping weather this summer but a few wet days in the mix over the next 2 weeks ahead.

Cheers

PD

Rain for the next week?

Hi there

Is it as dire as it looks with the rest of the year forecasted for rain, rain and more rain?

Thanks :-)

Cloudy spells with the risk

Cloudy spells with the risk of a shower (around 20 to 40% most days).  Not solid rain every day though.  Quite often in summer showers  are much drier than in winter - in other words, when showers are predicted on a day in summer it's quite often shorter lived than in winter which tends to see a lot more of the wet stuff

- WW

Confused

Hi there!
I'm a little confused because TVNZ and Metservice are saying there are severe weather warnings for Auckland because of Evan. But on here, you guys have now said that Auckland may not be hit at all.
Help?

Merry Christmas however :)

There are no warnings for Auckland

MetService has a watch in effect for Auckland, Northland and a few other areas about the north and east of the NI.

This can often trip up people up, but there is a big difference between the two terms.  A "watch" means that conditions are favourable for the development of severe weather.  A "warning" means it is actually happening or is immnent.

However, MetService appears to be forecasting a greater likelihood of severe weather for Auckland than we are.  It's simply a difference in forecasters, models, etc.  They see it unfolding a bit different than we do.

We believe that the majority of the heavy rain and severe gales will stay north of Auckland, if they hit New Zealand at all.

Cheers
Howard

Hi there - there is certainly

Hi there - there is certainly a risk for torrential rain in Auckland due to Evan - but just because there is a risk doesn't mean it is certain.  MetService has sadly confused the message a bit lately between what warnings and what watches are.  Watches - like we have now - mean that severe weather is possible or even likely but not guaranteed.  All the models and data we've looked at shows definitely some very heavy tropical rain around Auckland and the Upper North Island - but it's fragmented and broken up, which means not a solid 3 days of rain coming in, but more like certain parts within certain regions could have rain for several hours while nearby it's drizzly cloudy and dry.  Very complicated!

WeatherWatch.co.nz has been giving the public a 'heads up' about Evan for almost 2 weeks now - and continue to do so.  But we are currently holding back from going to the next level for Auckland.  

There is currently no severe warning for Auckland - but this may change. As of 11:44am Saturday MetService had no official weather warnings in force.  They are more likely on Sunday. Auckland, in our view, is low to moderate risk - maybe 30 to 40% chance of flooding rains for Auckland.  High enough to make us monitor extremely closely, but not high enough to be canging our forecasts - at this stage. 

Everyone in the upper North Island should be checking the latest weather news, forecasts and severe weather outlooks closely across Saturday, Sunday and especially late Sunday and Monday but hopefully Evan will just be a giant watering can for dry gardens and farms!

Finally - we often have different forecasts from MetService - would be a bit pointless if we offered the same predictions each day, which is what most of the media outlets do (most of the media run MetService forecasts).  That's why we offer another point of view. Up to the public to work out which is more reliable in the long run.  Hopefully us!

Cheers

Philip Duncan - oh and Merry Christmas to you too!

Merry Christmas

to all the team at weather watch, have a safe and enjoyable day, thankyou for all the great forecasting you have given us this year. Here's to a awesome New Year, and more great weather to come .... :)

Thankyou very much, is

Thankyou very much, is appreciated heaps here by the team.

Wishing youreself the best also in the coming days and year ahead :)

Cheers
WW Team

Hi WW, Love all you are

Hi WW,

Love all you are doing, just a quick question. On the official xmas day forecast Auckland is predicted to be 24-27 degrees but on the Auckland 6 day forecast its predicted to be 22?

Which on do you think itll be?

:)

The Christmas Day temperature

The Christmas Day temperature above is now up in that range too. It will more than likely be warm and quite humid.

Thanks for the support, Merry xmas!

Aaron

Thanks so much Aaron! 25

Thanks so much Aaron! 25 degrees and humid for Christmas day sounds pretty good to me.

Merry Christmas :)

so nice to see a 50% chance

so nice to see a 50% chance of a chance on Christmas day :) unusual typo...

Keep up your good work guys.
have a good christmas and a great new year...

Haha - yes that certainly

Haha - yes that certainly shows how uncertain Evan is making things!  Typo fixed - thanks for your support - have a great Christmas yourself.

