Weather Forecast for Auckland


Auckland Summary

Heavy downpours mainly rural areas in the south - dry & mainly clear elsewhere. Showers ease tonight Light easterlies.

Forecast analysed and prepared by WeatherWatch.co.nz

Now5:45pm Thu

18.9°c
Rain (today)5mm
WindESE 13.7km/h
Humidity62%
Pressure1006hPa

Current conditions by Weather Underground

Today

18°c
Heavy downpours mainly rural areas in the south - dry & mainly clear elsewhere. Showers ease tonight Light easterlies.
Rain (chance)30%
WindE 10km/h
Sunrise6:59am
Sunset7:23pm

Forecast analysed and prepared by WeatherWatch.co.nz

Tonight

11°c
Heavy downpours mainly rural areas in the south - dry & mainly clear elsewhere. Showers ease tonight Light easterlies.
Rain (chance)30%
WindENE 15km/h
Moon PhaseWaning Crescent
Moon Illuminated3%

Forecast analysed and prepared by WeatherWatch.co.nz

Next 9 Days

Fri 30 Sep
18°c
13°c
Sunny spells, the odd shower more so afternoon / evening. ENE winds.
ENE
20km/hr
50%
chance
of rain
WeatherWatch.co.nz
Sat 1 Oct
18°c
13°c
Mostly cloudy with the odd shower, many dry spells. Northerly winds.
N
20km/hr
40%
chance
of rain
WeatherWatch.co.nz
Sun 2 Oct
18°c
13°c
Rain develops in the morning then eases afternoon as breezy NW winds change W.
NNW
25km/hr
80%
chance
of rain
WeatherWatch.co.nz
Mon 3 Oct
18°c
11°c
Sunny spells with brisk Sou'West winds, chance of a shower or two otherwise mainly dry.
SW
35km/hr
25%
chance
of rain
WeatherWatch.co.nz
Tue 4 Oct
18°c
14°c
Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon
W
18km/hr
10%
chance
of rain
Weather Underground
Wed 5 Oct
17°c
13°c
A mix of clouds and sun in the morning giving way to a few showers during the afternoon
W
31km/hr
30%
chance
of rain
Weather Underground
Thu 6 Oct
17°c
13°c
Rain likely
WNW
32km/hr
70%
chance
of rain
Weather Underground
Fri 7 Oct
15°c
13°c
Rain showers along with windy conditions
WSW
42km/hr
60%
chance
of rain
Weather Underground
Sat 8 Oct
17°c
12°c
Becoming partly cloudy and windy
WSW
35km/hr
20%
chance
of rain
Weather Underground

Before asking us a Question:

We love to have comments and questions posted here at WeatherWatch.co.nz - but before you ask a long range weather question (ie, beyond our 10 day forecast above) please check our interactive maps page first! This link will take you to our Rain, Wind, Swell, Temperature maps and more - going out 14 days.

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Comments

cricket next weekend

Hi I playing  cricket in 8 october and give me chch no rain. cheers

Hi thereThat's a bit too far

Hi there

That's a bit too far away for us to tell you anything accurate. Feel free to check out our detailed Chch forecasts here:

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/weather-forecasts/christchurch

You can see there what is coming up. Hope your game goes well otherwise!

- WW Team

A few spits of rain

A few spits of rain on SE windows tonight.  A great day of sunshine.

Sundog & cirrus skies a delight to see at days end.

Zelda

Fingers crossed for no fog

Is there any chance of fog Saturday morning Chc airport? Catching flight connecting with international connection so can't have any disruptions

Hi thereActually say yes

Hi there

Actually yes there is a chance, but fog is very difficuilt to forecast and especially looking at it 4 to 5 days away. But a very weak area of low pressure and possible clear skies overnight Friday may lead to some fog on Saturday morning. Feel free to check back if you like and ask again, we won't ever be able to tell you yes definately fog will happen or no it won't happen but we'll be able to say yes a chance exisits etc.... I know it's not a definate answer but best we can manage.

