IMAGE: Twin severe cyclones north of New Zealand
Posted by wwadmin on Mon, 15/03/2010 - 07:00
Filed in:
Two major tropical cyclones are continuing to intensify north of New Zealand today.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas is expected to hit Fiji today and into Tuesday. Suva may be seriously affected. The huge storm is expected to reach Category 4 status with sustained winds at 200km/h and gusts to 230km/h.
Meanwhile Intense Tropical Cyclone Ului is now a Category 5 cyclone with sustained winds expected to reach an incredible 290km/h with gusts to 350km/h - three and a half times our road speed limit.
Double trouble in the South Pacific - Ului (to the left) and Tomas (to the right). The northern half of New Zealand can be seen centre bottom. Image / MTSAT, NOAA
The severe tropical cyclone is currently brushing the Solomon Islands and is heading into the open waters of the Coral Sea. The warm waters favour yet even more intensification possibly creating the strongest cyclone in our part of the world for many years.
Computer models have, on Sunday afternoon, now started to show signs that Ului may approach northern New Zealand next Sunday or Monday however WeatherWatch.co.nz stresses that is too early to have any solid forecasts.
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says both cyclones are cause for serious concern across the South Pacific and have the potential for loss of life in Fiji, the Solomons and potentially north eastern Australia and New Caledonia.
Mr Duncan says phenomenal seas are likely in the Coral Sea as the air pressure of Ului dropped to just 930hPa overnight and hurricane force winds strengthen further. "A major storm in New Zealand would see the air pressure around 975 to 980 hectopascals (hPa), so to see the air pressure so low, at 930hPa, gives you an idea as to just how extremely dangerous this storm is".
WeatherWatch.co.nz will have extensive coverage of both cyclones across the week.
Comments
Cruising to New Caledonia
Hi,
I'm cruising to New Caledonia on Saturday, leaving Sydney with P&O. What are the chances of us sailing into horrific weather. We are all quite worried.
It's certainly unfortauntely
It's certainly unfortauntely timing... it's possible the sailing may be delayed by a day or so until the storm passes. You'd have to check with P&O but the storm is likely to be in that area on that day.
- WeatherWatch
Could Category Five hit NZ?
The more I read the more scared I become. I've convinced myself that both cyclones are going to hit Auckland! Over summer I re-read a couple of great books 'Tracy' and 'Isaac's Storm'. I have a couple of questions. I know it's too early to say if either will have an impact on New Zealand but you say Ului may affect northern NZ. Does this mean it could potentially stay a Category Five cyclone if it hit here? And secondly, if both are moving in opposite directions does this mean Ului is tracking to the south-west and Tomas to the south-east? I thought cyclones travel in the same direction? I guess time will tell, but I am really nervous..
Hi Sandra, No the chances of
Hi Sandra,
No the chances of a storm with a Category 5 status hitting New Zealand is probably almost impossible as we're just in the wrong position. We're too far south for tropical cyclones and too far north for the deep lows that circle Antarctica. Even the massive Wahine storm didn't produce winds like Tomas (apart from Wellington which had gusts to 275km/h but that was due to the geography of the land and not a direct result of the central air pressure of the low).
Tomas is going to turn southerly (currently moving SW) then south east and out into the open waters far away from NZ. Most we will get may be some bigger seas in the far east coast.
Ului will weaken as it heads down towards New Zealand. We sometimes receive storms (which are no longer cyclones this far south) which have the wind speeds of Cat 2 or 3 cyclones - one brushed Northland in July 2008.
Too early to know what strength Ului will be when it gets here (and thats IF it gets here...still over a week away) but it wont be as intense as it is now.\
Cyclones usually tend to travel westwards (in both hemispheres) but if they track far enough south (or north in northern hemisphere) then they usually turn and move eastwards (south east in southern hem, north east in northern hem).
Don't be nervous...just keep up to date with WeatherWatch.co.nz and if there's any need to be concerned we'll alert you in plenty of time - but at this stage there is no real threat to NZ.
Philip Duncan
Hi Phil, I'm in Nadi.
Hey Phil, just here in Nadi town, preparations are underway for the cyclone. Shops are clearing goods off the floor and some shops have emptied out completely. Westpac and ANZ didn't even open today and put bulletins out on the radio for staff and customers to stay away today. Just stopped into an internet cafe to check the latest weather reports. You can call me on my Fiji cell which is in my out of office reply if you want. Hope you are well. Lala.
Might do that tonight or
Might do that tonight or tomorrow morning - good to have an eyewitness account!
Let us know what conditions are like later.
Go have a drink at the bar :-)
Phil
hi just wondering what (hpa)
hi just wondering what (hpa) cyclone bola was?
cheers karl
At its peak Bola reached
At its peak Bola reached 940hPa... however in NZ the storm had 'filled in' a great deal. The problem with Bola in NZ was the rain...the system merged with a stationary system over NZ and so a tonne of rain was released - almost 1 metre of rain over the Gisborne ranges.
- WeatherWatch
Gold Coast
We're heading to the gold coast on Saturday morning, do you think it will affect that region?
May well affect the Gold
May well affect the Gold Coast - the storm is predicted to brush the region this weekend... however it's very unclear how close to the coast Ului will get.
- WeatherWatch
Saturday
Hi I was wondering if you could tell me at this point whether we will be getting any bad weather on the North Shore on Sat? We are getting married at long bay and are a bit concerned about the cyclone?
Thanks
Hi, the cyclone won't be
Hi, the cyclone won't be affecting New Zealand this Saturday so unless something comes in from the south all should be good for Saturday for your wedding.
Our forecast currently shows a pleasant day with a high around 24 or 25 and light westerlies, a few harmless clouds.
All the best for your big day.
- WeatherWatch
Re
Thank you so much that's a worry off my shoulders! Now we just have to hope that the cyclones in Fiji aren't too destructive as we are due to fly there on Sunday for the honeymoon part! Thanks for updating the website so regularly. :-)
IN Suva
Currently sitting in Suva to a gentle breeze and no rain.............but real warm and the birds have gone quiet....................whatever it is, it's coming,.
Hi Mark - thanks very much
Hi Mark - thanks very much for the update. Keep us posted with conditions there over the next 24 hours.
All the best
- WeatherWatch
Will this hit Auckland/NZ?
What are the chances of these cyclones hitting NZ?
Hi Simon - still very early
Hi Simon - still very early days but we are now seeing indications that Ului may affect northern New Zealand next Wednesday however we only have low confidence of this at this stage.
- WeatherWatch
What are the chances of the
What are the chances of the two cyclones merging to form some kind of mega storm?
Hi Andrew - no chance of this
Hi Andrew - no chance of this happening. The storms are actually quite a long way apart and are both moving in opposite directions.
- WeatherWatch
Thats insane. Is it rare for
Thats insane. Is it rare for there to be two large storms relatively close to each other?
Yes it is fairly rare to see
Yes it is fairly rare to see two such aggressive storms nearby. Quite often, though, when you have the right conditions for a cyclone another one can form very quickly after it. In the Atlantic it's more common when the 'waves' come off the Sahara and into the Atlantic...and you can often have a conveyor belt of storms.
Cheers
Phil.
I like the picture. Looks
I like the picture.
Looks like 2 sinister evil eyes.
JohnGaul
NZThS
I thought they looked like
I thought they looked like something else, but this is a family show lol.
hehe Ryan
I got the same first thoughts as you Ryan :P :P