Cyclone Lusi may make landfall over Auckland (+6 maps)


UPDATED 5:39pm Tuesday --- Tropical Cyclone Lusi has been upgraded to a Category 2 cyclone this afternoon near Vanuatu with the Fiji Met Service predicting the storm will intensfy rapidly into a Cat3 storm.

The central air pressure is currently 985hPa and is expected to drop into the 960s range before reaching New Zealand.

Winds are currently averaging around 90km/h at the centre.

Overnight the computer models shifted the predicted path of Lusi closer towards New Zealand with a direct hit to the upper North Island looking increasingly likely for Saturday night.

Current data now suggests the centre of the storm may pass over our largest city, Auckland, overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning - this could also help fuel damaging winds to the eastern Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula, along with Northland and Auckland.

"Lusi looks like it could be a fairly intense storm when it reaches New Zealand this weekend.  The most severe weather will be wrapped around the centre when it rolls in but many North Islanders can expect a windy and wet weekend" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

Rain or showers, along with brisk and strengthening easterlies, will push southwards across much of, if not the entire, North Island.

The exact path of the centre of Lusi is still unknown at this stage for New Zealand but the centre looks likely to cross somewhere around Auckland then will unwind over the North Island on Sunday - with rain easing in the north on Sunday morning.

If the low makes landfall in Auckland it could also lead to coastal storm surge flooding in vlunerable places.

Our updates will continue with multiple daily updates from now until at least Sunday PM.


- WeatherWatch.co.nz


MAPS as of Tuesday PM


Above/Below / JTWC


 

Above / Saturday morning / ECMWF
Below / Saturday morning / MetOcean 


Below / Latest Pacific Islands tracking map for Lusi, courtesy of Fiji Met

- WeatherWatch.co.nz 


Comments

Hiya, will Nelson be

Hiya, will Nelson be allgoods?

Tauranga

Hi could you tell me what the weather in Tauranga like,

Please reply? 

Ferry to BeerFest

I live in Devonport and am supposed to attend the evening session of Beer Fest tomorrow (4-10pm). What are the chances that the ferry service will be cancelled? I'm new to town so do not have experience with whether the ferries are ever cancelled.

HI there - please see the

HI there - please see the lead story on our homepage about travel issues

Cheers
WW 

uh, oh. Flying domestically

uh, oh. Flying domestically on a little turboprop plane from Auckland to Tauranga on Saturday evening. Hope i wont be affected and put on a bus or get stranded in Auckland.

Getting Married Saturday afternoon Kapiti

HI were getting married on Satuday afternoon halfway between Paraparaumu and Waikanae.


Outdoor event - whats the prognosis - windy, rain later in the evening?


Thanks

Hi there - winds will pick up

Hi there - winds will pick up as the day goes on and a chance of some late spits. Hopefully it will be later but it may arrive mid afternoon.  Keep an eye on our Wellington forecast (we're mentioning Kapiti coast at the moment) and the rain and wind maps at the top of the page.

Cheers and all the best for your special day!   Not many NZers get married the day a cyclone is hitting. 

- WW

Cyclone Luci

Hi,


Can i ask if the cyclone will hit Gisborne? Thanks ...

It will brush Gisborne -

It will brush Gisborne - could deliver some heavy rain and gale force winds for a time, but hopefully mostly below damaging threshold. Keep up to date as conditions may change.

- WW

I am flying to auckland on

I am flying to auckland on friday night and then to Singapore Saturday at 1 am. Will I be Ok?

Lusi will very unlikely be

Lusi will very unlikely be impacting international flights on Friday evening/early Sat in Auckland.  So you should be ok - have a good trip :)

- WW

Napier

How hard is this going to hit napier? Or is it even going to hit napier?

Hi there - looks like Napier

Hi there - looks like Napier may not be too badly impacted by this storm at this stage - but things might change if it tracks further east than predicted.  Later on Sunday and early Monday may be stormiest for Hawkes Bay as the low tracks by.  Look at our wind and rain maps for more info.

Cheers
WW 

Flooding in Canterbury

Will the flooding of Christchurch be the convincing factor leading to the population moving from flood plains to Banks Peninsular?

Wellington Lusi

Will Wellington get gale force easterlies on Saturday or just strong winds? A few websites saying different things. 