Cheers
WW

Skiing at remarkables

hi,

we have booked skiing at Remarkables & it is for cast showers, what happens at the higher level, does it snow or rain?

regards Paul 

Hi thereThat can depend on

Hi there

That can depend on how cold or warm the atmosphere is, and also what days you've planned to go exactly. If the atmosphere is too warm then it may be raining about the ski field, but if it's cold enough it may snow.

- WW

Skiing this weekend?

Hi there, we have booked to go Skiing Sun/Mon/Tue at Ruapehu.  Looking at Metvuw and your weekend weather forecast, it's not looking great but that area might fall between the Northern low and Southern high.. maybe?  What are your thoughts on the weather on the mountain for those three days please :)

Thanks!

Hi thereCurrently looking a

Hi there

Currently looking a bit wet unfortunately on Sunday and Monday, areas of rain with easterly winds. There is a chance due to the altitude this could be a mix of rain / snow on the skifield itself but it is borderline. Tuesday conditions may dry out a little with some sun breaking through.

Hope your trip goes well either way! Thanks for writing in :)

- WW Team

sunrise / sunset

Hi,

Just wondering why the sunrise / sunset has been taken off from the forecast?

Thanks

Hi thereThanks for writing

Hi there

The Sunrise and Sunset times only show during the daytime forecast - after 6pm each day the night forecast is shown and sunrise/sunset data then disappears. This is due to data limitations but we do have a plan to fix this - as you're not the first to ask, and we'd prefer a smoother service. Hopefully this will be addressed in the near future.

Kind regards

Philip Duncan

Difference in forecasts

Hi - appreciate some help or explanation.  I'm at a complete loss as to Metservice's forecast for the next 3 days for Wellington compared to Weatherwatch and your maps.  Metservice has a watch for severe gales and heavy rain for Wellington and yet looking at your weather forecasts and maps I don't see that - am I missing something?  In fact on Sunday you have showers and southerlies of 20kmh which matches the maps on your site (although the map is showing no rain for Sunday) and yet Metservice has heavy rain at first and strong southerlies.  Over the last months I've noticed that Metservice seems to exaggerate the weather to some extent and that's why I've been coming to your site because it seems to be more comprehensive.  Appreciate any explanation you can give.  I know you don't like to comment on what other weather providers forecast in particular Metservice but I am just curious when I see such a difference in forecasts and Metservice gets very defensive when they're questioned about their forecasts compared to other providers.  Appreciate your response.

Hi thereThanks for writing in

Hi there

Thanks for writing in :)

I wish I could tell you but I just don't know, we don't call them up and discuss the weather or what's going on or how they go about forecasting it, hehe :D

At the end of the day it's up to the public to be aware of these differences if they so choose and see what actually happens when those days comes to pass then you really know what was what and who was right or wrong. Even then weather can be subjective to each individual, to one person a forecast could be right and to another a forecast could of been a little skew-whiff depending on ones perception of an event. The weather itself can be different in different parts of a city so at times half a city may say you got it right then the other half may say you got it wrong.

Beyond all that, our forecast currently is just how we see it in information we look at. Wellington can be fickle when it comes to strong winds in the city itself. Even when everything tells you in model information strong winds should be present, often in heavy cloud situations with rain or showers the winds aren't that bad (in saying that even though the average speed isn't that bad today gusts are reaching to gale at times). But given a break in the cloud or wet weather winds can then ramp up at a moments notice. But then you get situations with cloud, showers and strong winds but not as often although southerlies can certainly pound the capital like that more often then not, the northwest mainly is the more fickle one. It isn't always straight forward.

Sunday we don't see heavy rain in the morning currently but we'll have to keep an eye on things and see how it all unfolds.

Cheers
Aaron

Certainly was heavy rain in

Certainly was heavy rain in Wellington this (ie Sunday) morning.  Flooding, slips etc. 

You got that right, credit to

You got that right, credit to Metservice for picking that one earlier on.

WW

Thanks so much for the

Thanks so much for the detailed response and very informative.  Thanks also for the great service you provide here.

Interestingly showers / rain

Interestingly showers / rain has eased in the city itself and up those wind speeds have gone!

