Tropical storm forecast still has a lot of questions, few answers

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Computer models are still developing a tropical low north of New Zealand this weekend.

Where it goes from there, is the big question.

Raindrops or sunshine today?

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Is the high keeping you dry today?

Yesterday, we had a few of you tell us that despite the dry high, raindrops kept falling on your head.

But, unlike the 1970 hit song says, the sun wasn’t sleeping on the job.  Most of New Zealand had a lovely day.

Weekend outlook

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After so many days of dry and settled weather for so much of New Zealand, you would think the other shoe would have to drop at some point…and most likely land squarely on the weekend.

Easter weather hinges on the big low.

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Over the last few weeks we’ve had a lot of people asking about a forecast for Easter.

Now that we are getting a bit closer, it should be a bit easier to produce a forecast that we can have some confidence in.

Note the phrase “should be” in the preceding sentence.

Thursday's national forecast

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High pressure continues to maintain its firm grip on the nation’s weather.

A little bit of an onshore flow may create some light showers for Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.  Otherwise, the rest of the country will be dry and settled.

Tropical storm likely over NZ waters next week (+ Maps)

Computer models are now in agreement that a tropical low will form this weekend about 2000kms north of New Zealand - then it will track towards the North Island, possibly strengthening into a severe tropical cyclone.  However the models still remain unsure about the exact path it will take.

La Nina finally fizzles out

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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued its latest update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tuesday, confirming La Niña conditions are no longer present in either the Pacific Ocean or atmosphere.

Wednesday's national forecast

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Today is the day our Tasman high becomes a Pacific high.

As the high moves across the country, shower chances will shift from the South Island’s West Coast, Southland and Otago regions this morning to the North Island’s Hawkes Bay and Gisborne regions for tonight.

Tuesday's national forecast

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As high pressure continues to move in off the Tasman, New Zealand is looking at another quiet weather day.

Not everyone will see bright sunshine, however.  But the chances for rain will be few.

Tropical trouble brewing

The tropics have been somewhat quiet this year - especially when compared to the dramatic cyclone season last year.  However activity is about to step up with three zones showing signs of life.