Cheers

Phil

Possitve ourlook

I noticed that all the other forecasters are forecasting rain from Sunday onwards but yet weatherwatch is forecasting a much brighter out look, how certain are you guys with this outlook? It's important for me in getting all my work done before Christmas.
Thanks

Simon

We don't believe there will

We don't believe there will be several solid days of rain - most likely a 12 hour period of rain, with showers/cloud/drizzle around it.  In fact our data this morning has just 30% confidence of rainon both Sunday and Monday and 40% for Xmas Day.  However our rain maps show heavy rain in the area.

Your best bet is to look at our forecasts, look at the other forecasters and use our predictive rain maps - it's going to be a fine line between a very wet day and mostly dry, humid, one.  Sorry I can't be more concrete but these tropical lows make things a little more complicated.

- Philip Duncan

So different to met

I hope your forecast is right because according to met it will be raining for 8 days solid up north.

If it rains for 8 days

If it rains for 8 days solidly up north I will eat my hat  - certainly cloudy weather and a couple wet days, but most days only have a low risk of a shower or two - not rain or overly wet weather.  Sun, Mon, Tues look to be the wettest with just a 20-30% chance of rain for all the other days next week.

Philip Duncan

24 and 25th!

Hi,
Please tell me a positive forecast for Omaha on 24 and 25th!

As is above at this point in

As is above at this point in time. I realise Omaha is a little further north then Auckland but considering it is 4 or 5 days out one has to be a litlte more general when forecasting so the above will apply for you.

Also feel free to browse through the maps with the clickable links above.

Hopefully things work out positively for you but with ex TC Evan it has made things a little difficuilt.

Cheers
Aaron

Hi WW - you might want to

Hi WW - you might want to check the Palmerston North six day forecast - it has Saturday showing twice. It would also be great to have a fine Palmerston North Christmas day for this Aucklander!

Hi there Apart from Chch,

Hi there

Apart from Chch, Hamilton and Auckland the other centres are computer generated. Occasionally there can be a glitch where some days show up twice but hopefully at some point soon we'll iron out these issues.

As for an actual forecast for Palmy, Christmas Day at this stage is looking pretty good. Very warm, almost hot even with temperatures in the high 20's (low chance of early 30's). Light northerlies with mostly sunny skies and some cloud at times. It will likely be very humid also, which does lead to a risk of a late afternoon shower or two.

Cheers
Aaron
 

Paihia trip 25-28 dec

Hi There,

We are planning a trip to Pahia ( up north) during 25-28 dec 2012, how would be the weather during that time, is it okay to go as some of websites like metservice showing rain .

Hi there - use our Maps link

Hi there - use our Maps link at the top of the page - you can track the rain bands for yourself and match them up to what MetService is saying.  We think there should be plenty of dry weather about after Boxing Day for the BOI, risk of a few showers here and there but becoming mostly dry.

Cheers
WW

Flight delay

Will all the flight delay on Sunday?

Hi there - we doubt there

Hi there - we doubt there will be any significant flight problems, however some regional flights may be affected in places like Gisborne.  Auckland Airport is unlikely to be affected in any real way.

Cheers

Phil

Saturday

Hi Folks,

Saturday forecast has been changing quite a lot, and very weather website has a different forecast. However I have always believed that WW has way better prediction than others, do you guys reckon it would rain all day on Saturday or just around evening? Thanks

Hi there - more and more

Hi there - more and more Saturday is looking dry - and Sunday and Monday are only borderline for Auckland - with the bulk of the rain expected to be to the east.  Heavy rain is possible with the centre of Evan passing over around Monday/Tuesday - so keep checking the forecasts, they will change a bit more probably, but Saturday is looking mostly dry all day, slight risk of showers at night.

Cheers
Phil

Evan

Are we still looking at getting some rain from Evan? looking at your forecast for the weekend and monday not so sure anymore? some rain would be nice on the farm in South Auckland, Cheers keep up the good work.

Auckland forecast

hi guys,

Your forecast today for Friday and Saturday looks good. Are you seeing it will not change ( for worst ) as we are planning to go up to Auckland?

Thanks

Forecast Accuracy

Hi guys good work you are the only site showing fog this morning.