And no worries :)

Cheers
Aaron

Hi there, I travel around a

Hi there,

I travel around a lot for work, often to small towns, and I feel like I have given your forecasts a fair go since you rolled out the larger range of locations in the past year. However, I have found your forecasts for small towns to be very hit and miss - often the forecast is for the completely wrong area!

For example, when you search Palmerston (and I chose Palmerston, not Palmerston North), you get a forecast for Manawatu. When you search Haast, you get a forecast for Central Otago. When you search Waiouru, you get a forecast for Whanganui. Just out of interest (haven't actually been there) I searched Chatham Islands, and it came up with a forecast for Wairarapa!! I am sure there are probably many other geographical errors, as these are just the few that I have found on my travels. I have found MetService's rural forecasts to be much more accurate, as to start with, I can be sure that I am reading a forecast for the correct location. It would be good to see these geographical errors fixed up (and any others), but for now, I will no longer be using your forecasts.

Thanks,

Bill.

Hey Bill - can you please

Hey Bill - can you please Contact us at news@weatherwatch.co.nz - we'd love to reply to you personally to address your legitimate concerns but no email to reply to, we'd love to fix your local data issues.

Kind regards,

Philip Duncan.

Life Educaton Charity Day Ellerslie Auckland Saturday 24 Septemb

Hi Guys

You've been accurately forecasting for our event for the past 13 years!

How are we looking for Ellerslie, for Saturday September 24th!

Cheers

Lance

Hi thereThanks for that!

Hi there

Thanks for that! :)

The 24th is two weeks away so can't really say anything with too much accuracy right now. Currently a front clears in the morning then there is a southerly airflow for the rest of the day. So perhaps some morning rain then sunny spells with cool southerlies. We'll have to see how things are looking in a weeks time :)

- WW Team

Frost

What likelyhood of frost in Hawkes Bay next few days?

Ron

Good morning Ron, yes there

Good morning Ron, yes there is some frost risk both early Sunday morning and early Monday morning - but the risks are not extreme with perhaps a breeze and some cloud cover tonight limiting frost chances, and early on Monday AM a light westerly may start to form and that may also keep air temps above freezing.

We're seeing overnight lows overnight Sunday/Monday AM dropping to 2 or 3 degrees through Hawke's Bay so yes possible, but hopefully a tad too mild on the +0C side of things. 

We are seeing overnight lows drop to Zero inland around the Hawke's Bay Ranges, but towards the coast the overnight lows open out to +2 to +6 degrees. Worth monitoring but hopefully not a very frosty event.

Cheers

WW

Whanganui

Hows things looking for whnagnui

 

Cold! Today you have

Cold! Today you have rain/showers sneaking through Cook Strait and directly into you - go far enough west or east and it's dry again!  Here's our forecast - it's looking better tomorrow and warmer this weekend :) weatherwatch.co.nz/weather-forecasts/wanganui

Fog

is there likely to be fog in Napier on Friday 9/9/16

 

Hi thereNo fog looking very

Hi there

No, fog looking very unlikely on Friday morning, too windy. :)

- WW Team

SNOW?

when is it next going to snow in christchuch!?!? Its been too long!

thanks

Hi thereNot for the

Hi there

Not for the foreseeable future. Keep an eye on our detailed Chch forecasts for upcoming weather :)

- WW Team

Hi - just wondered if the

Hi - just wondered if the people who supply the maps have given you an approximate date when they will be fixed back to the 2 weeks and actually accurate.  Once again they've stopped updating which seems to happen every few days.  Not complaining about your really great website.  Really like being able to look at the maps to get a real idea of the weather but as you know there's been a problem for a while with them.  Appreciate any update.

Hi there, we appreciate the

Hi there, we appreciate the frustration and are looking at alternative soures for 2017. MetOcean has recently stopped providing WeatherWatch.co.nz with the free 14 day maps, so we are in ongoing talks with them about what is available. For now we have 10 days, and we are already working very positively with the US Govt to get back to having 14 day maps.  It's not easy being a small weather business in New Zealand, believe us - never ending trying to just keep current data available.

