Your official 2018 Christmas Forecast! (+Maps for Dec 25th)

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 19/12/2018 - 11:24

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*UPDATED Wednesday **BOOKMARK THIS PAGE FOR DAILY UPDATES**

It's the countdown to Christmas Day! Here's the latest WeatherWatch.co.nz forecast for New Zealand on December 25th.

This is our first main Christmas Day forecast for 2018 and the forecast is looking positive for many places but we do one area of concern to monitor. The main theme is that high pressure is building from Australia and the Tasman Sea and this bodes well for warm, dry, weather. But, it wouldn't be a typical New Zealand forecast if we weren't monitoring something that could throw the forecast out, so here is the main areas of concern.

1) Despite the building high from the west next week, there is a fair bit of sub-tropical energy to our north and some computer models suggest a low will form north west of NZ on Christmas Eve. Other models show a low tracking past the upper North Island on Boxing Day. The models have been off and on about this brushing NZ or not, but the latest data today suggests the high will be the most powerful feature, keeping most of this possible northern rainmaker offshore. For some though, it's pretty 50/50, so check back for our daily updates.

THE XMAS DAY FORECAST:
NORTH ISLAND: Mostly settled over the North Island but an offshore rainmaker may possibly be worth monitoring but hopefully stays offshore. At this stage it may bring rain to BAY OF PLENTY, GISBORNE, EAST CAPE and parts of HAWKE'S BAY on Christmas Day. At the same time, high pressure builds from the west. Winds are light for most, perhaps picking up slowly in Wellington from the north to north west. Most other places look dry but showers are possible in NORTHLAND and AUCKLAND and WAIKATO due to the 50/50 nature of the offshore low.

SOUTH ISLAND: Rain possible in Fiordland, cloudy at times in Southland, but dry elsewhere with mainly sunny weather, especially in the east.

Daytime Temps: 23 to 26

WHAT THE TWO MAIN GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR MIDDAY DECEMBER 25th:

GFS (American)