Hi there - we dont expect

Hi there - we dont expect gales until later in the day or overnight.  The risk is higher for Kapiti Coast.  Keep an eye on our wind maps in the MAPS tab at the top of the page, it gives a much clearer picture as to winds.

Cheers
WW 

Lusi

Any idea of a time frame this will actually hit North Auckland - have been told  around 7am sunday which is close to the top of the tide.

Hi there - could be anywhere

Hi there - could be anywhere from late Saturday evening in Northland to very early Sunday morning for Auckland. 

Cheers
WW 

flying

We are flying out of Auckland on sat night at 8pm to Samoa is this likely to still happen with the weather predictions??

HI there - no one will be

HI there - no one will be able to make that call until Saturday evening sorry. So check with the airlines/airports and our forecasts across Saturday. Hopefully all will be ok for international flights but it depends on the weather conditions at the airport at the time of departure usually.

Cheers
WW 

Market in St Heliers Bay on Sat 15th Mar, 10am-2pm

We run the St Heliers Bay Artisan Craft & Gourmet Food market and our upcoming market is this Saturday between 10am-2pm. However we put our signs up on lamposts along Tamaki Drive around 4.30am Saturday morning, and take them down around 4pm that same Saturday afternoon. I am wondering whether we are likely to be very badly effected by wind and rain during these hours or whether the bad weathr is more likely to start later in the day on Saturday? While I don't want to risk all our signs being blown out to sea, I dont want to take drastic measures if the cyclone isn't likely to effect Auckland until a bit later in the day. 

Cheers:-) Pip

Hi Pip, it's tricky to work

Hi Pip, it's tricky to work out exactly when the winds will get really rough. There are basically two belts of wind - the first belt is the usual windy weather we sometimes get in Auckland.  The second belt is the one that comes around the centre of the low later on Saturday.  It's hard to give you an exact answer - as these storms can speed up and arrive 6 hours early - or slow down by 12 hours or more - very tricky to pinpoint.  At this stage the wind maps on our site are saying severe gales are *possible* from mid-afternoon onwards in central Auckland on Saturday. But it's really one of those things we wont know for sure until Friday night or evening Saturday itself.

Cheers
WW 

Saturday at Diner en blanc

we are hopefully attending the great outdoor picnic event on Saturday evening somewhere in Auckland. Hows it looking now weatherwise.

Rich

Very sorry to say but it's

Very sorry to say but it's looking pretty wet and windy at this stage - the centre of this cyclone is likely to cross Auckland - or brush it - around midnight/very early Sunday morning.

Keep an eye on our Auckland forecast page for the latest.

Cheers
WW 

My wedding Sunday 16th of March 2014

It's is my wedding day on Sunday in Kumeu it will be an outdoor wedding. Is this cyclone hitting more on Sunday? As you can imagine this is worrying me. I could cope with a bit of rain, but a cyclone :(

Hi Kirst, it looks as though

Hi Kirst, it looks as though the worst will be Saturday PM to Sunday AM.  The winds may stay gale, but from the west, on Sunday - but we hope the sun will come out too.  Keep an eye on our Sunday forecasts, they cover Kumeu too.

All the best for your day - and because every cloud has a silver lining think of the stories you can tell people in the future about being married the day a cyclone hit! :) 

Cheers
Phil 

Hi there, Great service you

Hi there, Great service you are providing. Keep up the great work! We are attending a wedding in the Wairarapa this weekend. How affected do you predict Masterton to be on Satuday/Saturday night?

Hi there - might be a bit wet

Hi there - might be a bit wet and windy - worst of the weather will be Sunday for that part of the country though. Keep up to date with the forecasts and warnings - as timings might chop and change a bit over the next few days.  Thanks for the support too!

- WW

Flights: Thursday and Saturday

I am supposed to be flying AKL to WTGN and back on Thursday and then have a flight to America which leaves on Saturday night.  Is this likely to affect any of these?  I don't want to get stuck in Wellington on Thursday. 

Thanks.

Hi there - Thursday will be

Hi there - Thursday will be ok, as no severe weather in NZ then.  Saturday night there may be severe weather in Auckland but Wellington should be below the severe threshold.  Keep checking our forecasts for the latest as it will change a little - but at this stage Wellington's roughest day will likely be Sunday or Sunday night.

