VIDEO: Sub-tropical low next week may create severe weather for northern NZ

We are monitoring two lows, the first is a large but stalled low in the Tasman Sea the other is a second possibly more aggressive low early next week in northern NZ.

The Tasman Sea one will bring more heavy rain to the West Coast today and is helping create wintry conditions again around Southland and Otago - until Saturday.

Sub-tropical low next week may bring severe weather (+2 Maps)

Another low that will quickly deepen overnight Sunday and into Monday may bring severe weather to the upper North Island early next week but it's still too early to lock in.

Tasman Sea low draws down cloud over NZ (+7 Maps)

It's more like land of the long grey cloud today as a large low in the Tasman Sea hugs the western South Island and drags down cloud over much of New Zealand.

VIDEO: Two lows and two highs influence NZ’s weather next several days

We have a typical spring forecast where sub-tropical winds blow at one end of NZ while colder Southern Ocean winds push in at the other end.

A large low in the Tasman Sea is feeding heavy rain in to the West Coast while a high near Tasmania will help dredge up colder air for the lower South Island - especially on Friday.

VIDEO: A busy forecast as we track Spring's highs & lows

It’s milder than average in most parts of NZ for the next few days but a colder change is coming back to the lower South Island on Thursday and lingering until Saturday.

Elsewhere sub-tropical winds will push temperatures up for the rest of the week in many areas but varying cloud cover means it may be gloomy for some and not overly warm.

West Coast deluge - Over half a metre of rain coming next few days (+3 Maps)

The West Coast is known for rain events but even this one is significant for them. Latest data still supports around 500 to 600mm of rain falling in some parts between now and just Thursday.

That's over half a metre of rain. says for other NZ regions that is close to around 6 months rainfall in just a few days.

Warm, Warmer, Warmest! Sub-tropical warmth next few days, but wintry snap in tail (+3 Maps)

Tonight may still be a little cold in some regions but the theme over the next few days is to get warmer and warmer as sub-tropical winds kick in - before a late week cool down in the south.

VIDEO: Milder sub-tropical winds for many but a cold change later this week

This week kicks off with high pressure and while a bit cloudy with a few showers for some regions may places will have a fairly mild day.

In fact in the days ahead some places will be several degrees warmer than average thanks to a sub-tropical northerly flow.

Marine: Wave heights next few days as spring systems move through (+4 Maps)

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High pressure is expanding across New Zealand over Sunday and Monday but a developing nor'west flow next week will keep winds blowing through in some areas

Wave heights vary with some of the calmest weather in the north eastern North Island and developing gradually eastern South Island.

Sunday's national forecast - High pressure arrives but some have a cool, cloudy, wet day

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A cold front disintegrates over the upper North Island this morning and as we said the other day it may linger leaving a bit of a cloudy morning with a few light showers and drizzle patches possible.

The front brings some rain to the eastern North Island too, along with a southerly, which clears into the afternoon.