Apologies for the maps being a bit up and down lately - and we hope to resolve this once and for all as we go into 2017 with the hopes we can provide more alternative mapping to go alongside the MetOcean ones.

Kind regards

WeatherWatch

 

Thanks so much for your reply

Thanks so much for your reply and really appreciate the great services you provide especially as you are small and have no tax payer funding.  Really puts to shame what is provided by the tax payer funded website.

Warm in Northland!!

Hi WW its so warm today in Northland! 22 degrees and only now starting to cloud over.How long wiil it stay this warm??

thanks!

G'day thereFeel free to click

G'day there

Feel free to click on "Kaitaia" on our home page. As you'll note today is quite warm up around 22 degrees as you say, but it looks a little cooler from tomorrow onwards :)

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/weather-forecasts/kaitaia

WW

Weather Underground

according to WU it is 23.7c in Kaitaia this morning :/

We're soon displaying all

We're soon displaying all observations and the weather station it is connected to, it will help us fine tune accuracy too.  Much of Northland in the 18 to 23 degree range at the moment thanks to the sub-tropical airflow moving in today.

Cheers
WW

Thanks, that might help.

Thanks, that might help. Current observations are out of whack. Metservice says 14.8, WU 23.2 at 6.53am for Kaitaia this morning. 

Yep it looks as though the

Yep it looks as though the weather reading nearest you might be an indoor one (annoying!). We've taken a very close look at the entire weather observation network from the WU network and we'd say 80% are bang on, 10% are close enough, and the other 10% are "awful" - and you have one those bad readings sorry. We'll aim to fix it. Your taxes fund the MetService observations and the NIWA ones - NZ is the only country on earth to have two tax funded weather agencies with neither providing any current data to use commercially (again no other country on earth does this). WU is a work around and as we say 80 to 90% is bang on, but the reason Minster Steven Joyce has committed to a formal Government Investigation into NIWA and MetService is simply due to the fact the public observations network they oversee is now 100% controlled by their sales department and therefore WeatherWatch not given data - even though we help fund it like you do. IN fact the CEO of NIWA "refused' under Official Information Act request to deny if he personally gets financial kick backs for using public data this way - and blocking small businesses from using it.

Cheers

WW

Aftershocks - Hamilton

Hello, I live in Hamilton and will be going near the river tonight for an event, should we worry about aftershocks from the early 7.1 earthquake in the north island? I found news about tsunami warning for northeast coasts but other than that, nothing for other places that felt the quake as well..

Hi there, you will be fine in

Hi there, you will be fine in Hamilton - you will unlikely feel any aftershocks today as they should be too small.  Have a good night - hopefully the drizzle clouds stay away :)

- WW

Storms..

When do you think we might get the spring lightning storms..or is that to hard to tell

Oh great question! A lot of

Oh great question! A lot of people (who love weather) look forward to spring for that very reason. At the moment it doesn't look too stormy over the coming 10 days, although there may be some wind and rain on Sunday further south.  The best chance for weather that you ask for is when we have mild weather like many had today followed by a sudden wintry change - or at least a warm/cold mix of air plus some moisture amongst it all. Usually the windiest weather kicks in after the equinox in just over 3 weeks - so October usually has some of the best chances for storms. The weather is warmer than average this year though - and it is changing the norm a little. We'll keep you posted if we see anythig big brewing.

- WW

Thanks

thanks for the reply.. I love rain and storms and lightning..

Golfing Weather

Hi Phillip.....I want to play golf at Kauri Cliffs next week (4th-9th). Which day would be the best? At the moment it looks like rain on Monday.

Thanks

Bruce

 

Hi there Bruce, you're right,

Hi there Bruce, you're right, so at this stage both Tuesday and Wednesday look good, a few showers on Thursday and Friday looks very 50/50, could go wet or dry.

Keep an eye on the % of rain, anything under 20% is usually friendly to golfing and even under 40% can sometimes work :) 

All the best next week.

Phil

Spring

G'day,

Thankyou for your thoughts and views on the coming spring for canterbury.

One final question.