Cheers
WW 

Thank You

Very helpful, much appreciated.

Thank You

Very helpful, much appreciated.

Flights: Thursday and Saturday

I am supposed to be flying AKL to WTGN and back on Thursday and then have a flight to America which leaves on Saturday night.  Is this likely to affect any of these?  I don't want to get stuck in Wellington on Thursday. 

Thanks.

Lusi

How can you make it go away??? Once a year fishing compitetion on this weekend and what happens!!

Flying in Sat. night

We are arriving Auckland from Honolulu Saturday night about 9:55pm.  I am thinking this could be a bumpy (if not delayed) ride?!!!

Hi there JBH - that flight

Hi there JBH - that flight path goes right over my house - and that's around the time the storm will be coming in!  It will be quite interesting to see if they fly around the low or just basically through it!  These big jets fly through very rough weather all around the world - so it's probably more about what is happening on the ground at Auckland Airport that could cause a potential delay for you.  I'll be watching with interest to be honest!  Might be a bit bumpy as you come in.  

All the best!
Philip Duncan 

Lusi

This is a pretty big warning! I remember Cyclone Bola, how does this storm compare? We haven't had such a strong warning like this for a long while. Is it really going to be as bad as it sounds?

The information we are

The information we are providing is very explioit about many parts of the country not having severe weather - but those that are exposed are certainly exposed to tropical rains and damaging gales.  Bola was bad - but from memory was slower moving with a lot more rain.  No storm is ever the same - even if we have an identical low to Bola the massive georgraphy of NZ would utterly change the outcome!

- WW

Hoping for lots of rain.

Without wanting it to be too severe in terms of the Winds, i'm really hoping this dumps a Truckload of rain here in Pukekohe.

Whenever Auckland gets rain it never seems to make it down here, the fields are tinder dry.

All other previous hopes of big rain in the last few months seem to have drifted off and missed us here.

 

Supposed to fly in to

Supposed to fly in to Auckland at 7 Monday morning from the U.S., any chance this storm could alter those flight plans?

Good morning, no it will be

Good morning, no it will be mainly gone by then - maybe a bit windy showers with still but generally Monday eases.

Excellent, thanks for the

Excellent, thanks for the reply!

Good morning, no it will be

Good morning, no it will be mainly gone by then - maybe a bit windy showers with still but generally Monday eases.

cruise

hi,

doing..a..cruise..from..australia..will..be..in..milford..sounds..monday..dunedin..tuesday..acakroa..wednesday..wondering..how..we,,will.affected..with..the..cyclone..approaching..in..the..north..

and..how..will..the..swell.be....

 

txs

nick

sorry..space..bar..not..working

Hi Nick...haha, amazing -

Hi Nick...haha, amazing - love that your space bar isn't working and i dont know what that is making me smile!  I guess because it reminds me of a Simpons episode where Homer become a food critic - and when he went to write his first review for the local paper his typewriter was missing the letter "E".  :)

Not to worry - incredibly you have chosen one of the more sheltered routes this weekend and next week!  The cylone will have minimal impact on you.  All the best - and check out our swell maps in the MAPS link at the top of the page - it will help you out.

Cheers
Phil 

wellington

Hi there any idea how wellington will be affected sat/sun, thanks for the awesome job you do, always come to you first for the weather updates, cheers

Hi there - some risks for

Hi there - some risks for Wellington, but more so for Kapiti and west of the main southern divide (southern North Island divide that is!).  The most details we can give you comes from here: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/forecasts/wellington

Cheers
WW 

ps - thanks for the positive feedback

North Shore, Auckland Saturday 1pm

Hi, we have a corporate function planned at Long Bay Beach on Saturday starting at 1pm. We will be under a permanent hard structured gazebo (open sides) - do you expect the rain to have arrived by this time?

Thanks

Hi there - take a look at our

Hi there - take a look at our current rain and wind maps above - it shows timing of both wind and rain for you in Auckland.  The day looks quite messy - but may well have dry fairly average moments.  The truly stormy stuff - at this very early stage - looks likely to be Sat night/Sun morning.  We'll have more specific info Weds PM.

Cheers

WW

New PLymouth WOMAD

Hi Just wondering how this will be for The WOMAD festival on in New Plymouth Frid Sat and Sun... any idea?