Cyclone Gita: Latest possible tracking into NZ next week (+6 Maps)

Severe Cyclone Gita remains a Category 4 cyclone this morning 1700kms directly north of Auckland, New Zealand. The cyclone is tracking westwards at 13km/h and will start to track more WSW in the coming 24 hours, before turning more southerly this weekend in the Tasman Sea.

Gita is out over open waters in favourable conditions to retain strength and will hold at Category 4 or a strong Cat 3 storm over the next couple of days and weekend, based on numerous modelling.

The Fiji Met Service says it has central air pressure of 950hPa, up from 927hPa on Wednesday morning.

Models are still in agreement that the centre of Gita will hit the western side of the New Zealand next week, most likely the western side of the North Island. However they are still on different pages about when it comes to timing. Gita could arrive in New Zealand as early as Monday night and as late as Thursday morning.

Most models do agree Tuesday and Wednesday will be the likely time that Gita hits New Zealand.

Gita may also combine with a southerly to produce extra heavy rain where the tropical northerlies and cooler southerlies converge. Flooding risks could be increased due to this in the upper South Island and lower North Island. While Gita will become an extra-tropical cyclone once it moves into New Zealand it may still retain Category 2 or 1 strength winds, which means powercuts and some wind damage is possible - but the storm is too far out from reaching us to be able to lock in any specific severe weather risks at this early stage.

Most long range forecasts agree it should be gone by next Friday though (8 days from now). aims to fine tune this forecast even more so on Friday and Saturday.

- Forecast tracking and 'cone of uncertainty' by JTWC (US Government)

- Gita's history and future / Fiji Met Service

- Gita may track halfway between Norfolk Island and Noumea, New Caledonia - if this happens it will spare both places significant damage, but is very close to be brushed by such a powerful storm. Residents in both places need to be up to date with forecasts and modelling as this may change as the storm gets closer. Fiji Met Service.



- Colourised satellite map / Himawari and NOAA (Japanese and US Governments)



North Island Holiday

We are landing in Auckland on Sunday for a family North Island holiday. I'm thinking of adjusting our plans and hunkering down in Auckland for the beginning of the week. Any recommendations?

Hi there Best bet is to use

Hi there

Best bet is to use these rain maps here -

Scroll through the various times / days and you'll be able to see where showers or areas of rain are, what days are dry etc :)

Hope that helps!


The latest from the NZ model

The latest from the NZ model shows it crossing the top of the south island, any comment on the accuracy of this model?

Can you provide a link to

Can you provide a link to it?

Here is the

Here is the link

From what I can tell there

From what I can tell there are no NZ models (from our Government) in the public domain. These maps look to come from GFS (which is NOAA and the US Government). The maps we display are from GFS also - and MetVew displays GFS. GFS is currently swinging the storm further west than other models and making landfall further south. It may change back to the north in the coming days. More models pick the western North Island for landfall at this early stage - but still too far out to lock in.

Philip D


Hi Phil This is very interesting & your prediction of the models changing seems to proving correct. Perhaps we may now see it heading further south before making landfall? South Island maybe? Looking at that polar jet joining it will as you say beef up the rainfall levels that is for sure It does look potentially very nasty Cheers Dave

summer of two halves

this is definitely the summer of two halves.

Definitely! So dry to start

Definitely! So dry to start with now wet with tropical storms.


Tracking error over time

I would love to see a graphic which shows how the predicted track changes over the next few days. i.e. is the predicted arrival point in NZ creeping slowly north or south as we get closer to it arriving. I have noticed a trend in the past, but haven't seen anything which analyses this properly.

New Spaghetti picture?

Yes, agreed. I too would love to see new spaghetti pictures! I know you say Philip they are much the same, but still want to see new ones please!

Here you go :)  Click the

Here you go :) 

Click the image to go to their website


Hi Roger - this is the story

Hi Roger - this is the story we ran a full week ago when we first said a cyclone could hit NZ.  The models aren't too far apart from back then to what we're seeing now but they have moved the arrival of the storm from originally being this Saturday to now looking likely to be next Tuesday/Weds. Your idea would be interesting to see!


Philip Duncan

Thanks for that, and the

Thanks for that, and the spaghetti models - I didn't know that existed :) If I could get hold of the raw (historical) track data which they use for the spaghetti models I could do it myself, but I haven't found that yet.


Hi Phil My son has a school camp planned for next Wednesday to Friday in Waikanae. The camp is flood prone as it is near a river. I plan to keep updated on your posts - being some of the rain numbers are quite concerning 200 - 300 mm. What are the chances of heavy flooding rain in this region . Just wanting to know if I should include an inflatable raft when I pack

I'd suggest they plan to

I'd suggest they plan to postpone until the storm has passed. There is a chance of serious flooding from this system based on the past few days of models in the central North Island. In saying that, still too early to lock in severe weather possibilities yet.


Hi Phil, I'm booked to walk the Routeburn track on Monday and the way this picture is looking at the moment is making that idea look ghastly! Do you think that southern storm will hit that area because, from your maps, it looks like Gita is going to have an effect as well as the southern storm! A bit of rain wouldn't worry me but being in a severe storm doesn't fill me with pleasurable anticipation....

Yeah it's not the best

Yeah it's not the best weather to be in the outdoors Phyll! We're going to put a story out tomorrow with out thoughts on people being outdoors next week and the potential weather risks and hazards with a tropical cyclone coming in. Keep up to date with the forecasts and upcoming warnings over the coming days then make your decision. It does look rough next week and all of NZ is at some risk at this stage.


Thanks Phil I will keep an

Thanks Phil I will keep an eye on your updates but I have let the school know that the weather outlook is not the best. I think by Saturday we should know more clearly how the Apiti coast will be effected.