This time last year most if not all nz weather agencies were advising the entire east coast of the Sth island and parts of the nth island to start giving thought to de stocking because of the view of a very dry spring/summer coming. Is that more or less the same view held for this spring/summer or are we hopefully heading for something not quite so severe given the current neutral weather pattern?Appreciate your thoughts.

 

cheers

Hi there - not a problem :)

Hi there - not a problem :) With regards to NZ weather agencies (both of them) yes they warned of big dry weather, they also warned of it for 2 years and most regions weren't so badly impacted. It's a very very hard question to answer - as NZ is so small that one single low or high pressure system can dwarf us and totally reverse whatever pattern is "set in". Neutral patterns (like now) are more chaotic - meaning anything can happen, from the north, east, south and west.   In winter it means we get subtropical weather and antarctic blasts - but in summer things slow down so much that "chaos" isn't quite so chaotic! (if that makes sense!?). Basically, what we're saying is, in summer the chaos factor can be slow so we could have a few weeks of rain and then two months of dry - or the other way around. It's not changing every day or two like it is right now.  If we're heading towards La Nina that might support a few more rain makers in the sub-tropics and Tasman Sea area too this summer (a bit like what we're seeing at the moment).

When the weather agencies make their calls it's important to look at their track record over the past decade (about 50/50), along with the history of where you live - and then take a look at what has been happening recently. All of that info is helpful. We look forward to seeing the tax funded NIWA & MS predictions for summer, but as we do every year we come to our own conclusions and share them with you all. Each forecaster has strengths and weaknesses in every region - but we believe being independent and not just copying and pasting Government forecasts makes us a good place to come for a second opinion, or to double check your own opinions/theories.  

It's this strong Independence that has landed us 3 contracts with the Ministry for Primary Industries over the past five years for drought reporting - which is stunning when you consider 125 million dollars a year of tax funding goes to NIWA and Metservice...so we must be doing something right!

Kind regards

Philip Duncan

Spring weather

G'day Phil,

Do you guys see any clear trends in your opinion developing for Canterbury for the coming spring.

Obviously we are miles and miles behind on our average rainfall and have had an extremely dry winter.

There is varying opinions out there with of some of your rivals saying that we are heading into another drought this spring while others are picking a wetter and cooler spring for Canterbury.

What are your thoughts? 

Be interesting to hear.

cheers

Hi there, thanks for the

Hi there, thanks for the important question. We've been very public about our disagreement with NIWA's winter forecasts for Canterbury, to the point we contacted MPI back in Autumn to say we disagreed with their wet winter forecast. We came to this conclusion not because a computer told us a forecast to read out, but because we looked at the big picture, looked at the pattern over the past 6 months and looked at our forecast for the month ahead. From that we could see the westerly flow continuing over winter which would limit your rainmakers. Unfortunately we still see this westerly flow continuing - and probably enhancing a bit in spring (which is normal). However - we do have some positives: 1) Recent rains have actully boosted some parts of Canterbury back into healthy - it's not for everyone, but it's not as bleak as it was even a month ago - something is better than nothing right?  2) We have a chance of some wet weather over the next few days. 3) The neutral pattern at the moment encourages lows to cross Canterbury bringing in rain or showers.  4) There is some talk of La Nina coming in - but not until next year, and this can bring in wetter NE winds.

With NZ being two small islands in the roaring forties it's hard, perhaps impossible, to lock in a full seasonal forecast with accuracy. The late great Augie Auer said NZ's seasonal forecasts were as accurate as the flip of a coin.

So while not overly positive with plenty of dry weather still coming, it's also not a complete doom and gloom forecast - especially while we remain in a neutral pattern (ie no La Nina or El Nino) and that encourages more chaos - which can give you a better chance of a rain maker in our view.

Sorry we can't be more specific or certain than that at this stage.

Kind regards
Philip Duncan

Saturday

Hi Phil

what is your take on the wind on Saturday in the Coro?

The reason I ask is our friends at MS are saying 5kt variable but all the maps suggest 25kts

That is a big variation for a fisherman

Cheers Dave