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Sub-tropical low on track – rain may be patchy

Monday and Tuesday are both shaping up to be wet days across many parts of New Zealand predicts, as a sub-tropical low drifts south towards the country.

The low, which is yet to even show up on the weather maps, will head south this weekend, deepening as it does so. Two days ago head weather analyst Philip Duncan said rain warnings were “likely”, especially in the north and west of both islands – but he also stressed that some farmers may not get relief.

“Some forecasters and media are saying this will end the droughts.  That’s certainly a possibility, but it should also be stressed this is by no means ‘locked in’.  In fact, we believe some farms will miss out on rain heavy enough to reverse their localised dry conditions”.

Mr Duncan says those regions are likely to be eastern and inland areas.

“We still believe this low will bring rain or showers to every region at some point – but having it rain and having a drought fixed are two different things”.

Regions most likely to see drought relief will be northern and western regions of both islands, especially the South Island. says that the international weather models are in agreement on the incoming low.  “This is still shaping up to be a sizeable low – but if it tracks too far south it will be another rain event for the West Coast, which is hardly a news story considering Fiordland is one of the wettest places on earth”.

“It’s tough when these lows come to us from the north – New Zealand is so narrow and has so many ranges it’s very easy for forecasts to change when lows come down from the tropics. so all Kiwis with an interest in the weather should be tracking the daily updates as data becomes clearer”.




sw on 9/04/2013 8:01pm

Models show it moving quick followed yet by another stalled tasman anticyclone and SW flow,hopefully followed by another low follows and gives us a decent NW flow for a change.

peter on 10/04/2013 3:41am

you said on weather watch that the places that get get rain will take the pressure of…..Yeah is $10 to $15 a lamb doing that!!!!!!!!
Peter…..Wheres the rain for the real drought areas like the BOP not the pretenders!

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